washington — Myanmar’s military has called on ethnic armed groups and anti-junta resistance forces to end their armed struggle and participate in proposed national elections. While this call to cease fighting was quickly rejected by opposition forces, it marked a significant development in Myanmar’s three-year civil war.

Ye Myo Hein, a senior expert on Myanmar at the United States Institute of Peace, said the military’s call to cease fighting, made public in a statement Thursday, was aimed to appease China.

“The SAC [State Administration Council] is making overtures to Beijing,” he posted on social media, pointing out recent statements in which the military referred to China as Myanmar’s closest ally.

The statement posted by the SAC, Myanmar’s military regime, proposed that ethnic groups, including the People’s Defense Forces (PDF) — the armed wing of the anti-junta movement — resolve political issues through peaceful means and electoral participation.

Though the SAC did not mention the National Unity Government (NUG), the PDF is largely aligned with the shadow government formed by former lawmakers and junta opponents. The SAC argued that the ongoing conflict has caused significant losses to the country.

“Considering the losses of the state due to armed struggle and terrorism, ethnic armed organizations and PDF terrorists are invited to contact the state to resolve political issues through party politics,” the SAC stated.

Opposition response

Opposition leaders swiftly dismissed the military’s appeal to cease fighting.

Sui Khar, foreign minister of the Chinland government, which controls much of Chin state in western Myanmar, and vice chairman of the NUG-affiliated Chin National Front, told VOA the military’s statement was not a genuine invitation, as it was limited to political parties and elections.

“It sounded like they were forcing others to join their own agenda,” Sui Khar said.

The NUG also rejected the junta’s invitation, calling it a ploy to create disunity among resistance forces, and vowed to continue the Spring Revolution — the resistance movement against military rule — and to work toward establishing a federal democratic union.

Soe Thuya Zaw, a commander of the Mandalay PDF, described the offer as deceptive. “It’s like hanging a goat’s head but selling dog meat,” he wrote on Facebook, using a Myanmar proverb to highlight the military’s history of broken promises.

Escalation in Lashio

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic armed group with close ties to China, has frustrated the military by capturing key territories along the Myanmar-China border. Despite the junta’s attempts to negotiate, ongoing airstrikes cast doubt on the prospects for peace.

On Friday, fighter jets bombed Lashio, a major city in northern Shan state and a critical trade route to China, currently under MNDAA control. According to the MNDAA, the strikes targeted civilian areas, killing two people and injuring six.

“They talk about resolving political problems through dialogue, yet continue bombing. So, the offer is impossible,” said Tu Maung Nyo, a writer and political analyst based on the Thailand-Myanmar border. “The military is calling for negotiations because they can’t win on the battlefield. It’s just a way out of a crisis.”

China’s role in path forward

Analysts say Beijing has been pressuring both Myanmar’s SAC and ethnic armed groups to stabilize the situation, primarily to protect its interests along the shared border and safeguard investments. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Myanmar earlier this year signaled Beijing’s desire for a stable Myanmar under military control without prolonged conflict.

“China wants stability,” said Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-Myanmar relations expert based in China. “Their top priorities are ensuring bombs don’t fall near their territory, preventing refugees from crossing into China, and protecting Chinese investments in Myanmar. China also wants to ensure the safety of its people in Myanmar.”

But the situation remains complicated. While China provides political and economic backing to the junta, analysts argue that it also covertly supports some ethnic armed groups along its border. The MNDAA, for example, is widely believed to receive Chinese support. The military’s recent warmth toward China is seen by many as a survival tactic.

Tu Maung Nyo said the stakes are high for China. Beijing seeks stability but recognizes that as long as the SAC remains in power, peace may be elusive.

Although China continues to support the military, it is likely applying pressure behind the scenes for a resolution, especially as regional powers, including the Quad nations — Australia, India, Japan and the United States — express concern over Myanmar’s future.

“China may even use its leverage by withholding weapons sales or cutting off the military’s jet fuel supply,” Hla Kyaw Zaw said, noting that such actions would align with recent calls from the Quad members.

Tu Maung Nyo said outside influences have always played a role in Myanmar, which occupies a strategic position on the Indian Ocean.

“The events in Myanmar, from the start of the civil war to today, have always seen the participation of major powers. While some may call it interference, I see it as inevitable participation,” he said. “But now, the military seems to have a big problem deciding which side to rely on.”
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taipei, taiwan — Drone companies from Taiwan and the U.S. are exploring ways to work together in a market dominated by China, bringing together Taiwanese enterprises and more than two dozen American companies and officials this week in Taipei.

Attacks by swarms of drones have become an almost daily occurrence in Russia’s war in Ukraine, with both Kyiv and Moscow using unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, to carry out strikes and defend themselves from attacks.

As the threat China poses to Taiwan grows, many see drones playing a crucial role in a potential conflict there as well. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has tasked his troops to be prepared for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.

And with Chinese companies dominating the market and critical resources used in making drones, analysts say it is important for Taiwan and the U.S. to find ways to create a China-free supply chain.

At a drone expo at National Taiwan University in Taipei this week, hundreds of Taiwanese producers met with several officials from the U.S. Department of Defense and Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, which serves as the de facto U.S. embassy on the island.  

Patrick Mason, the deputy assistant secretary of the Army for defense exports and cooperation, and Andrew Hong, deputy director of the cyber portfolio of the Defense Department’s Defense Innovation Unit, or DIU, spoke at the expo. Mason spoke about “The Pathway to U.S.-Taiwan Defense Industrial Cooperation” and Hong’s remarks centered on “Defense Innovation with Taiwan.”   

For U.S. drone companies, the forum offered the potential to expand business ventures with Taiwan and grow the bilateral trade partnership, according to a statement from the American Institute in Taiwan on Wednesday.

Demand for drone technology in Taiwan is large, especially given China’s drone production prowess. Chinese drone company DJI held 76% of the consumer market for household drones in 2021. These drones have also been deployed on the battlefield in places like Ukraine and Myanmar, a practice that the Chinese government and DJI have condemned.

Hsu Chih-hsiang, an assistant researcher at the Institute of National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, described drones as “combat force-multipliers,” and explained that, even in peacetime, China has already begun sending large drones into Taiwanese territory and even uses small civilian drones to hover in Taiwanese airspace in the Kinmen Islands.

In 2022, former Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen made the drone industry a development priority in Taiwan. Since then, Taiwan has established the “Drone National Team” program, subsidizing domestic production of these systems.  

Taiwanese Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo revealed in mid-September that Taiwan would procure 3,422 units of six types of domestically produced military drones, including mini-drones, before 2028, and that Taiwan would also separately acquire two types of missile-type attack drones, totaling 976 units, before 2026, to enhance precision strikes and anti-armor capabilities. 

Wang Shiow-wen, who is also an assistant researcher at the Institute of National Defense and Security Research, said American support of Taiwanese drone modernization presents an opportunity for Taiwan to break through barriers in production capacity and ensure the security of the supply chain for drones.

Taiwan’s government has set a goal for domestic manufacturers to produce 15,000 drones per month by 2028. That is three times current production levels, according to Taiwan’s government-funded Central News Agency.

Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, said the three most important considerations for the U.S. and Taiwan in the future of drone production without Chinese components are cost, mass production capacity, and the impact that this might have on American and Taiwanese budgets, technology transfer and scientific development.  

China strongly opposes collaboration and engagement between Taiwan and the United States, and it was watching the gathering in Taipei closely.  

Chinese state media criticized the visit to Taiwan by the delegation of American companies and defense officials, as well as efforts to create a “China-free” drone supply chain.  

Liu Heping, a Chinese commentator, said that by attempting to make Taiwan the “democratic drone supply chain center,” the United States and Taiwan were preparing for a “vigorous arms race” with China.

Katherine Michaelson contributed to this report.
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Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia — Ethnic Chin refugees from Myanmar in Malaysia are accusing the United Nations refugee agency UNHCR of abuse and of not providing necessary protection, potentially putting lives at risk. 

Hundreds of members of the Alliance of Chin Refugees held a demonstration Thursday outside the UNHCR office in Malaysia’s capital, Kuala Lumpur.  

