JOHANNESBURG — Whoever wins Mozambique’s presidential election on Wednesday will face an economy battered by worsening cyclones, insecurity, delays to planned gas projects and high levels of debt.

Ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo is the frontrunner, though there are three other candidates vying to replace Felipe Nyusi as president of the southeast African nation.

Rising borrowing costs are putting pressure on Mozambique to embrace fiscal discipline, particularly as delayed gas revenues mean it is running out of options to refinance its debt – which is nearly as big as its annual GDP.

“Debt in the country is rocketing,” Gabriel Muthisse, a former transport and communications minister, told Reuters. “Debt servicing is (diverting)…resources that could be used to finance the real economy.”

The yield on Mozambique’s international bond due 2031 stands at close to 13%.

The country of 34 million people is still trying to shake off a decade-old “tuna bonds” scandal involving Credit Suisse, in which loans for a fishing fleet went missing, leading Mozambique to default on its debt and the International Monetary Fund to suspend lending.

Last year, the Swiss bank settled out of court.

“Financing options for the deficit are limited,” said Kevin Daly, portfolio manager at Abrdn, which holds Mozambique’s 2031 international bond.

Mozambique struck a $456 million deal with the IMF in May 2022, but its program expires next year and will have to be renegotiated.

“The future of the economy is really based on the development of these oil and gas…(fields),” said Thys Louw, portfolio manager at global asset manager, Ninety One. Yet Islamist violence has delayed TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil’s development of some of Africa’s biggest gas fields.

Total says it is still committed to them, but investor enthusiasm is waning.

“There was a time where everyone was excited and waiting to go into Mozambique,” said Tshepo Ncube, head of International Coverage at Absa Corporate and Investment Bank.

“Now it is all about: ‘let’s see how it plays out’.”
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TUNIS, Tunisia — President Kais Saied won a landslide victory in Tunisia’s election Monday, keeping his grip on power after a first term in which opponents were imprisoned and the country’s institutions overhauled to give him more authority.

The North African country’s Independent High Authority for Elections said Saied received 90.7% of the vote, a day after exit polls showed him with an insurmountable lead in the country known as the birthplace of the Arab Spring more than a decade ago.

“We’re going to cleanse the country of all the corrupt and schemers,” the 66-year-old populist said in a speech at campaign headquarters. He pledged to defend Tunisia against threats foreign and domestic.

That raised alarm among the president’s critics including University of Tunis law professor Sghayer Zakraoui, who said Tunisian politics were once again about “the absolute power of a single man who places himself above everyone else and believes himself to be invested with a messianic message.”

Zakraoui said the election results were reminiscent of Tunisia under President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who ruled for more than 20 years before becoming the first dictator toppled in the Arab Spring uprisings. Saied received a larger vote share than Ben Ali did in 2009, two years before fleeing the country amid protests.

The closest challenger, businessman Ayachi Zammel, won 7.4% of the vote after sitting in prison for the majority of the campaign while facing multiple sentences for election-related crimes.

Yet Saied’s win was marred by low voter turnout. Election officials reported 28.8% of voters participated on Oct. 6 — a significantly smaller showing than in the first round of the country’s two other post-Arab Spring elections and an indication of apathy plaguing the country’s 9.7 million eligible voters.

Saied’s most prominent challengers — imprisoned since last year — were prevented from running, and lesser-known candidates were jailed or kept off the ballot. Opposition parties boycotted the contest, calling it a sham amid Tunisia’s deteriorating political climate and authoritarian drift.

Over the weekend, there was little sign of an election underway in Tunisia apart from an anti-Saied protest on Friday and celebrations in the capital on Sunday evening.

“He will re-enter office undermined rather than empowered by these elections,” Tarek Megerisi, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, wrote on X.

Saied’s critics pledged to keep opposing his rule.

“It’s possible that after 20 years our kids will protest on Avenue Habib Bourguiba to tell him to get out,” said Amri Sofien, a freelance filmmaker, referring to the capital’s main thoroughfare. “There is no hope in this country.”

