In Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken observed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fostered deep fear in a region that remains wary of Moscow’s intentions. 

“If a powerful country is willing to try to erase the borders of a sovereign neighbor by force, what’s to stop it from doing the same to others?” he asked.  

Blinken made the case that U.S. support for Ukraine helps prevent other countries from falling victim to imperial ambitions. 

“That’s exactly why we remain committed to standing for the sovereignty, the territorial integrity, the independence not only of Ukraine, but for countries across Central Asia and, indeed, around the world,” Blinken told journalists in Tashkent.

But some analysts say that although countries are receptive to the U.S. views, questions remain about Washington’s commitment to developing economic and energy ties in the region, as well as uncertainty about its Afghanistan policy.  

Astana’s posture 

Kazakhstan and Russia share a border longer than 7,500 kilometers, currently under demarcation.  

Continuing to thread a needle since the invasion, Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi said Astana appreciated U.S. support, yet emphasized that his country is not threatened by Russia.

“Kazakhstan is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, Collective Security Treaty Organization, Commonwealth of Independent States with other states surrounding Russia. So we consider our relationship as an alliance in the framework of all these multilateral structures,” Tileuberdi told reporters alongside Blinken.

“Kazakhstan has very historic ties with both Russia and Ukraine. Our economies are interconnected … that’s why this situation is quite heavy for us, for our economy, and we are trying to avoid any negative effects from the sanctions.”   

Tileuberdi also highlighted that Kazakhstan is America’s top economic partner in Central Asia. Bilateral trade turnover exceeded $3 billion in 2022, more than 37 percent higher than the previous year. Total foreign direct investment from the U.S. surpasses $62 billion, with about 590 businesses running on American capital.  

Blinken applauded Kazakhstan for hosting more than 200,000 Russian citizens who have fled their country since the beginning of the war. And Kazakhstan has provided humanitarian supplies to Ukraine.  

The Biden administration strongly endorses President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s reform program. “We look forward to seeing additional concrete steps,” Blinken said, “expanding public participation in the political process, increasing government accountability, curbing corruption, introducing presidential term limits, protecting human rights.”   

US help for Central Asia?  

The U.S. set up the Economic Resilience Initiative for Central Asia last year with $25 million “to expand regional trade routes, establish new export markets, attract and leverage greater private sector investment.” In Astana, Blinken announced an additional $25 million for this program.  

“It’s not a very serious gesture,” said Jennifer Murtazashvili, governance and development expert at the University of Pittsburgh. “$50 million is insignificant compared to what other powers are bringing in.” 

Murtazashvili thinks the U.S. can truly be a unique partner but sees Washington failing to offer a clear strategic reason to be in Central Asia.  

“None of these countries want to be Russia’s vassals. They want more alternatives in all directions, including to the south via Afghanistan. But America does not seem to want to talk about Afghanistan now,” Murtazashvili said.  

Blinken joined the C5+1 dialogue in Astana with five Central Asian foreign ministers and held bilateral meetings with each of them.

Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have pressed the U.S. not to isolate Afghanistan following the Taliban’s 2021 victory. “Afghanistan is part of Central Asia and Washington has a moral obligation to help,” Murtazashvili asserts.  

In Tashkent, talking with the U.S. delegation, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for active engagement within the U.N. and support of regional infrastructure projects to aid Afghanistan’s people and economy.   

Blinken acknowledged the Uzbek government’s “generous aid to the people of Afghanistan, from electricity to emergency humanitarian assistance, especially to women and girls.”  

“We should understand where these governments are at present and work with them based on mutual interests,” Murtazashvili said.  

U.S. officials say that is exactly what Washington is doing: focusing on strengthening and diversifying energy and commercial linkages, so Central Asians are not dependent on one country or source for trade and investment. “There’s a very strong potential market here, and the more connectivity we have among the countries … the more investment it’s going to attract from outside of Central Asia,” Blinken said.  