Chins, most of whom are Christians, are an ethnic and religious minority in Buddhist-majority Myanmar who face repression that has led to violent conflicts there. In recent decades, waves of ethnic Chins have fled the country, many to Malaysia. 

U.N. figures from last month show there are about 27,250 ethnic Chin refugees and asylum-seekers in Malaysia registered with UNHCR. But James Bawl Thang Bik, chairman of the Alliance of Chin Refugees, told VOA on Thursday there are tens of thousands more who are not registered.  

He also said the UNHCR takes too long to make decisions for asylum-seekers who have applied for refugee status. “The process can take years,” he said.  

VOA asked UNHCR Malaysia how long it typically takes for an applicant to get a decision on their case but did not receive an immediate answer. 

Further complicating matters, Malaysia has not signed the United Nations refugee convention and does not officially recognize refugees, viewing them as illegal immigrants. 

UNHCR registration provides some protection that typically prevents arrest, but the refugees are still not allowed to attend government schools or work legally — although many take off-the-books jobs, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation by employers, according to migrant rights groups. 

James Bawl Thang Bik said that after Myanmar’s 2021 coup approximately 50 ethnic Chin Myanmar soldiers and police officers fled to Malaysia because they refused to fight for Myanmar’s military. He said some of them have been arrested and are in detention in Malaysia because they lack UNHCR documentation.  

“If these former soldiers and policemen get sent back to Myanmar their lives could be in danger,” he said. 

“UNHCR needs to prioritize these types of cases and register them quickly.” 

UNHCR documentation also gives refugees access to medical care at public hospitals for lower prices than what foreigners typically pay but the Alliance of Chin Refugees said asylum-seekers without UNHCR documentation frequently need medical treatment but cannot get it.  

“The UNHCR needs to meet with these people immediately and give them the necessary status and documentation,” Bik said, mentioning cases of people with broken bones and serious infections. 

Responding to media inquiries after Thursday’s demonstration, the United Nations refugee agency released a written statement that said: “UNHCR wishes to emphasize that we recognize the frustration felt by many refugee communities living in the complex protection environment in Malaysia where they lack legal status, are unable to access legal work or formal education. … UNHCR is doing its utmost to protect and assist refugees. This includes prioritizing protection and assistance interventions for highly vulnerable refugees.” 

Additionally, Bik said he has received reports about security guards outside the UNHCR office punching and kicking ethnic Chins trying to get in without appointments.  

UNHCR responded in its written statement saying it has “zero tolerance” for this type of treatment but also said: “At this time, we have not received any reports of abuse by security personnel from any individual refugee from the Chin Community.”  

The alliance chairman dismissed the UNHCR’s response as false. “We have told them about mistreatment many times,” he said. 
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TOKYO — Shigeru Ishiba, a veteran politician with a reputation for irking his conservative colleagues, is set to become Japan’s next prime minister after winning the leadership race for the Liberal Democratic Party Friday.

Ishiba, a 67-year-old former defense minister, defeated socially conservative foreign policy hawk Sanae Takaichi in the second round of an internal party vote. The LDP’s parliamentary majority means he will become prime minister, likely next week.

The runoff between Ishiba and Takaichi followed a first-round vote featuring a record nine candidates, reflecting a broad struggle over the direction of the LDP, which has ruled Japan for all but four of the past 65 years.

The conservative LDP has sought to relax Japan’s self-imposed, post-World War II military restraints, though the Japanese public remains largely wary of abandoning its pacifist traditions.

The choice between Ishiba and Takaichi was especially significant. While neither was expected to drastically reverse Japan’s bolder security stance, they represented different visions about how it should be pursued.

Takaichi claimed to be the ideological successor to the late prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who pushed for a more assertive Japan, often to the dismay of its neighbors.

Ishiba, however, was a prominent Abe critic who “urges humility in Japan’s approach to its history,” said Tobias Harris, a Japanese politics specialist and founder of Japan Foresight, a political risk advisory company.

Ishiba’s win represents “a rejection of a quarter century of dominance by Abe and his national greatness conservatives, the triumph of a style of politics that has been pushed to the margins of the LDP for most of Ishiba’s career,” Harris wrote in a profile of Ishiba this week.

Takaichi, considered the most conservative candidate in the race, had pledged to visit the controversial Yasukuni Shrine as prime minister. The shrine honors Japan’s war dead, including convicted war criminals. The last prime minister to visit was Abe in 2013, a move that sparked criticism from China, South Korea, and the United States.

That approach was apparently viewed as too risky for many LDP members, who worried that Japan’s international standing could become tainted, according to Mieko Nakabayashi, a former Japanese lawmaker and professor at Tokyo’s Waseda University.

“In terms of international security and international relations, the choice of Takaichi was not actually on the table if you were a decent member of the LDP,” Nakabayashi said. “LDP members thought that was too much.”

However, many analysts were skeptical about the chances of Ishiba, who on four prior occasions had tried and failed to secure the LDP’s top spot. Though popular with the public, Ishiba was disliked by many of his colleagues, in large part because of his prior decision to leave the party and criticize successive LDP-led administrations, most notably Abe’s.

The result means Abe allies are now “in the backseat” of the party, said Tetsuo Kotani, a senior fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs.

The Abe faction had widely been blamed for a scandal involving the misuse of millions of dollars in unreported political donations. In an attempt to restore public trust following that scandal, the party dismantled most of the powerful factions that traditionally controlled the leadership votes.

The scandals helped topple outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, whose administration had also struggled to address Japan’s long-standing economic stagnation and rising inflation.

Ishiba was a vocal critic of “Abenomics,” which relied on low interest rates and government spending to stimulate growth. Instead, Ishiba has called for raising corporate taxes to promote greater wealth redistribution.

Ishiba also wants Japan to take a bigger role in his country’s alliance with the United States. He has repeatedly called for the revision of the Status of Forces Agreement governing U.S. forces in Japan.

He also has proposed the creation of an “Asian NATO,” which he says could facilitate a nuclear sharing arrangement or the return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the region.

While Ishiba supports the U.S.-Japan alliance, he wants to put the relationship on a more equal playing field, said Rintaro Nishimura, an associate in the Japan practice of the Asia Group.

“His fundamental principle … is making sure that Japan is able to work with regional partners in a way that it doesn’t completely rely on the United States to be engaged in a conflict with China. To be able to independently, in a sense, prepare for the worst scenario,” Nishimura said.

Ishiba may revisit some of his campaign policies that unsettled his foreign policy advisers, said Kotani, the foreign affairs specialist, who expects Ishiba to govern pragmatically.

“Ishiba is predictable,” he said. “And he will be surrounded by reasonable people.”
…

PATNA, India — Dozens of children drowned while bathing in rivers and ponds in rituals that were part of a three-day Hindu festival in eastern India’s Bihar state, officials said.

Heavy monsoon rains recently had raised the levels of waterways across the state. 

At least 46 people, including 37 children, drowned in separate incidents across the state’s 15 districts, a statement from Bihar’s disaster management department said. Authorities have recovered 43 bodies so far, and the three missing people are presumed to be dead.

During the annual festival, mothers fast for 24 hours for the well-being of their children. The women are sometimes accompanied by their children when they visit rivers and ponds for cleansing rituals. The festival concluded Thursday.

The state government has announced a compensation of 400,000 rupees ($4,784) for the families of each of the dead.

Deadly accidents like drownings and stampedes during religious festivals are common in India.

In July, at least 121 people were killed after severe overcrowding and a lack of exits contributed to a stampede at a religious festival in northern India.
…

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HONG KONG — A Hong Kong court on Thursday night sentenced a former editor to jail for 21 months and immediately released another after both had earlier been found guilty of conspiring to publish seditious articles.

In a landmark case about media freedom, Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam of the now-defunct Stand News media outlet were convicted last month — the first time journalists have been found guilty of sedition since the handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China in 1997.

Chung was sentenced to 21 months while Lam was given a sentence that allowed him to be released immediately on health grounds.

District Court Judge Kwok Wai-kin noted evidence from Lam’s lawyer on Thursday that he had serious autoimmune and advanced kidney disease and that prison could further endanger him.

Chung smiled as the judge said his colleague Lam would be released, and Lam’s wife wept.