Such despair is a far cry from the Tunisia of 2011, when protesters took to the streets demanding “bread, freedom and dignity,” ousted the president and paved the way for the country’s transition into a multiparty democracy.

Tunisia in the following years enshrined a new constitution, created a Truth and Dignity Commission to bring justice to citizens tortured under the former regime and saw its leading civil society groups win the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering political compromise.

But its new leaders were unable to buoy the country’s flailing economy and quickly became unpopular amid constant political infighting and episodes of terrorism and political violence.

Against that backdrop, Saied — then a political outsider — won his first term in 2019 promising to combat corruption. To the satisfaction of his supporters, in 2021 he declared a state of emergency, suspended parliament and rewrote the constitution to consolidate the power of the presidency — a series of actions his critics likened to a coup.

Tunisians in a referendum approved the president’s proposed constitution a year later, although voter turnout plummeted.

Authorities subsequently began to unleash a wave of repression on the once-vibrant civil society. In 2023, some of Saied’s most prominent opponents from across the political spectrum were thrown in prison, including right-wing leader Abir Moussi and Islamist Rached Ghannouchi, the co-founder of the party Ennahda and former speaker of Tunisia’s parliament.

Dozens of others were imprisoned on charges including inciting disorder, undermining state security and violating a controversial anti-fake news law critics say has been used to stifle dissent.

The pace of the arrests picked up earlier this year, when authorities began targeting additional lawyers, journalists, activists, migrants from sub-Saharan Africa and the former head of the post-Arab Spring Truth and Dignity Commission.

“The authorities seemed to see subversion everywhere,” said Michael Ayari, senior analyst for Algeria & Tunisia at the International Crisis Group.

Dozens of candidates had expressed interest in challenging the president, and 17 submitted preliminary paperwork to run in Sunday’s race. However, members of the election commission approved only three.

The role of the commission and its members, all of them appointed by the president under his new constitution, came under scrutiny. They defied court rulings ordering them to reinstate three candidates they had rejected. The parliament subsequently passed a law stripping power from the administrative courts.

Such moves sparked international concern, including from Europe, which relies on partnership with Tunisia to police the central Mediterranean, where migrants attempt to cross in from North Africa to Europe.

European Commission Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Nabila Massrali said Monday the EU “takes note of the position expressed by many Tunisian social and political actors regarding the integrity of the electoral process.”
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Chikwawa, Malawi — In Malawi, the U.N.’s World Food Program (WFP) is working to address a rising number of malnourished children amid an ongoing drought, the worst to hit southern Africa in decades. The WFP’s efforts include providing supplementary feeding for children in health facilities and distributing emergency food items to affected households.

Malawi has faced food insecurity for the past three years because of natural disasters that also affected other parts of southern Africa.

These include Tropical Storm Ana in 2022, Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023 and the El Nino weather phenomenon this year, which has led to severe drought in the region.

Climate change is also believed to play a part.

The WFP says in Malawi, the drought has damaged 44% of crops leaving 5.7 million people without food. This is over a quarter of Malawi’s population.

Gertrude Chasafali is among those affected. She said she grows various types of crops including some vegetables but now struggles to find something to eat. Sometimes she eats one meal a day, or none at all.

Health experts say the food shortage situation has increased malnutrition cases among vulnerable groups such as pregnant and lactating women, and children under 5 years of age.

Feston Katundu is a nutrition officer in the Chikwawa district of southern Malawi, one of the hardest hit areas.

“The prevalence of underweight children is 18%, which is high compared to Malawi as a nation because Malawi is at 13%,” Katundu said. “For wasting we are also at 5%, while Malawi is [usually] at 3%, meaning that we are not doing well.”

Katundu also said 34% of children under the age of 5 in Chikwawa are suffering stunted growth.

The situation has forced the WFP to provide supplementary feeding to malnourished children.

Paul Turnbull, WFP country director in Malawi, said in recent years the country could manage the situation but now needs help.