He pointed out that the U.S. spent $25 million in English-language education in Uzbekistan for the past five years, training 15,000 teachers and providing textbooks to 10,000 schools.  

Promote good governance, increase assistance in education and technology,  Murtazashvili said. “But Washington does not have a credible record in promoting democracy.”  

“Leaders in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have overpromised but underdelivered. They are being very shortsighted,” she added, assessing that their respective publics are more demanding and critical than ever, noting mass protests of recent years. 

Human rights promotion 

“The U.S. can walk and chew gum when it comes to taking a principled stand on these countries’ backsliding on human rights,” said Steve Swerdlow, a law professor at the University of Southern California, who is also a longtime Central Asia researcher.  

“Despite enormous frustrations in urging Astana and Tashkent to pursue reforms, successive U.S. administrations have done well in securing the release of imprisoned human rights defenders and journalists —something that unfortunately Washington must still invest political capital into.” 

For U.S. policy in Central Asia to deliver results, Swerdlow said, “Washington should stand up for those courageously and peacefully pushing for openness and accountability.”  

Uzbekistan’s acting foreign minister, Bakhtiyor Saidov, underlined America’s continued support of Mirziyoyev’s reform agenda “aimed at ensuring good governance, rule of law, human rights, as well as deepening good and friendly relationships with our neighbors.”  

Washington wants to see the full implementation of this agenda, Blinken reiterated, including delivering on commitments to defend religious freedom and press freedom. “The progress that Uzbekistan has made on labor rights shows just how transformative that agenda can be.” 

He urged Uzbekistan to fully and transparently investigate allegations of human rights violations “committed by law enforcement officers during July 2022 unrest, holding accountable those responsible.” Blinken was referring to mass violence in Karakalpakstan in western Uzbekistan. 

“We talked about the importance of media freedom, having a strong space for civil society, and we did discuss briefly as well the constitutional reform process.”  

Blinken underscored the importance of having a vibrant and well-resourced local media.   

“It’s certainly true that Russia has built up a very strong and long-enduring propaganda and misinformation system that is felt here … and the best answer to that, of course, is the strongest possible environment for genuinely free, independent, open media to bring the facts to people and let them make up their minds,” Blinken said.
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Pakistan’s economic crisis is hitting the health sector hard. Pakistan relies heavily on imports such as raw material needed to manufacture medicines and complex surgical equipment. The medical supply chain is coming under increased pressure due to the country’s low foreign exchange reserves and declining rupee. Sarah Zaman reports from Islamabad. Camera and edit: Wajid Asad, Waqar Ahmad
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Pakistan’s currency fell 7% against the U.S. dollar Thursday as the government struggles to persuade the International Monetary Fund to resume lending to the cash-strapped country to help avert a default on its foreign debt.

The Pakistani rupee has weakened to a record low in recent weeks after foreign exchange companies were allowed in January to remove a cap on the exchange rate. The currency’s official value closed at 285.09 rupees against the dollar Thursday versus 266.11 the previous day.

The market-determined currency exchange rate is a key IMF demand for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government to complete before the lender’s board approves a funding tranche of more than $1 billion to Pakistan. 

Islamabad has since failed to secure the tranche, which was initially expected to be disbursed in December as part of a stalled $6.5 billion IMF bailout program, over a lack of progress on fiscal consolidation.

“A delay in IMF funding is creating uncertainty in the currency market,” said Mohammed Sohail of Topline Securities, a Karachi-based brokerage house.

The IMF program is key to unlocking other external bilateral and multilateral financing sources for Pakistan. The drawn-out negotiations between the two sides are putting pressure on government finances and the country’s more than 220 million population.  

Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves have dwindled to precarious levels and stood at just over $3 billion, hardly enough for three weeks of imports.

Inflation has also skyrocketed to 31.5%, according to official data published Wednesday. Food and fuel prices have soared beyond the means of many Pakistanis.

Decades of financial mismanagement, corruption, and political instability are blamed for pushing Pakistan’s economy to the brink of default. A global energy crisis and last year’s devastating floods across the country have worsened the crisis. 