Chung would have to serve around 10 months in jail given earlier remand custody.

Stand News, once Hong Kong’s leading online media outlet, was known for its hard-hitting reports about the city’s 2019 pro-democracy protests and later the national security crackdown.

Under the colonial-era sedition law, the maximum sentencing is two years imprisonment and a fine of HKD5,000 ($642).

Western diplomats that included representatives from the United States, the European Union, France, Britain, Canada and Ireland witnessed the sentencing.

Liz Throssell, a spokesperson for the United Nations Human Rights Office, said earlier that the office was calling on Hong Kong authorities to review the court’s decision in line with obligations under international human rights law.

Twenty-three member states of the Media Freedom Coalition, including the U.S., U.K. and Canada, have similarly signed a statement, urging “Hong Kong and China authorities to abide by their international human rights commitments and legal obligations, and to respect freedom of the press and freedom of speech in Hong Kong.”

A spokesperson for Hong Kong’s government said in a statement that the government “strongly disapproved of and rejected the fact-twisting remarks and baseless smears” by the coalition. Hong Kong and Chinese officials have said the security clampdown was needed to maintain stability after the pro-democracy protests.

Judge Kwok wrote in a verdict in August that “the political ideology of Stand News was localism” and “the line it took was to support and promote Hong Kong local autonomy.”

Hong Kong’s mostly youthful localist movement emerged in the 2010s amid political tensions with Beijing, emphasizing local identity and culture, as well as greater autonomy. Some supporters called for Hong Kong independence.

“I believe that during the offense period, the … defendants did not carry out real media work but participated in the so-called struggle at that time,” the judge said on Thursday.

In August, Chung wrote in a mitigation letter to the court that some Hong Kongers “care about the freedom and dignity of everyone in the community and are willing to pay the price of losing their own freedom.”

Lam wrote that “the only way for journalists to defend press freedom is to report.”

Stand News was raided by police in December 2021, and its assets were frozen, leading to its closure.
…

Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir — Voter turnout of just over 56% was reported Wednesday in Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed, Indian-controlled territory holding its first legislative elections in ten years.

Two hundred thirty-nine candidates ran for 26 assembly constituencies in Wednesday’s voting, part two of the three-phase elections.  More than 2.5 million adults were eligible to cast ballots.

The elections took place under tight security arrangements to ensure smooth conduct of the polls.

“The polls ended peacefully in all the six districts. However, some stray incidents like arguments et cetera occurred at a few places but there is no need for re-poll anywhere,” Pandurang Kondbarao Pole, J&K Chief Electoral Officer, told reporters in a press conference.

Jammu and Kashmir is experiencing its first elections since the government of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party revoked its limited autonomy in 2019, downgrading its status to that of a union territory. 

Some locals see the elections as a battle between the BJP and the people of Kashmir, saying the government has systematically snatched away their rights over the last decade.

“Desperate times call for desperate measures. I have boycotted elections ever since I became eligible to vote. Today I feel it’s necessary to cast a vote and send a message to New Delhi,” Ikhlaq Shah, a resident of Qamarwari, told VOA. “If we fail to act now, I believe the BJP government will impose its hazardous agenda against us.”

India, he said, is more interested in exploiting Jammu and Kashmir’s resources than caring for its people.

Shah expressed disappointment that regional political parties, particularly the National Conference and Peoples Democratic Party, are competing against each other in the elections despite sharing the common goal of throwing BJP out of J&K.

Muzamil Maqbool, a political analyst, told VOA that the parties have fragmented because their leaders are prioritizing personal interests. 

“Most of these mainstream parties were once colleagues of each other in the past. Now they have sprouted and formed their own separated parties to fight under different names and banners,” Maqbool said. 

The result, he predicted, is that none of them will win a majority in the J&K legislature.  

“It’s too early to say, but J&K may see a large coalition formed to govern after the October 2024 elections,” he said.

Shameem Ahmad Baba, a resident of old Srinagar, said voters are confused about the parties, who are accusing each other of being hidden allies of the BJP.

“There is a mass confusion among the people about who supports us and who stands with the government, as so many candidates are running this time,” Baba told VOA. “I wish the regional political parties had agreed on seat-sharing, as this would have helped keep New Delhi’s influence at bay.”

Muzaffar Shah, vice president of the Awami National Conference, or ANC, said that if all regional parties worked together under the banner of the now-dissolved Peoples Alliance for Gupkar Declaration, PAGD, it would have strengthened the movement of the local population. 

PAGD was a coalition of major parties created to press the demand that India revive J&K’s special status. 

“PAGD was recognized almost throughout diaspora of Kashmir and throughout the world,” Shah said. “Unfortunately, political parties in the alliance, they gave much more weightage to their organizational matters and power politics than the interests of people of region. That fact unfortunately led to the breakup.”

Meanwhile, a 16-member delegation of foreign diplomats from countries like the U.S., Mexico, Singapore and Norway visited Kashmir at the invitation of the Indian government.

Former Chief Minister of J&K, Omar Abdullah, lashed out at the central government for inviting foreign diplomats to observe the elections.

“If these diplomats comment on J&K the Government of India immediately says it’s an internal matter and they don’t want outside interference. If that’s the case, why are they inviting them now?” Abdullah said.

The third phase of the J&K elections takes place October 1. 
…

London — As world leaders gather for the annual United Nations General Assembly in New York this week, the charity Oxfam says they are being undermined by what it calls a “global oligarchy” of the super-rich who exert considerable control over the global economy – and who it blames for exacerbating problems like extreme inequality and climate change.

“Today, the world’s richest 1% own more wealth than 95% of humanity. The immense concentration of wealth, driven significantly by increased monopolistic corporate power, has allowed large corporations and the ultrarich who exercise control over them to use their vast resources to shape global rules in their favor, often at the expense of everyone else,” the Oxfam report says.

The charity says international cooperation on issues like climate change and poverty is failing due to extreme economic inequality.

“The wealth of the world’s five richest men has doubled since the start of this decade. And nearly five billion people have got poorer,” said Nabil Ahmed, the director of economic and racial justice at Oxfam America, in an interview with VOA.

Fair taxes

The report urges fairer taxation of large corporations and the ultra-wealthy.

“We live in a world in which mega-corporations… are paying next to or little to no tax basically. Not like the small businesses, not like the rest of us,” Ahmed said.

“It’s such a phenomenal lost opportunity because we know governments, rich and poor, across the world need to claw back these revenues to be able to invest in their people, to be able to meet their rights,” he added.

Oxfam praises a campaign led by Brazil, which currently holds the presidency of the G20, to impose a 2% minimum tax on the world’s richest billionaires. Brazil’s government claims it would raise up to $250 billion from about 3,000 individuals, to pay for healthcare, education and tackling climate change.

A report by the French economist Gabriel Zucman, commissioned by Brazil, suggests billionaires currently pay the equivalent of 0.3% of their wealth in taxes.

The plan is backed by other members including South Africa, Spain and France. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke against the move at a G20 meeting in July.

“Tax policy is very difficult to coordinate globally and we don’t see a need or really think it’s desirable to try to negotiate a global agreement on that. We think that all countries should make sure that their taxation systems are fair and progressive,” Yellen told reporters.

Private debt

Oxfam says tax revenues in the global south meanwhile are increasingly spent on servicing debt to private creditors like banks and hedge funds.

“This shift has exacerbated the debt crisis, further entrenching “debtocracy.” Compared with official creditors, private entities issue debt with shorter maturities and higher, more volatile interest rates,” the Oxfam report says.

Vaccines

The charity also accuses large pharmaceutical companies of shaping rules over intellectual property rights to benefit their shareholders. Oxfam says that during the COVID-19 pandemic, this meant poorer nations struggled to access coronavirus vaccines, such as the mRNA vaccine made by Pfizer.

“Its negative impacts are most harshly felt by countries in the Global South, which bear the brunt of “artificial rationing,” where pharmaceutical corporations keep drug costs — and thus profits — high by limiting generic manufacturing, while simultaneously failing to invest in research and development for priority diseases in the Global South deemed less profitable,” Oxfam said.