“In the last few years, the level of moderate acute malnutrition were possible by the Ministry of Health to manage by itself,” Turnbull said. “But with [the] increase in number[s] now, we want to be able to ensure that the capacity is there in the Ministry of Health. So, we are supplying additional products and doing training so that children who have got acute moderate malnutrition won’t deteriorate further.”

Charles Kalemba, commissioner for the Department of Disaster Management Affairs in Malawi, said another reason the country faces food shortages is because of its dependence on rain-fed agriculture.

“If we can put our act together by moving away from rain-fed agriculture to irrigated agriculture we may solve this problem once and for all,” Kalemba said.

In the meantime, the WFP and Malawi’s government are delivering emergency food assistance to millions of Malawians impacted by the drought.
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Yaounde — Officials in Cameroon say fresh flooding has forced at least 70,000 people out of temporary camps that were set up for flood victims along the country’s northern border with Chad and Nigeria. Some of the displaced flood victims have now moved to neighboring Chad, where at least two million people have been rendered homeless by this year’s ceaseless floods according to Chad’s government.

Kamsouloum Abba Kabir urged flood victims in Kousseri, a town on Cameroon’s northern border with Chad, to rush to safety in surrounding schools, mosques and churches.

Kamsouloum is a lawmaker representing Kousseri civilians in Cameroon’s lower house of parliament. He told civilians in several villages that waters from the Lake Chad basin are overflowing and causing havoc to civilians, animals and the environment.

In a video, broadcast on Cameroon state TV on Monday, Kamsouloum, accompanied by Cameroon government officials, said the lives of over 70,000 civilians rendered homeless by recent floods are again threatened by fresh floods sweeping through more villages and camps.

Thirty-nine-year old farmer Nogoue Shivom is among the flood victims chased by fresh floods from a camp constructed by the government to temporarily host flood victims.

Shivom said floods woke her from her bed in the Kousseri camp for flood victims at about 10 pm on Sunday. She said she was able to save the lives of her three children, but books, food and clothes she was given by a charity organization after the first floods swept through her village were carried away by last night’s floods.

In September, Cameroon reported that floods had affected over 2 million civilians on its northern border with Chad and rendered over two hundred thousand homeless. The central African state said farm plantations were devastated and cattle, goats, fouls and sheep either killed or swept away by the floods.

Cameroon warned of a looming famine and began transferring civilians rendered homeless by floods to several camps including Kousseri.

Rebeka, who goes by only one name, is the highest government official in Kousseri.

He said by Sunday night, several thousand flood victims fled from their camp and surrounding villages and are seeking refuge in safer places. He said a greater portion of the victims who left the camp have crossed over to Chad’s capital N’djamena where they hope to find safety.

The Cameroon government reports that about 70,000 flood victims have either crossed into Chad or are seeking refuge in border villages. The government says scores of people have died in the floods but gives no further details.

The report comes when Chad’s government says it is pleading for international support after floods caused by severe rainfall since July of this year have killed at least 500 people and displaced about 2 million civilians.

Chad has not commented on the influx of Cameroon flood victims. It is not the first time Cameroonians have sought refuge in Chad. In 2021, Cameroon reported that at least a hundred thousand civilians fled its northern border to Chad after conflicts over water between cattle ranchers and fishermen killed 40 people and wounded 70.

Last month Doctors Without Borders reported that a coordinated and rapid international response is needed to save the lives of thousands of people who have fled floodwaters and are seeking refuge with desperate shortages of food, shelter, drinking water and health care.

Cameroon and Chad said last August that the lives of more than 5 million people in the two countries were threatened by a severe humanitarian crisis triggered by climate shocks. The two countries also said the floods will lead to famine and conflicts over food and drinkable water.
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KIGALI — Rwanda said Sunday it had begun administering vaccine doses against the Marburg virus to try to combat an outbreak of the Ebola-like disease in the east African country, where it has so far killed 12 people. 

“The vaccination is starting today immediately,” Health Minister Sabin Nsanzimana said at a news conference in the capital Kigali. 