The Sharif administration has already taken most other actions to keep the talks with the IMF on track. They include a hike in fuel and energy tariffs, the withdrawal of subsidies in export and power sectors and generating more revenue through new taxation in a supplementary budget.

Analysts anticipated the fiscal adjustments would likely further fuel inflation in Pakistan whether or not a deal with the IMF has been reached. 

Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar rejected reports as “malicious rumors” that the country was on the verge of a default.

“This is not only completely false but also belie the facts. SBP forex reserves have been increasing and are almost U.S. $1 billion higher than four weeks ago, despite making all external due payments on time,” Dar tweeted Thursday.

“Our negotiations with IMF are about to conclude and we expect to sign staff level agreement with IMF by next week. All economic indicators are slowly moving in the right direction,” Dar asserted. He added that foreign commercial banks had started extending facilities to Pakistan.

China, a longtime ally of Pakistan, is the only country that has helped Islamabad get a $700 million loan facility from the China Development Bank last month.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, while speaking at last month’s Munich Security Conference, urged Pakistan to collect more taxes from the wealthy and spend the money on the poor.

“Why should rich people benefit from subsidies when the country faces such a difficult task? Why should rich people and businesses not pay their taxes when the country has such tremendous challenges?” she asked while responding to a question about the delay in reaching a deal with Pakistan.

“In my view what is at stake is fairness in society and we will stand for this fairness, of course, very much hoping that we can get to a good point in moving the policy in Pakistan in the right direction,” Georgieva said. 

Pakistan has long been under fire for not imposing taxes on the wealthy in a country where less than 2% pay income taxes. The rest evade it either in collusion with tax authorities or by exploiting loopholes in the legal system, say financial experts. 

The World Food Program, in its latest assessment, has warned the ongoing economic crisis in Pakistan is “progressively deteriorating, with a depreciated currency, increased food and fuel prices and uncertainty over resuming a $6.5 billion funding package with the IMF.”

The statement added that flood-affected people “are resorting to negative coping strategies that include the sale of income-producing assets, taking on additional debt, withdrawing children from school, and skipping meals.”

Some information for this report came from Reuters.
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Foreign ministers of the Group of 20 convened Thursday in the Indian capital, New Delhi, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged countries to work together even if they do not agree on some issues.

“As Foreign Ministers, it is but natural that your discussions are affected by the geopolitical tensions of the day,” Modi said in a video address. “However, as the leading economies of the world, we also have a responsibility towards those who are not in this room.”

He said the world looks to the G-20 to address growth, development, economic and disaster resilience, financial stability, corruption, terrorism, and food and energy security.

“We should not allow issues that we cannot resolve together to come in the way of those we can,” Modi said.

Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told Thursday’s meeting that the group “bears an exceptional responsibility” as the world faces multiple crises. Among those challenges, Jaishankar said, were the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain issues, secondary effects of ongoing conflicts and disruption from climate events.

The G-20 meeting comes amid deepening geopolitical tensions sparked by the war in Ukraine, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang among the attendees.

Besides the Ukraine war, tensions between Washington and Beijing have also flared after the United States shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon over its east coast last month.

India’s foreign ministry said the war in Ukraine would be an important part of the talks.

“Yes, given the nature and the developing situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, naturally that will be an important point of discussions,” Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra, India’s top diplomat, told a news conference Wednesday. India holds the G-20 presidency this year.

However, analysts said the foreign ministers meeting could see a replay of tensions that overshadowed a meeting of the group’s finance ministers hosted by India last week. That meeting concluded without issuing a joint statement following objections by China and Russia to language that sought to condemn Moscow’s aggression.

At the foreign ministers gathering, the United States and its allies will push the group to adopt a firm stance on the Ukraine war.