Responding to VOA, Pfizer highlighted an open letter written by the company’s chairman Albert Bourla in 2021, in which he said the company had created a tiered pricing structure and had offered its mRNA coronavirus vaccine at cost price or for free to poorer nations. However, Bourla said that many richer countries moved faster to purchase the available doses.

“When we developed our tiered pricing policy, we reached out to all nations asking them to place orders so we could allocate doses for them. In reality, the high-income countries reserved most of the doses,” Bourla wrote.

Pfizer’s chairman also warned that losing intellectual property rights could “disincentivize” anyone else from taking a big financial risk in developing such vaccines, a view echoed by other large pharmaceutical giants.
…

TAIPEI, Taiwan — China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday in a rare occurrence, adding to tensions in the region where multiple countries have overlapping territorial claims and both Beijing and Washington seek to project their influence.

The launch was part of routine training by the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, which is in charge of conventional and nuclear missile operations, and was not aimed at any country or target, the Defense Ministry said in a statement.

The ICBM, carrying a dummy warhead, landed in a designated area in the sea, the ministry said, without specifying where exactly.

China rarely tests ICBMs out in international waters, with some experts tracing the last such deployment back to May 1980, when Beijing launched a DF-5 missile into the South Pacific. Usually, the PLA test-fires ballistic missiles in China’s remote Xinjiang region or in the Bohai Sea.

Why the Pacific, why now?

China choosing the Pacific Ocean as the location for test-firing its missile comes across as both a display of its increased nuclear capabilities and as a warning to the United States and its allies in the region, experts say.

“There is no other potential audience, as China does not expect to have to confront the EU or the U.K. militarily,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.

The test also comes weeks ahead of an expected call between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. It marks an increase in regional security tensions with U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines, and a continuation of frictions with the self-ruled island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its own territory.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday it was monitoring the missile launch, along with other military exercises by China in the region.

The launch, coinciding with the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, “is a pretty blunt signal” to the international order, said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore and a former U.S. defense official.

“China is signaling that its forbearance has limits, that it is prepared to use its most powerful weapons to deter adversaries or punish them if needed, if deterrence fails,” he said.

Wednesday’s launch also follows a series of corruption arrests this year that ensnared several leading officers in its rocket corps on allegations of misconduct. Its aim could be to both provide assurances at home and signal to the world that the issues have been resolved.

How strong is China’s military?

China boasts the world’s largest standing army and the biggest navy. Its military budget is the second highest in the world, after that of the U.S.

According to the U.S., China also has the largest air force in the Indo-Pacific, with more than half of its fighter planes consisting of fourth or fifth generation models. China also boasts a massive stockpile of missiles, along with stealth aircraft, bombers capable of delivering nuclear weapons, advanced surface ships and nuclear-powered submarines.

In his more than a decade in power, Xi, who is also chairman of the Central Military Commission, has spearheaded the armed forces’ modernization, with investments in high-tech military technologies from stealth fighters to aircraft carriers and a growing arsenal of nuclear weapons.

China’s defense budget has more than doubled since 2015, even as the country’s economic growth rate has slowed considerably. A U.S. Department of Defense report last year said China has continued to strengthen the PLA’s ability to “fight and win wars against a strong enemy.”

How do China’s missiles compare to those of others?

The U.S. report also estimated China had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023 and was on track to accumulate more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030.

China has not revealed the size of its nuclear arsenal.

In comparison, Russia is believed to have a total inventory of more than 5,580 warheads — including 4,380 stockpiled warheads for operational forces, as well as an additional 1,200 retired warheads awaiting dismantlement — according to a report this year by the Federation of American Scientists.

The same report put the U.S. nuclear warheads at 5,044.

How common are missile tests in the region?

Few countries have ICBMs in their arsenal, and testing is usually restricted to their own territory. North Korea has carried out multiple ICBM tests since 2017, including firing a developmental solid-fueled missile in December that came down in the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan.

The U.S. earlier this year fired two unarmed ICBMs equipped with reentry vehicles from California and brought them down on an American test site in the Marshall Islands.
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SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea announced plans Thursday to compensate famers and others in the country’s dwindling dog meat industry before a formal ban goes effect in 2027, a move that is drawing opposition from both farmers and animal rights activists.

South Korea’s parliament passed a landmark bill in January that will ban slaughtering, breeding or selling dog meat for human consumption after a three-year grace period. It will be punishable by 2-3 years in prison.

The Agriculture Ministry said that farmers would receive compensation starting from 225,000 won ($170), and rising up to 600,000 won ($450) per dog if they agree to shut down their business early.

It’s likely that farmers won’t accept the offer, as they earlier called for 2 million won ($1,505) per dog. They’ve said the ban infringes on their freedom and will aggravate their economic difficulties. In a statement Tuesday, an association of dog farmers called for the law to be amended to extend the grace period and add appropriate compensation plans.

Sangkyung Lee, a campaign manager at the Korean office of the anti-animal cruelty group Humane Society International, called the South Korean announcement “an important milestone in this historic ban that will see the ban through to completion and end our country’s dog meat era for good.”

But Lee said his office is “disappointed” at the South Korean plan because it would pay farmers based on the number of dogs they have, “potentially increasing dog breeding to get more money from the scheme and more puppies being born into suffering.”

Dog meat consumption is a centuries-old practice on the Korean Peninsula. Dog meat is eaten in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and some African countries. But South Korea’s dog meat industry has drawn more attention because of the country’s reputation as a cultural and economic powerhouse. It’s also the only nation with industrial-scale dog farms.

South Korea’s anti-dog meat campaign received a big boost from the country’s first lady, Kim Keon Hee, who repeatedly expressed her support for a prohibition. She was subjected to withering criticism and crude insults during demonstrations by farmers.

Surveys have found that that around one in three South Koreans opposes the ban, though most people now don’t eat dog meat and favor a ban.

Vice Agriculture Minster Park Beomsu told reporters that government studies found that about 466,000 dogs are currently being raised for food across South Korea. He said officials will try to convince farmers to voluntarily phase out dog breeding ahead of the ban.

After the ban comes into force, Park said, the government plans to facilitate adoptions for the remaining dogs or move them to care facilities rather than euthanize them.

The agriculture ministry said butchers will also be compensated, while local authorities will be responsible for dismantling dog farms and slaughterhouses. Former farmers and butchers will also get low-interest loans if they pivot to other agricultural businesses.

The ministry said authorities will also offer financial assistance to traders and restaurant owners to shut down their businesses and find new jobs.
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CHIANG RAI, Thailand — The severe and prolonged flooding that has deluged Thailand is devastating hundreds of thousands of residents and prompting calls for long-term solutions, including measures to mitigate the long-term impact of climate change.

Thailand suffers from an annual monsoon season from July to October. Although floods are common nationwide, authorities say this year has been the worst in decades.

Thanapon Piman, senior research fellow, SEI Asia Center, says climate change has contributed to the flooding.

“Climate change and La Niña … cause heavy rainfall over the region more than normal condition. For example, the monthly rainfall in Chiang Rai in August is higher [than] normal [by] 40% to 50%. Mae Sai has faced flooding six times in a month, which never happened before,” he told VOA.

The La Niña phenomenon is the natural cooling of the water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It occurs every few years and affects weather worldwide.

Thanapon said authorities knew La Niña would make this season wetter than normal, but not that it would be so extreme. “This is certainly caused by climate changes.”

The floods were exacerbated by Typhoon Yagi, which rampaged through Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries in mid-September. Upwards of 150,000 families have been affected by the floods in Thailand, with 46 killed, according to Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department.

“It triggered severe flash floods and mudslides over the north region. As the result of heavy rainfall since August, land turned into saturated soil. Thus, when the heavy rainfall from the Yagi Typhoon hit the region, it caused the extreme flooding,” Thanapon said.

“Flooding and extreme events happen [not] only [in] Thailand but also happen in Vietnam, the Philippines, Laos and Myanmar.”

In Chiang Mai, the second largest city in Thailand, floods have intensified in recent days. Direct daily train service between Bangkok and Chiang Mai was temporarily affected by a landslide, while roads were flooded.