He said the vaccinations would focus on those “most at risk, most exposed health care workers working in treatment centers, in the hospitals, in ICU, in emergency, but also [in] the close contacts of the confirmed cases.” 

The country has already received shipments of the vaccines including from the Sabin Vaccine Institute. 

Rwanda’s first outbreak of the viral hemorrhagic fever was detected in late September, with 46 cases and 12 deaths reported since then. Marburg has a fatality rate as high as 88%. 

Marburg symptoms include high fever, severe headaches and malaise within seven days of infection and later severe nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. 

It is transmitted to humans by fruit bats and then spreads through contact with the bodily fluids of those infected. Neighboring Uganda has suffered several outbreaks in the past. 

“We believe that with vaccines, we have a powerful tool to stop the spread of this virus,” the minister said. 
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paris — They did not exchange a glance. Congolese Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan Paul Kagame were nevertheless a few meters from each other, for the “family photo” which opened the Francophonie summit, Friday in Villers-Cotterêts north of Paris.

The heavy diplomatic and military dispute between their two countries in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), ravaged by decades of violence, remains alive, despite Paris’ hopes of seeing them come closer.

The DRC, as well as the U.N. group of experts, accuse Rwanda of having deployed troops in support of the M23 (“March 23 Movement”), a predominantly Tutsi rebellion that has seized large swathes of territory in this mineral-rich region since 2021.

The idea of a Kagame-Tshisekedi meeting fizzled out. French President Emmanuel Macron, the summit’s host, finally spoke separately with his two counterparts to “encourage” them to conclude a peace agreement “as soon as possible,” while Angola, the mediator appointed by the African Union, has been trying for months to make progress on this sensitive issue.

And the summit almost ended in a clash. At the closing Saturday, Macron called for the “withdrawal of the M23 and Rwandan troops” from Congolese soil, as Kinshasa is demanding. Tshisekedi had slammed the door of the plenary the day before, angry at the silence of the French president on the situation in the DRC, according to a Congolese government source to AFP.

Harmonized plan

On the Angolan mediation side, discussions are running into new blockages despite the “important” compromises obtained recently with a view to a possible peace agreement, starting with the cease-fire agreement signed at the end of July, according to Rwandan and Congolese sources contacted by AFP.

Alongside ongoing political discussions, intelligence officials from both countries met in secret several times in August to establish a “harmonized plan” for ending the crisis, the sources said.

This plan, which was spread over four months, consisted for the Congolese to launch operations to “neutralize” the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), to respond to the concerns of Kigali. This rebel group formed by former senior Hutu leaders of the genocide of the Tutsi in Rwanda in 1994, and who have since taken refuge in the DRC, constitutes a permanent threat in the eyes of Kigali.

In return, Rwanda gave the green light to “a disengagement of forces” deployed in the east of the DRC and hostile to Kinshasa.

Alas. The progress of the negotiations finally came to a halt on September 14, at the end of yet another meeting between the Rwandan and Congolese foreign ministers Olivier Nduhungirehe and Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner.

Go further

The first, questioned by AFP, accuses the DRC of having “blocked everything” over a matter of timing, “because the harmonized plan planned to launch operations to neutralize the FDLR on D+25”, while the withdrawal of rebel and Rwandan “forces” was to begin five days later, on D+30.

“The plan proposed was reasonable, it was a good plan,” Nduhungirehe assures.

“The principle that should have been enacted is that of the simultaneity of operations, because it is much more effective,” the Congolese government source told AFP. “In any case, it is not the military and intelligence experts who ultimately decide, but the political leaders.”

At the U.N. on September 25, President Tshisekedi unsurprisingly called on the international community to impose “targeted sanctions” against Rwanda, insisting that its military presence on Congolese soil is an “aggression (which) constitutes a major violation of our national sovereignty.”