The European Union said the success of the meeting will be measured by what it could do about the Ukraine conflict. “This war has to be condemned,” Josep Borrell, the European Union’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, told reporters in New Delhi. “I hope, I am sure that India’s diplomatic capacity will be used in order to make Russia understand that this war has to finish.”

Russia, for its part, said it considers the G-20 a prestigious forum “where balanced consensus decisions should be made in the interests of all humankind.”

A statement issued by the Russian Embassy in New Delhi late Tuesday slammed the U.S. and its allies, saying their “destructive policies” have already “put the world on the brink of a disaster, provoked a rollback in socio-economic development and seriously aggravated the situation of the poorest countries.”

Analysts said that given the deep divisions, India faces a tough challenge in forging a joint position at the end of the talks.

“It looks like it is going to be a difficult ride. The meeting will see a greater contestation over Ukraine,” according to Harsh Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

Pointing out that China and Russia blocked the joint statement at the meeting of G-20 finance ministers last week, Pant said the presence of the U.S. foreign secretary along with the Russian and Chinese foreign ministers at the same forum “will call for a difficult balancing act by India to deliver a G-20 outcome.”

Despite the diplomatic challenge it faces, India expressed optimism the meeting will focus on problems being faced by many countries such as food, energy and fertilizer security – issues New Delhi has been pushing during its G-20 presidency.

“What is the understanding they develop, not just on Russia-Ukraine conflict but also the impact of that on the rest of the world, the challenges the developing countries face, those are equally important to focus on,” Kwatra said.

In all, representatives of 40 countries, including some that are not members of the bloc, such as Bangladesh, and multilateral organizations are due to participate in the meeting.

A gathering of foreign ministers of the Quad countries – the United States, India, Australia and Japan – is scheduled on the sidelines in New Delhi. The Quad is an alliance of countries that want to check China’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.
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De facto Taliban authorities have announced the reopening of state-run universities in the Afghan capital, Kabul, and several other cities, but say only male students will be allowed to attend.

“According to a decision by the Supreme Council for Higher Education,” reads a short statement from the Taliban’s Ministry of Higher Education, “studies of the male students at governmental higher education institutions in the colder provinces will officially start from [March 6] of the current year.”

Schools and universities go on annual winter break in about 24 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces.

The Islamist government banned higher education for female students last year, saying women had not appropriately observed gender-based religious restrictions under the prior government, which was backed by the United States.

Since seizing power in August 2021, the Taliban have also shut down secondary schools for female students, saying the ban is temporary.

“Taliban are running out of time to make a decision on reopening girls’ secondary, high school and universities,” said Orzala Nemat, an Afghan activist and researcher at the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London. “This is the demand of the general public, community elders, religious scholars and even some of their own members feel embarrassed to support this un-Islamic and unjustified act.”

Afghanistan is the only country where women and girls are officially barred from education and work, according to human rights groups.

The gender-based discriminatory policy has been maintained even while it costs hundreds of millions of dollars for Afghanistan’s beleaguered economy, the United Nations has reported. 

Possible internal divisions

Facing domestic and global condemnation, some Taliban officials have reportedly shown disapproval of the government’s misogynistic policies.

“The Taliban leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, appears to insist upon these measures out of personal conviction and to assert his authority over the movement and the country,” the International Crisis Group said in a report last month.

Not seen in public, Akhundzada is nevertheless revered as a god among the Taliban. He has no term limit and has unchecked powers over everything within the Taliban government.

“The Taliban are in an internal power struggle,” said Pashtana Durrani, director of Learn Afghanistan, a nongovernment organization supporting education for girls and women.

“Right now, the Taliban are in a stalemate where they can’t remove or impeach the amir, and the amir is a man who thinks women in schools and universities are haram,” Durrani told VOA, using the Islamic term for forbidden.

For Farahnaz Forotan, a prominent female journalist who fled Afghanistan after the Taliban captured Kabul, the denial of education for girls and women is a sadistic power play by the Taliban leader with catastrophic consequences for millions of Afghans.