In Chiang Rai itself, the flooding has been a problem for weeks, with at least 1,268 families affected. Residents told VOA that the floods were waist-deep and even though they have subsided, foot-deep water remains in the streets while buildings are clogged with sludgy mud.

Chalermpon “Por” Thungkham owns a congee restaurant in Chiang Rai with his mother and father. He says the floods have ruined his home and business.

“The stuff for the food to prepare got damaged, the electricity got cut, everything is ruined inside. It was like this for three days until it got back to ‘normal,’ but then there was the mud. We wanted to clean the mud, but we didn’t have the water supply,” he told VOA.

He said his breakfast shop usually brings in around $30 per day, but the damage to his facilities is equal to a year’s worth of income. His family has been relying on aid trucks to bring everyday supplies.

“The flooding has caused more than maybe 300,000 THB ($9,168) of damage. The car, the furniture we need to fix. It will take one month to clean and re-open the restaurant,” he added. 

Fifty miles north in Mae Sai, on the border with Myanmar, relatives of the city’s residents have come from around the country to help repair and clean up ruined homes. One of those is Sky, a hairdresser who works in Bangkok.

“I came back to Chiang Rai because I was worried about my mother and child who were trapped in our house for three days during the flooding,” she told VOA. “We still have mud on both sides of the house, and there is still mud in the kitchen and bathroom that needs to be cleaned. We have to wait for clean water.”

The Wat Tham Pha Chom Buddhist Temple has become a makeshift shelter for hundreds of residents in Mae Sai. Situated on a hill, the religious sanctuary has been largely unaffected by the floods.

“After the big flooding, the people came to stay here,” said Phra Manatcha Pothisam, a monk and acting director of Wat Tham Pha Chom, who spoke to VOA amid stacked water containers and piles of second-hand clothes for those in need. 

“There was around 300 people, men and women are separated, but we provide food for meals, drinking water, and some clothes. This is from donations and government subsidies. Right now there are 150 people live here,” he said.

“Many of the villagers were very scared. This temple is the place for meditation [and] has been supported by the people, so we need to give back.”

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who became Thailand’s 31st prime minister in August, has said the government’s top priority is addressing the flooding, and called for the mud to be cleared in Chiang Rai promptly.

Economically, the floods could cause Thailand up to $176 million in damages, Thailand’s Chamber of Commerce has estimated.

But Arisara Lekkham, a lecturer at the School of Law at the Mae Fah Luang University in Chiang Rai insists Thailand needs a long-term plan to combat the flooding.

“Flood management should become a regular, year-round effort rather than a reactive, seasonal approach,” she told VOA.

“Many houses are damaged, and it will take months before people can return to their homes. It is proposed that the government implement additional relief measures for the affected people. The lessons learned from the Chiang Rai floods should be applied to other areas currently facing flood problems, especially regarding early warning systems,” she added.
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HONG KONG — A Hong Kong court is due to sentence two former editors on Thursday who have been found guilty of sedition after publishing articles about the national security crackdown in the city under China — a ruling that has prompted an international outcry.

In a landmark case about media freedom, Chung Pui-kuen and Patrick Lam of the now-defunct Stand News media outlet were convicted last month — the first time that journalists have been found guilty of sedition since the handover of Hong Kong from Britain to China in 1997.

Chung, 55, and Lam, 36, had pleaded not guilty. Stand News, once Hong Kong’s leading online media outlet, was known for its hard-hitting reports about the city’s 2019 pro-democracy protests and later the national security crackdown.

Under Hong Kong law, they could be jailed for up to two years.

Liz Throssell, a spokesperson for the U.N. Human Rights Office, said the office was calling on Hong Kong authorities to review the court’s decision in line with obligations under international human rights law.

Twenty-three member states of the Media Freedom Coalition, including the U.S., U.K. and Canada, have similarly signed a statement, urging “Hong Kong and China authorities to abide by their international human rights commitments and legal obligations, and to respect freedom of the press and freedom of speech in Hong Kong.”

A spokesperson for Hong Kong’s government said in a statement that the government “strongly disapproved of and rejected the fact-twisting remarks and baseless smears” by the coalition. Hong Kong and Chinese officials have said the security clampdown —which has included tighter laws — has been needed to maintain stability after the pro-democracy protests.

During the 57-day trial, the prosecution argued that Stand News had acted as a political platform to promote “illegal” ideologies and incited readers’ hatred against the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.

Chung wrote in a letter to the court that some Hong Kongers “care about the freedom and dignity of everyone in the community and are willing to pay the price of losing their own freedom.”

“Recording and reporting their stories and thoughts truthfully is an unavoidable responsibility for journalists,” Chung wrote.

Lam wrote that “the only way for journalists to defend press freedom is to report.”

Stand News was raided by police in December 2021 and its assets were frozen, leading to its closure.
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islamabad — Pakistan reported Wednesday that the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, had approved a crucial $7 billion loan for the cash-strapped nation struggling to meet its external financing needs.

In a statement issued by his office, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif “expressed satisfaction” and hailed the IMF’s approval of the much-needed loan. He also thanked Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF chief, and his own economic team for successfully negotiating the agreement, the statement said.

The Washington-based global lender was expected to release a separate statement.

Pakistani media reports said the IMF had agreed to the 37-month loan agreement for the South Asian nation under the Extended Fund Facility and authorized the immediate release of the first tranche of nearly $1.1 billion.

Sharif, who is in New York for the U.N. General Assembly session, told Pakistani media representatives before Wednesday’s approval that his government had met all of the lender’s conditions.

He stated that the lender had “set stringent conditions” for the loan program preliminarily agreed to in July. The prime minister credited Pakistan’s longtime allies, China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with helping Islamabad finalize the IMF deal, but he did not elaborate.

Pakistan was required to seek an extension on existing $5 billion, $4 billion and $3 billion cash loan agreements from Riyadh, Beijing and Abu Dhabi to fulfill a critical IMF condition.

Islamabad reportedly has committed not to repay more than $12 billion in debt to three allied nations and Kuwait during the 37-month IMF program period.

The new $7 billion loan is Pakistan’s 25th IMF program since it gained  independence in 1947 — the highest number acquired by any country.

“We are committed to ensuring this is the last time we seek such financial support from the IMF,” Sharif reiterated while speaking to Pakistani media in New York. However, critics remain skeptical about his assertions.

Experts blame chronic economic mismanagement, corruption, repeated dictatorial military regimes, and the failure of successive elected governments to introduce much-needed reforms for the financial troubles facing Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country of more than 240 million people.

Islamabad has managed its external funding needs in the past with loans, economic support from its long-standing allies and IMF financial assistance.

Historic inflation

Experts describe Pakistan’s latest economic crisis as the most prolonged. Inflation reached historic levels, pushing the country to the brink of default on its external payments before an IMF bailout helped avert the crisis last summer.

Inflation has since eased, and credit ratings agency Moody’s has upgraded Pakistan’s local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings, citing improved macroeconomic conditions and moderately better government liquidity and external positions.

The Sharif administration also has ramped up efforts to increase its tax intake in line with the IMF requirements, despite protests by traders and opposition parties over the new tax scheme and high energy rates.

The Asian Development Bank, or ADB, said in a Wednesday report that Pakistan’s economic outlook hinges on continued and effective economic reform. It expected the IMF loan program to enhance the country’s macroeconomic stability, consolidate public finances, expand social spending and protection, and rebuild foreign exchange, among other things.

“The new government has committed to the necessary stabilization and structural reforms but faces challenges owing to elevated political and institutional tensions and the prospects of social unrest from a steep drop in real incomes,” the ADB warned.

Pakistan’s economic troubles have deepened because of the political turmoil that hit the country in April 2022 when then-Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from office through a controversial opposition-led parliamentary vote of no confidence.

Khan, who has been imprisoned for more than a year on contentious charges, is the most popular politician in Pakistan. His Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Party has been organizing anti-government protests.

The party alleges that election authorities rigged the February 8 parliamentary polls to hinder Khan-backed candidates from winning and helped military-backed parties’ allies to form a coalition government, charges Sharif and army officials deny.

Some information for this report came from Reuters.
…

…

HELSINKI — A zoo in Finland has agreed with Chinese authorities to return two loaned giant pandas to China more than eight years ahead of schedule because they have become too expensive for the facility to maintain as the number of visitors has declined.