“Approving this plan would have been politically risky for Tshisekedi, reelected a year ago on a belligerent program towards Kagame and it could have been interpreted by public opinion as a 180-degree turnaround,” explains Onesphore Sematumba, expert for the International Crisis Group (ICG).

According to him, “there will be no purely military solution to the current crisis which has caused a humanitarian catastrophe [with nearly 7 million internally displaced people], it is an illusion.”

“We will have to go much further than the ‘harmonized plan,'” he said, and address the issue of mineral resources, the subject of fierce competition, but also political dialogue with the myriad of armed groups present on the ground.

In the meantime, the Angolan mediator has proposed a new inter-ministerial meeting on October 12. Both parties assure AFP that they will go. 
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Tunis — Tunisians cast ballots on Sunday in a presidential election, with incumbent Kais Saied expected to secure another five years in office as his main critics are behind bars.

Three years after Saied staged a sweeping power grab, the election is seen as a closing chapter in Tunisia’s experiment with democracy.

The North African country had prided itself for more than a decade for being the birthplace of the Arab Spring uprisings against dictatorship.

The ISIE electoral board said about 9.7 million people were expected to turn out. About 47% of them are aged between 36 and 60.

At one polling station in central Tunis, a group of mostly older men were seen lining up to vote.

“I came to support Kais Saied,” 69-year-old Nouri Masmoudi said. “My whole family is going to vote for him.”

Fadhila, 66, said she voted “in response to those who called for a boycott.”

The station had seen “a good influx of voters,” mostly over 40 years of age, its director, Noureddine Jouini, said, with 200 voters in the first half hour of polling.

An hour into the vote, Farouk Bouasker, head of ISIE, said the board had seen a “considerable attendance” of voters.

In another station in the capital, Hosni Abidi, 40, said he feared electoral fraud.

“I don’t want people to choose for me,” he said. “I want to check the box for my candidate myself.”

In Bab Jedid, a working-class neighborhood, there were fewer voters, and most were elderly men.

Saied cast his ballot alongside his wife at a station in Ennasr, north of Tunis, in the morning.

After rising to power in a landslide in 2019, Saied led a sweeping power grab that saw him rewrite the constitution.

A burgeoning crackdown on dissent ensued, and a number of Saied’s critics across the political spectrum were jailed, sparking criticism both at home and abroad.

New York-based Human Rights Watch has said more than “170 people are detained in Tunisia on political grounds or for exercising their fundamental rights.”

Jailed opposition figures include Rached Ghannouchi, head of the Islamist-inspired opposition party Ennahdha, which dominated political life after the revolution.

Also detained is Abir Moussi, head of the Free Destourian Party, which critics accuse of wanting to bring back the regime that was ousted in 2011.

‘Pharaoh manipulating the law’

“Many fear that a new mandate for Saied will only deepen the country’s socio-economic woes, as well as hasten the regime’s authoritarian drift,” the International Crisis Group recently said.

Yet voters are being presented with almost no alternative to Saied, after ISIE barred 14 hopefuls from standing in the race, citing insufficient endorsements among other technicalities.

Mohamed Aziz, a 21-year-old voter, said he was “motivated by the elections because choosing the right person for the next five years is important.”

Hundreds of people protested in the capital on Friday, marching along a heavily policed Habib Bourguiba Avenue as some demonstrators bore signs denouncing Saied, 66, as a “Pharaoh manipulating the law.”

Standing against him Sunday are former lawmaker Zouhair Maghzaoui, 59, who backed Saied’s power grab in 2021, and Ayachi Zammel, 47, a little-known businessman who has been in jail since his bid was approved by ISIE last month.

Zammel currently faces more than 14 years in prison on accusations of having forged endorsement signatures to enable him to stand in the election.

In a speech on Thursday, Saied called for a “massive turnout to vote” and usher in what he called an era of “reconstruction.”

He cited “a long war against conspiratorial forces linked to foreign circles,” accusing them of “infiltrating many public services and disrupting hundreds of projects” under his tenure.

The International Crisis Group said while Saied “enjoys significant support among the working classes, he has been criticized for failing to resolve the country’s deep economic crisis”.