“How can a poor country compensate for two years of no education for girls? The losses are catastrophic and irreparable,” said Forotan, who spoke to VOA from her home in the U.S. state of Maryland.

Cracking down on internal dissent, the Taliban have defied international calls, including from renowned Islamic institutions, to lift the bans on women’s work and education, saying the world should not interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.

“It’s an Islamic obligation and in the national interest of Afghanistan to have its women as educated as its men,” said the University of London’s Nemat. “A well-educated new generation of women and men will eventually … dismantle the vicious cycle of colonialism in the country where our political leaders become a pawn in the hands of the superpowers of their time.”
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Lawyers for ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is serving a 33-year prison sentence on what are widely seen as contrived charges, have been denied meetings with her as they prepare her appeals, legal officials familiar with her situation said.

In December, a court sentenced Suu Kyi, 77, to seven years in prison on corruption charges in the last of a string of criminal cases against her, leaving her with a total of 33 years to serve. That was the last time her lawyers were able to see her in person.

The army seized power and detained Suu Kyi on Feb. 1, 2021, the day when her party would have begun a second-five-year term in office after winning a landslide victory in a November 2020 general election.

Her supporters and independent analysts say the charges against her are an attempt to legitimize the military’s seizure of power and keep her from returning to politics.

Most appeals rejected

Most of the appeals that lawyers have filed on her behalf have already been rejected, but some are still being processed, a legal official who insisted on anonymity for fear of being punished by the authorities told The Associated Press. Her lawyers, who had been a source of information on the proceedings, were served with gag orders in late 2021.

Currently, the lawyers are waiting for an appointment with the Supreme Court to hear their appeal of her convictions last December on five corruption charges.

The lawyers applied to prison authorities in mid-January for permission to meet with Suu Kyi to discuss the appeals, but as of Tuesday, they had not received any confirmation they can do so, the legal official said.

According to the colonial-era jail manual still in use in Myanmar’s prison system, every newly convicted prisoner should be allowed reasonable facilities for seeing or communicating with relatives or friends to prepare an appeal or to procure bail. Prisoners can communicate with any person to arrange appeals of their conviction, the law says.

Because her lawyers have been unable to meet with Suu Kyi, they cannot receive her instructions on handling her appeals or even confirm her health situation, according to a second legal official, who also asked not to be identified because he fears punishment by the authorities,

The lawyers are allowed to send parcels for Suu Kyi via prison authorities once a week.

A spokesperson for the Prisons Department did not respond to inquiries about the lawyers’ assertions. According to the jail manual, prison superintendents are allowed to refuse to grant prisoners permission for meetings if they think it is against the public interest, or if another sufficient cause exists.

Convicted for possessing walkie-talkies

Suu Kyi was convicted on a range of charges, including illegally importing and possessing walkie-talkies, violating coronavirus restrictions, breaching the country’s official secrets act, sedition and election fraud.

The military-installed government has not allowed any outside party to meet with Suu Kyi since it seized power, despite international pressure for talks including her that could ease the country’s political crisis.

Myanmar security forces have killed at least 3,073 civilians and arrested 19,954, according to a detailed list compiled by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a watchdog group that tracks killings and arrests.
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Myanmar Rohingya refugees living in camps in Bangladesh and the aid agencies helping them are warning of more hunger, crime and death in the wake of new cuts to World Food Program rations.

The United Nations agency said a $125 million funding shortfall was forcing it to drop the value of its monthly food vouchers in the camps from $12 to $10 per head as of March 1. 

This marks the first cut the WFP has made to the vouchers since 2017, when a brutal campaign of arson, rape and murder by the security forces of Buddhist-majority Myanmar drove more than three-quarters of a million mostly Muslim Rohingya into Bangladesh.

“This is a devastating blow to the Rohingya and an equally devastating blow to the humanitarian community,” WFP Country Director Domenico Scalpelli said in a statement announcing the move. “With other critical services already dwindling, the repercussions of the ration cut — even if just two dollars — will be dire.”