The private Ahtari Zoo in central Finland some 330 kilometers north of Helsinki said Wednesday on its Facebook page that the female panda Lumi, Finnish for “snow,” and the male panda Pyry, meaning “snowfall,” will return “prematurely” to China later this year.

The panda pair was China’s gift to mark the Nordic nation’s 100 years of independence in 2017, and they were supposed to be on loan until 2033.

But since then, the zoo has experienced several challenges, including a decline in visitors due to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine, as well as an increase in inflation and interest rates, the facility said in a statement.

The panda deal between Helsinki and Beijing, a 15-year loan agreement, had been finalized in April 2017 when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Finland for talks with then-Finnish President Sauli Niinisto. The pandas arrived in Finland in January 2018.

The Ahtari Zoo, which specializes in typical northern European animals such as bears, lynxes and wolverines, built a special annex at a cost of about $9 million in hopes of luring more tourists to the remote nature reserve.

The upkeep of Lumi and Pyry, including a preservation fee to China, cost the zoo $1.7 million annually. The bamboo that giant pandas eat was flown in from the Netherlands.

The Chinese Embassy in Helsinki noted to Finnish media that Beijing had tried to help Ahtari solve its financial difficulties by urging Chinese companies operating in Finland to make donations to the zoo and supporting its debt arrangements.

However, declining visitor numbers combined with drastic changes in the economic environment proved too high a burden for the smallish Finnish zoo. The panda pair will enter a monthlong quarantine in late October before being shipped back to China.

Finland, a country of 5.6 million people, was among the first Western nations to establish political ties with China, doing so in 1950. China has presented giant pandas to countries as a sign of goodwill and closer political ties, and Finland was the first Nordic nation to receive them.
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ISLAMABAD — Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban confirmed Wednesday that they have formally sought to join the upcoming Russia-hosted summit of the BRICS intergovernmental group of major emerging economies.

The leaders of the 10 members of BRICS, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are set to convene October 22-24 in the southwestern Russian city of Kazan for the meeting. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined the bloc this year.

“BRICS is an important economic forum, and as a developing economy, Afghanistan needs to join such economic gatherings,” Hamdullah Fitrat, the deputy Taliban spokesperson, stated in a video message aired by their official broadcaster.

“The Islamic Emirate is seeking a presence at the upcoming BRICS forum, and the request has been formally communicated to the host nation,” Fitrat stated, using the official title of their government in Kabul, which is officially not recognized by any country. He shared no further details.

There has been no immediate Russian response to the Taliban’s assertion.

Moscow has developed close informal ties with the de facto Afghan leaders since they retook control of the conflict-ravaged nation three years ago, when the United States-led Western countries withdrew their troops after almost two decades of war with the then-insurgent Taliban.

However, Russia has not recognized the Taliban as a legitimate government in alignment with the global consensus on the issue of recognition. Taliban delegations have repeatedly visited Moscow in recent months for bilateral economic and trade discussions.

The Russian foreign and justice ministries submitted a proposal to President Vladimir Putin in June to remove the radical Afghan group from Russia’s list of designated terrorist organizations. The move prompted speculations that Moscow has come closer to officially recognizing the de facto Kabul authorities.   

The Taliban have been on Russia’s list of transnational militant groups, which includes al-Qaida, since 2003.

The de facto Afghan leaders have implemented their strict interpretation of Islamic law, known as sharia, in the impoverished South Asian nation, prohibiting Afghan girls from attending schools beyond the sixth grade, suspending female students from universities, barring women from most workplaces, and banning music.

The Taliban also have introduced stoning and public executions of women for crimes such as adultery.

The U.N. and other nations

The international community, including the United Nations, has consistently called for the urgent reversal of restrictions on women before considering granting diplomatic legitimacy to the Taliban regime.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week that the Taliban’s treatment of women can be compared to “some of the most egregious systems of oppression in recent history.”

“We will continue to amplify the voices of Afghan women and call for them to play a full role in the country’s life, both inside its borders and on the global stage,” he said.

U.N. officials maintain that last month’s enactment of a morality law by the Taliban has made it even more challenging to recognize Kabul rulers.

Taliban leaders reject criticism of their governance, saying it is aligned with local culture and sharia.

“It means that one of the major obstacles to Afghanistan’s full reintegration into the international community cannot be part of a necessary dialogue,” Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, told a Security Council meeting last week.

China and the Taliban

China has also ramped up its political and economic ties with Kabul and is one of two countries, along with the United Arab Emirates, that have formally accepted a Taliban-appointed ambassador.

On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a news conference that Beijing expects the Taliban to “look at the legitimate concerns” of the global community.

“That said, women’s rights and interests are not the entirety of the Afghan issue, nor the core or root cause of the issue,” Lin said. He referenced the U.N. estimates stating that almost 24 million people in Afghanistan need humanitarian assistance, with more than half of them battling severe food insecurity.

“The international community needs to focus on the most pressing difficulties Afghanistan faces, promote the rebuilding and development in Afghanistan … and at the same time encourage, in the spirit of equality and respect, the governing authorities of Afghanistan to improve and strengthen protection of women and children’s rights,” Lin stated.

Chinese companies have signed several agreements with the Taliban to enhance economic and trade cooperation, focusing mainly on the Afghan mining sector.

Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi told a news conference in Kabul last week that his government controlled about 40 Afghan embassies and consulates worldwide, and that its diplomatic relations with the international community were improving. He stated that the Taliban are keen to develop “friendly” ties with Western nations.

The U.S. and the West at large insist that formal recognition of the Taliban depends on their actions regarding women’s rights, education for girls and women and freedom of movement.
…

BANGKOK — Thailand’s exports rose for a second straight month in August, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday as it maintained its forecast of 1% to 2% growth this year despite the baht strengthening to 30-month highs against the U.S. dollar.

With demand picking up in key markets, further export growth was expected this year and it could even come in above forecast, although the baht’s rise would impact Q4 shipments, said Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Exports, a key driver of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, rose 7% in August from a year earlier, and followed July’s 15.2% rise, which was the fastest growth in 28 months. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a rise of 5.8%

Imports rose 8.9% in August from a year earlier, compared with a forecast rise of 7.30% in the poll.

That led to a trade surplus of $0.26 billion in August, compared with a forecast deficit of $0.07 billion.

In the first 8 months of 2024, exports rose 4.2% from a year earlier, while imports rose 5.2%, with the cumulative trade deficit at $6.35 billion.

The baht has risen 4.6% since the beginning of the year, with large gains seen in the past month, to be the region’s second-strongest performing currency after Malaysia’s ringgit.

“The stronger baht is impacting liquidity and profits, especially for agricultural goods,” said Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council.

“Some business could take a loss when negotiating new orders or not get orders,” he said.

The Finance Ministry and central bank are due to meet next week to discuss currency appreciation and inflation target.

The Bank of Thailand said it was closely monitoring the currency and was ready to reduce volatility.

For August, shipments to the United States rose 3% from a year earlier, while exports to China was up 6.7% but those to Japan were down 11.3%.

Last month, rice exports rose 39.5% from a year earlier to 885,387 metric tons, and were up 46.6% in value terms to $562 million.
…

New Delhi — Catapulted to power on an anti-corruption platform, Sri Lanka’s new Marxist-leaning president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, faces an uphill task in meeting his commitments to clean up the country’s political culture and improving lives for millions mired in poverty since the country’s economic collapse two years ago, say analysts.

With his party having only three lawmakers in the 225-member parliament, Dissanayake has called for fresh elections a year ahead of schedule to choose a new house that could give him wider support for the sweeping reforms that he has promised.

“Dissanayake’s hope would be to secure a comfortable majority in parliament,” according to Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political analyst in the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo, told VOA. “In the past, it was customary for mainstream parties to bribe opposition lawmakers to join them, but his main plank is clean governance, so he will need to win the numbers.”

In a country that rejected mainstream parties in the presidential polls, there is what Uyangoda calls a “very good chance” that he will be able to substantially improve his party’s parliamentary tally. Elections will be held on Nov. 14.