Voting is set to end at 6:00 pm (1700 GMT).

The electoral board has said preliminary results should come no later than Wednesday but may be known earlier.
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KAMITUGA, Congo — It’s been four months since Sifa Kunguja recovered from mpox, but as a sex worker, she said, she’s still struggling to regain clients, with fear and stigma driving away people who’ve heard she had the virus. 

“It’s risky work,” Kunguja, 40, said from her small home in eastern Congo. “But if I don’t work, I won’t have money for my children.”

Sex workers are among those hardest-hit by the mpox outbreak in Kamituga, where some 40,000 of them are estimated to reside — many single mothers driven by poverty to this mineral-rich commercial hub where gold miners comprise the majority of the clientele. Doctors estimate 80% of cases here have been contracted sexually, though the virus also spreads through other kinds of skin-to-skin contact.

Sex workers say the situation threatens their health and livelihoods. Health officials warn that more must be done to stem the spread — with a focus on sex workers — or mpox will creep deeper through eastern Congo and the region.

Mpox causes mostly mild symptoms such as fever and body aches, but serious cases can mean prominent, painful blisters on the face, hands, chest and genitals.

Kunguja and other sex workers insist that despite risks of reinfection or spreading the virus, they have no choice but to keep working. Sex work isn’t illegal in Congo, though related activities such as solicitation are. Rights groups say possible legal consequences and fear of retribution — sex workers are subject to high rates of violence including rape and abuse — prevent women from seeking medical care. That can be especially detrimental during a public health emergency, according to experts.

Health officials in Kamituga are advocating for the government to shutter nightclubs and mines and compensate sex workers for lost business.

Not everyone agrees. Local officials say they don’t have resources to do more than care for those who are sick, and insist it’s sex workers’ responsibility to protect themselves.

Kamituga Mayor Alexandre Bundya M’pila told The Associated Press that the government is creating awareness campaigns but lacks money to reach everyone. He also said sex workers should look for other jobs, without providing examples of what might be available.

Sex work a big part of economy

Miners stream into Kamituga by the tens of thousands. The economy is centered on the mines: Buyers line streets, traders travel to sell gold, small businesses and individuals provide food and lodging, and the sex industry flourishes.

Nearly a dozen sex workers spoke to AP. They said well over half their clients are miners.

The industry is well organized, according to the Kenyan-based African Sex Workers Alliance, composed of sex worker-led groups. The alliance estimates that 13% of Kamituga’s 300,000 residents are sex workers.

The town has 18 sex-worker committees, the alliance said, with a leadership that tries to work with government officials, protect and support colleagues, and advocate for their rights.

But sex work in Congo is dangerous. Women face systematic violence that’s tolerated by society, according to a report by UMANDE, a local sex-worker rights group.

Many women are forced into the industry because of poverty or because, like Kunguja, they’re single parents and must support their families.

Getting mpox can put sex workers out of business

The sex workers who spoke to AP described mpox as an added burden. Many are terrified of getting the virus — it means time away from work, lost income and perhaps losing business altogether.

Those who recover are stigmatized, they said. Kamituga is a small place, where most everyone knows one another. Neighbors whisper and tell clients when someone is sick — people talk and point.

Since contracting mpox in May, Kunguja said she’s gone from about 20 clients daily to five. She’s been supporting her 11 children through sex work for nearly a decade but said she now can’t afford to send them to school. To compensate, she’s selling alcohol by day, but it’s not enough.

Experts say information and awareness are key

Disease experts say a lack of vaccines and information makes stemming the spread difficult.

Some 250,000 vaccines have arrived in Congo, but it’s unclear when any will get to Kamituga. Sex workers and miners are among those slated to receive them first.

Community leaders and aid groups are trying to teach sex workers about protecting themselves and their clients via awareness sessions where they discuss signs and symptoms. They also press condom use, which they say isn’t widespread enough in the industry.