Malnutrition, he added, “will certainly rise.”

Besides the modest stipends some of the refugees earn working for non-government groups inside the camps, Bangladesh forbids them from paid employment, citing issues of law and order. Some slip in and out of the camps regardless to find paid work in nearby towns and villages. But refugees tell VOA that new fencing and stepped-up police checks are making that much tougher to do.

Mohammad Akmal Shareef, Bangladesh country director of Action Against Hunger, says that makes the WFP vouchers the main, and often, only source of food for the roughly 1 million Rohingya now living in the sprawling camps.

Like the WFP, he said cutting the vouchers would have “direct implications” on malnutrition.

“This means there will be a significant cut in terms of food, what we are supplying to each household, and it’s a matter of great concern,” he said. “Already when you had the $12, I think we were struggling to supply the quality food what I think these people deserve.”

Even with the vouchers at $12, the WFP says nearly half of all families in the camps are not eating enough and that malnutrition is “widespread.” According to the U.N. agency, some 40% of the children have stunted growth and 12% suffer from acute malnutrition. 

“We say that if the malnourished children proportion is about 10% of your population, it is an emergency,” said Dr. Zahid Hassan Zihad, who helps run a group of clinics for malnourished children in the camps.

Zihad said the rate has dropped significantly in the five years since the clinics opened. But at 12%, “it is still an emergency,” he added, and could worsen in the wake of the cuts.

Refugees and aid groups say spiraling inflation makes the cuts feel deeper still.

“I feel so worried,” said one refugee, speaking on condition of anonymity for his safety. 

He shared a recent month’s shopping list for his family of four using their vouchers: 52 kg of rice, 2 kg of chickpeas, 1 kg of flour, 21 eggs and a sack of onions, plus some cooking oil, garlic, salt and sugar.

“Right now, $12 per each one, it is … not enough, so how can we feed [ourselves] by $10? So, it may be we need to face more difficulties,” he said. “Now most of the families are taking the decision not to eat two times per day rice.”

Human rights advocates and aid groups are warning that the cuts will lead to more looting, prostitution and child marriage as the refugees, barred from earning their living legally, try to make up for the shortfall any way they can.

“When there is pressure, as we have seen in previous responses in different places wherever there is a refugee crisis, people tend to go for more negative coping mechanisms,” said Akmal Shareef.

The refugees echoed those fears.

“If the ration amount is cut, I don’t know what the situation will look like in the refugee camps, because when a person could not [put] enough food in their stomach, then they will engage in bad activities. They will try to loot from others, they will try to do bad things to earn money because there is not any source of income,” said Kyaw Moe Thu, using an alias for fear of reprisal from local police for speaking out.

Rising levels of crime and despair in the camps are already driving a growing number of refugees to flee by boat for Malaysia or Indonesia, Muslim-majority countries where they hope to find work, an education and a husband or wife.

The U.N. says more than 3,500 Rohingya attempted the perilous sea journey from Bangladesh or Myanmar last year, the most since 2015. It estimates that roughly 1 in 10 of them went missing or died along the way, mostly from hunger or drowning; the boats they board tend to be in poor shape, often breaking down or capsizing in open water.

Despite the risks, Kyaw Moe Thu expects the dwindling rations to drive even more Rohingya across the sea.

“They know how hard the journey is, they know there is danger, there is risk during the way. But even knowing, they are going, because the situation in the camp is very, very rough,” he said.

In a statement of its own, Save the Children said the refugees need more support, not less. It called the funding shortfall forcing the WFP to cut its monthly rations “unconscionable” and urged donors to rethink their priorities to “prevent a hunger crisis.”

Without an “immediate funding boost,” the WFP says it may have to cut the rations a second time this year.

Akmal Shareef, of Action Against Hunger, says he cannot even image the impact a second cut would have.

“I don’t really want to think about that,” he said. “That will be a horrible situation.” 

Shaikh Azizur Rahman contributed to this report.
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