Currently, Dissanayake has the smallest cabinet in the country’s history as he lacks the numbers for a full-fledged cabinet. He has named a new prime minister, Harini Amarasuriya, and two ministers — in Sri Lanka, only lawmakers can be appointed as ministers.

Winning wider support will be crucial. “Otherwise attempts to deliver on his election promises can be blocked by knee-jerk opposition, due to differences in ideology or political opportunism,” Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told VOA.

Meeting expectations of relief from the punishing austerity measures imposed by a $ 2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund is the first big test Dissanayake faces. He will handle the key finance portfolio.

His pledge to renegotiate Sri Lanka’s deal with the IMF – which he says is not favorable to working class citizens — will not be easy at a time when the country is still heavily debt-ridden and has limited room to expand welfare measures. The package has helped steer the economy back to a nascent growth path, but the government will need to stick to the program’s criteria of keeping the budget deficit in check.

An IMF spokesman in Washington said on Monday that it looked forward to working with President Dissanayake “towards building on the hard-won gains that have helped put Sri Lanka on a path to economic recovery.”

While options for providing relief may be limited, analysts said Dissanayake is expected to reduce income taxes for lower income groups and lower taxes on food and medicine.

There is also concern among the business community about the position the Marxist leader, the son of a laborer, will take on free market policies.

The policies of his Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, are aligned with protectionism, according to Gamage. “Their party’s economic growth policy is woven around prioritizing industrialization and domestic manufacturing, supporting local businesses and agriculture.”

However, Dissanayake now heads a coalition, the National People’s Power, an umbrella group of small political parties, youth, civil society and women’s groups and trade unions.

In recent years he has also moderated his party’s hard-left stance and said he believes in an open economy.

“The business class is uneasy because of the Marxist tradition to which he belongs. But my sense is that Dissanayake is a very pragmatic and rational man,” Jehan Perera, who heads the National Peace Council in Colombo, told VOA. “And the coalition the president heads is not a Marxist group.”

Delivering on the clean governance he has promised could also face a pushback.

“Corruption is very deep-seated in the system. It is endemic in society and goes from top to bottom, so rooting it out is very tough,” said Perera. “He will face strong vested interests to rebuild a system that has broken down. But on the positive side, he has the support of the people.”

After taking the oath of office, Dissanayake sounded a note of caution amid the widespread optimism raised by his victory among millions of Sri Lankans, saying he is not a “magician” but an “ordinary citizen.”

“There are things I know and don’t know. My aim is to gather those with the knowledge and skills to help lift this country,” he said on Monday.

The coming months will be crucial for a country that is navigating a vastly altered political landscape.

“The management of the economic crisis and management of public expectations will be his biggest challenge, otherwise discontent will grow again,” said analyst Uyangoda. “Past leaders have all belonged to the political elite. This is the first time there is a president who belongs to the working class, so the hopes of the ordinary people are very, very high.”
…

MANILA, Philippines — Developing Asia is on track to grow 5% this year, supported by strong consumption and high demand for tech exports, the Asian Development Bank forecast on Wednesday, and said China was expected to roll out more economic support measures.

In an update to its Asian Development Outlook report, the ADB left most growth projections for economies in the region unchanged from its July report, maintaining its growth outlook for developing Asia at 5.0% this year and 4.9% next year.

It revised down its inflation forecasts for developing Asia, which groups 46 countries in the Asia-Pacific, to 2.8% for this year and 2.9% for next year from previous forecasts of 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively.

The Manila-based lender highlighted some downside risks to its outlook, including rising protectionism, escalating geopolitical tensions, adverse weather conditions, and a deterioration in China’s property market.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is battling deflationary pressures, and struggling to lift growth despite a series of policy measures aimed at spurring domestic spending.

On Tuesday, China’s central bank announced broad monetary stimulus and property market support measures as authorities look to restore confidence in the economy.

“Whether that will work remains to be seen because a lot of the structural problems in the property sector remain persistent,” ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said at a briefing.

“It may take more effort and work by their government” to alleviate concerns of consumers and investors, Park said, adding “more proactive government policy would be helpful.”

Park also said the ADB was not so concerned about deflation in China as it sees prices recovering.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve kicked off its own easing cycle with a hefty half-percentage-point rate cut.

“With the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut, central banks have more space to ease, and we expect more of them to do so,” Park said.

The ADB kept its 2024 growth forecast for China at 4.8%, below the government’s official target of about 5%. Growth for 2025 is still forecast at 4.5%.

“The PRC (People’s Republic of China) growth forecast is retained despite the prolonged downturn in the property sector, on the assumption that further fiscal and monetary easing will help sustain the economy,” Park said.
…

CIREBON, Indonesia — A G7-backed push to close coal power plants in emerging markets is facing further delays after a July deadline passed without a deal on the early closure of an Indonesian power plant that would be the first to shut under the initiative.

The push against coal comes under the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with Indonesia, Senegal, South Africa and Vietnam that call for billions of dollars in investments, grants and loans from G7 members, multilateral banks and private lenders to help them transition to low-carbon economies.

Cutting emissions from coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, is seen as a crucial element of the JETPs if the world is to stave off the worst impacts of climate change.

But a deal on the early shutdown of coal power plants in South Africa remains elusive amid its struggles with rolling blackouts, and hope for proof of concept has turned to Indonesia’s 660 megawatt Cirebon-1 plant in West Java province, 220 km east of capital Jakarta.

The legal and financial implications of closing Cirebon-1 are a stumbling block though. Jakarta is worried, too, that costs for replacing it with renewable energy could reach $1.3 billion, mostly in subsidies to cover more expensive renewable power generation, according to the finance ministry.

A new government is taking office in October as well and that could further dent the chance of a deal on Cirebon, said Fabby Tumiwa, a renewables expert and member of the technical team advising Indonesia on its JETP.

“If this is not signed before Oct. 20, I am worried that this matter will be overlooked,” Fabby said, citing calls by President-elect Prabowo Subianto for self-sufficiency and energy security that suggest a commitment to coal, which generates two-thirds of Indonesia’s electricity.

Prabowo, who takes office on that date, has not commented on Cirebon and has rarely discussed his energy policy, though the retirement of coal power is mentioned in his campaign pledges.

Prabowo’s team has not responded to requests for comment.

Under Indonesia’s JETP, richer nations have pledged $20 billion to help the Southeast Asian nation with its energy transition, although little of that money has been disbursed.

Legal concerns

Earlier this month, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the outgoing government was trying to close the Cirebon deal as soon as possible, without giving details.

David Elzinga, team leader for the Asian Development Bank’s regional Energy Transition Mechanism program that is working on the early shutdown scheme, said his group was seeking a binding deal on Cirebon acceptable to both the outgoing and incoming administrations.

“Indonesia has positioned itself to be a leader … It’s really important now that we get the deal done,” Elzinga said.

A deal on Cirebon is crucial for the ADB’s regional ETM program as it plans similar deals in countries including Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as for other plants in Indonesia.

To get there, state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and plant operator PT Cirebon Electric Power (CEP) need to reach a new power purchase agreement, which they failed to do by July, CEP Director Joseph Pangalila told Reuters.

The need for stronger legal protections and a clear road map for retiring coal plants was the main problem, PLN said, given that power generation costs could rise by nearly 90%.

PLN directors also fear a deal could expose them to future criminal charges if anti-graft investigators see the transaction as burdening the state with losses, JETP advisor Fabby said.

Rachmat Kaimuddin, deputy minister overseeing power infrastructure, acknowledged this at a recent forum, saying stakeholders were considering the legal repercussions that might arise from any closures.

“If we’re not careful, some people can get into trouble because it can create what they call state loss,” he said.

In June, a former chief executive of state energy firm Pertamina was sentenced to nine years in jail for signing a long-term gas contract that a corruption court said caused state losses of $114 million.

Others to follow

“We are anxious that it needs to get done, but at the same time what is important is that the first transaction be done in the best possible manner,” said Ramesh Subramaniam, ADB director general and head of the bank’s sectors group.

A number of private banks are lined up to invest and a series of new deals also could be started once Cirebon is done, with the ADB having already looked at about 30 other plants in Indonesia, he said.