Sex workers told AP that they insist on using condoms when they have them, but that they simply don’t have enough.

Kamituga’s general hospital gives them boxes of about 140 condoms every few months. Some sex workers see up to 60 clients a day — for less than $1 a person. Condoms run out, and workers say they can’t afford more.

Dr. Guy Mukari, an epidemiologist working with the National Institute of Biomedical Research in Congo, noted that the variant running rampant in Kamituga seems more susceptible to transmission via sex, making for a double whammy with the sex industry.
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cairo — As the performers took the stage and the traditional drum beat gained momentum, Sudanese refugees sitting in the audience were moved to tears. Hadia Moussa said the melody reminded her of the country’s Nuba Mountains, her family’s ancestral home. 

“Performances like this help people mentally affected by the war. It reminds us of the Sudanese folklore and our culture,” she said. 

Sudan has been engulfed by violence since April 2023, when war between the Sudanese military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces broke out across the country. The conflict has turned the capital, Khartoum, into an urban battlefield and displaced 4.6 million people, according to the United Nations migration agency, including more than 419,000 people who fled to Egypt. 

A band with 12 Sudanese members now lives with thousands of refugees in Egypt. The troupe, called “Camirata,” includes researchers, singers and poets who are determined to preserve the knowledge of traditional Sudanese folk music and dance to keep it from being lost in the ruinous war. 

Founded in 1997, the band rose to popularity in Khartoum before it began traveling to different states, enlisting diverse musicians, dancers and styles. They sing in 25 different Sudanese languages. Founder Dafallah el-Hag said the band’s members started relocating to Egypt recently, as Sudan struggled through a difficult economic and political transition after a 2019 popular uprising unseated longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir. Others followed after the violence began. El-Hag arrived late last year. 

The band uses a variety of local musical instruments on stage. El-Hag says audiences are often surprised to see instruments such as the tanbour, a stringed instrument, being played with the nuggara drums, combined with tunes of the banimbo, a wooden xylophone. 

“This combination of musical instruments helped promote some sort of forgiveness and togetherness among the Sudanese people,” el-Hag said, adding that he is eager to revive a museum in Khartoum that housed historic instruments and was reportedly looted and damaged. 

Fatma Farid, 21, a singer and dancer from Kordofan, moved to Egypt in 2021. Her aunt was killed in 2023 when an explosive fell on their house in al-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan. 

“The way I see art has changed a lot since the war began,” she said. “You think of what you present as an artist. You can deliver a message.” 

Kawthar Osman, a native of Madani city who has been singing with the band since 1997, feels nostalgic when she sings about the Nile River, which forms in Sudan from two upper branches, the Blue and White Nile. 

“It reminds me of what makes Sudan the way it is,” she said, adding that the war only “pushed the band to sing more for peace.” 

More than 2 million Sudanese fled the country, mostly to neighboring Egypt and Chad, where the Global Hunger Index has reported a “serious” level of hunger. Over half a million forcibly displaced Sudanese have sought refuge in Chad, mostly women and children. 

Living conditions for those who stayed in Sudan have worsened as the war spread beyond Khartoum. Many made hard decisions early in the war either to flee across frontlines or risk being caught in the middle of fighting. In Darfur, the war turned particularly brutal and created famine conditions, with militias attacking entire villages and burning them to the ground. 

Armed robberies, lootings and the seizure of homes for bases were some of the challenges faced by Sudanese who stayed in the country’s urban areas. Others struggled to secure food and water, find sources for electricity, and obtain medical treatment since hospitals were raided by fighters or hit by airstrikes. Communications networks are often barely functional. 

The performers say they struggle to speak with family and friends still in the country, much less think about returning. 

“We don’t know if we’ll return to Sudan again or will see Sudan again or walk in the same streets,” Farid said. 
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Abuja — Hundreds gathered in Abuja, Nigeria for the 2024 Childhood Cancer Awareness Walk, raising awareness and support for pediatric cancer. Despite progress in cancer care, Nigerian children face high costs and delayed diagnoses, which the walk aims to address.