“Although this has taken time, we have learnt a lot … and our very clear feeling is the next ones to come will be considerably easier.”

Cirebon-1 is a fairly new plant that started up in 2012. A deal would mean it stops operations in 2035 instead of 2042.

Despite running cleaner than older plants, emissions from Cirebon and others around Jakarta are often blamed for Indonesia’s chronic pollution, and some of the locals in neighboring fishing villages would be happy to see it go.

Fisherman Amin, 64, blamed the plant and coal unloading at its jetty for pollution and a scarcity of fish in nearby waters.

“When they first opened, the water was fine, but it became increasingly murky. The green mussel farms here didn’t have any harvest in the past two years,” he said.

“From the beginning of construction, I was against it.”
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Taipei, Taiwan — A report released on Wednesday finds that Hong Kong’s national security law, enacted in July 2020, has eroded academic freedom in the former British colony.

The report, co-authored by Human Rights Watch, and the Washington-based advocacy organization Hong Kong Democracy Council, said university authorities have imposed greater control and limitations on student activities and that students and faculty members are increasingly exercising self-censorship to avoid getting into trouble.

“Students, academics, and administrators, especially those from Hong Kong studying contemporary socio-political issues, feel as if they are living under a microscope,” the report says.

Some analysts say the opaque definition of what constitutes a violation of the security law has created a chilling effect among students and faculty members at Hong Kong universities.

“When the red line isn’t clear, there will be a pervasive sense of fear, and students and faculty members will try to make adjustments to ensure they don’t get into trouble,” Maya Wang, the associate China director at Human Rights Watch, told VOA by phone.

The report said Hong Kong’s eight public universities have been managed by people who hold views favored by Beijing following the imposition of the law in 2020. Since then, university officials have increased crackdowns on student unions and banned symbols or events viewed as promoting pro-democracy values.

“University officials have punished students for holding peaceful protests and gatherings, and have broadly censored student publications, communications, and events,” the report reads.

Wang at Human Rights Watch said since many college students and academics were involved in 2019 protests over an extradition bill, one of the Chinese government’s priorities following the implementation of the law is to “impose ideological control” over universities.

“The decline of academic freedom in Hong Kong’s universities is part of Beijing’s attempt to impose ideological control over the entire city,” she told VOA.

Exercising self-censorship

Most of the 33 students and academics interviewed for the report said self-censorship is a common practice at universities in Hong Kong, especially on socio-political topics related to China and Hong Kong.

“They do this when expressing themselves in classrooms, when writing and researching academic articles, and when inviting speakers for academic conferences,” the report says, adding that academics teaching Hong Kong and China current affairs feel “especially vulnerable.”

In some cases, university officials have asked academics in the social science field to stop offering courses on topics that Beijing considers sensitive. Others face censorship imposed by university administrators or academic publishers.

Some academics said the prevalence of self-censorship at universities in Hong Kong will reduce international understanding of the dynamics in China.

“Hong Kong was always an important space that gives the international community some insight into what’s happening in Hong Kong and the broader China, but that space is now rapidly disappearing,” Lokman Tsui, a research fellow at the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab and a former journalism professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told VOA by phone.

The law’s negative impact on academic freedom in Hong Kong seems to differ between academics in different fields. “Some said [the NSL] affected everything they do; others said it has very little impact,” the report says.

Since university management is stacked with supporters of the Chinese government’s position, the report says university administrators have worked with Chinese and Hong Kong authorities to harass, intimidate or even remove academics voicing different opinions.

“The government does that by defaming and intimidating those academics perceived to hold liberal or pro-democracy views in the state-owned media and denying or not issuing visas to foreign academics expressing such opinions,” the report says, adding that universities would then fire, let go or deny tenure to these academics.

Human Rights Watch and Hong Kong Democracy Council said the Chinese government’s efforts to “cleanse” universities in Hong Kong have led to a “harmonization” of opinion in academia in Hong Kong. They also help amplify Chinese and Hong Kong authorities’ claim that pro-democracy voices are now “in the minority.”

“The Chinese government’s overall intention has been to ‘cleanse’ the universities [and] the result is a sanitized version of higher education compliant with the Party’s views, which so far continues to deliver a high-caliber education,” the report says.
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Washington — China, which has long influenced Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, is pressuring the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA — part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) — to avoid aligning with other opposition forces that China perceives as Western-backed, experts say.

The MNDAA, also known as the Kokang ethnic armed group, whose members are Mandarin-speaking Han Chinese native to Kokang, reposted a statement on social media confirming their alliance with China.

“Our political red line is not to form alliances or work together with those who are against China,” read the statement, which was briefly posted Sept. 4 and reposted on Sept. 19.

Analysts say that Beijing’s pressure on ethnic armed groups, especially the MNDAA, reflects its strategic interests in maintaining control over Myanmar’s political landscape. Strategically located along Myanmar’s northeastern border with China, the MNDAA is being pushed to sever ties with opposition forces that Beijing views as having U.S. support.

China used its economic and political leverage when it reportedly cut off trade and supplies to Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang region, to create distance between the MNDAA and the National Unity Government (NUG) — the pro-democracy shadow government leading the fight against the ruling junta.

“The MNDAA’s statement is a follow-up to China’s warning that the ‘three bottom lines’ must not be crossed,” said Than Soe Naing, a veteran political analyst based in Myanmar.

The “three bottom lines,” articulated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in August, call for Myanmar to avoid civil strife, remain part of ASEAN, and prevent external interference. 

According to a political analyst based in Yangon who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, there is a perception in China that the National Unity Government and certain resistance forces, as well as some ethnic armed organizations, are close to the United States and are receiving U.S. support.

“This policy reflects China’s emphasis on preventing external forces from interfering in Burma’s affairs, which Beijing views as critical to its regional strategy,” said political analyst Than Soe Naing, using an alternative name for Myanmar.

So far, Beijing has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement, despite the group’s request for China’s help to resolve the conflict and its willingness to cease fighting and cooperate with Beijing to negotiate a solution to Myanmar’s crisis. Myanmar also has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military continues airstrikes in northern Shan State. According to a Sept. 24 MNDAA social media post,a recent strike killed one civilian and injured 16 in Lashio, former headquarters of the junta’s Northeastern Command. 

Beijing’s interests in Myanmar

Frequent visits by Chinese officials to Myanmar have reinforced perceptions that Beijing is siding with Myanmar’s military because it perceives the opposition groups to be in alignment with the United States, observers say.

“China sees the NUG and the People’s Defense Forces as Western-backed entities, and for China, that is a red line,” said Thomas Kean, senior consultant for Myanmar at the International Crisis Group.

According to Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based expert on China-Myanmar relations, Myanmar offers China a valuable connection to the Indian Ocean, providing an essential trade route that would allow Beijing to compete more effectively in the region with the United States.

“If Myanmar is stable, China’s southwestern land-locked provinces will have a safe and secure outlet to the sea,” Hla Kyaw Zaw explained. “Beijing wants these initiatives to move forward quickly.”

China is the largest investor in Myanmar, and the internal conflict is “not conducive to foreign investment and trade,” according to a Stimson Center report.

That said, Kean told VOA that despite MNDAA’s public stance on China, the group may still maintain limited cooperation with resistance forces to secure its territorial interests.

Nan Lwin, head of the Myanmar China studies program at the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, said, “If China is to be credible for the Myanmar peace process, it will need to have a multi-country approach.”

Balancing act for opposition

Earlier this year, the National Unity Government, or NUG, issued its first formal policy statement on Beijing, pledging to safeguard Chinese investments and enterprise as resistance forces continue to gain ground in areas near the Chinese border. 

However, the Yangon-based analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity said this policy is insufficient to win over China, which seeks complete control in the region and wants to prevent any outside influence, particularly from the United States, near its strategic access point to the Indian Ocean.

“The more the conflict escalates on its border, the greater the risk of disagreements between China and the U.S. on Myanmar,” Kean said.

 
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A man from India-administered Kashmir says he was deceived into working for the Russian military and recounts the ordeal he went through with several others from his homeland. Muheet Ul Islam has more for VOA from Srinagar in India-administered Kashmir. Videographer: Wasim Nabi
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