Titilayo Adewumi joined the walk with her 13-year-old son Shittu, diagnosed with leukemia at age 5. With support from the Okapi Children Cancer Foundation, Shittu is now cancer-free.

Adewumi recounts the toll her son’s cancer diagnosis took on her family.

“I had to stop working for like 4 – 5 years so I could concentrate on him,” she said. “We went out of cash, we didn’t have money, that is when the Okapi visited us … I was so excited when the doctor told me that he was free of cancer, I felt like jumping into the roof and back I was so happy because it was not easy.”

Among the walkers was Izuyor Tobi. He brought his daughter Hope, who battled neuroblastoma. Treatment costs nearly drained the family’s finances until Okapi intervened. Today, Hope is healthy.

Tobi believes that spreading awareness about pediatric cancer will save lives.

“If not for Okapi Children Cancer Foundation, I don’t think my daughter will be alive today… What I do is to create more awareness by telling people what Okapi Children Cancer Foundation has done for my daughter,” he said.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 80% of childhood cancers occur in low-income countries like Nigeria, where many cases go undiagnosed or are detected late.

Pediatric oncologist Ifeoma Ezeukwu from the Federal Medical Center explained barriers to care.

“Ignorance is also another barrier,” she said. “I have come across so many people who will tell you, I never knew children could have cancer. … Early detection is key to survival in childhood cancer unlike the adult cancers; children, the prognosis are better in them when they are seen early, once you capture cancer early, you know that cure is what is expected.”

Kemi Adekanye founded the Okapi Children Cancer Foundation in 2017 and has been mobilizing community awareness and support. Funded by friends and family, the foundation has helped over 200 children access treatment, despite costs starting at $180.

Adekanye says they’re focused on influencing government action for pediatric cancer.

“As of today, there’s currently no supports being provided to children battling cancer, so we expect the government to intervene in terms of subsidizing treatment costs for children battling cancer, as well as equipping our hospitals more so people don’t have to travel far and wide to access oncology centers,” she said.

Health policy analyst Ejike Oji called for systemic reforms across Nigeria to ease the burden on families.

“The government should establish dedicated pediatric oncology wards across the country to provide grounds for training health care professionals to ensure their skills are good in diagnosing and treating childhood cancer,” he said. “If you look at the cancer from diagnosis to treatment, it’s a lot of money. Radiotherapy is one of the most expensive; most families cannot afford.”

The large turnout at the 8th Childhood Cancer Awareness Walk — ‘Bridge The Gap’ —showed the power of community mobilization.

Nigerians are advocating for better health care, early diagnosis and family support, ensuring no child faces cancer alone.
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Tunis — Tunisian politician Ayachi Zammel, a candidate in the north African country’s October 6 presidential election, has been jailed for 12 years, his lawyer said on Tuesday.

“The court in Tunis sentenced Ayachi Zammel to 12 years in prison in four cases” related to voter endorsements, lawyer Abdessater Messoudi told AFP.

Messoudi said Zammel “remains a candidate in the election” on Sunday.

The frontrunner is incumbent President Kais Saied, who was elected in 2019 but later orchestrated a sweeping power grab that included dissolving parliament and replacing it with a legislature with limited powers.

Former lawmaker Zammel heads a small liberal party, and had been one of just two candidates approved by Tunisia’s electoral authority ISIE to challenge Saied for the top post.

Ahead of the vote, ISIE had rejected the bids of some 14 hopefuls.

It eventually presented a final list of just three candidates — Saied, former parliamentarian Zouhair Maghzaoui and businessman Zammel.

On September 18, his lawyer said Zammel had been handed a 20-month prison term for charges related to forging voter endorsements.

 
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PENTAGON — Islamic State in Somalia has approximately doubled in size over the past year, the chief of U.S. Africa Command told VOA.

“I am concerned about the northern part of Somalia and ISIS growing in numbers,” AFRICOM commander Gen. Michael Langley said in an exclusive interview, using an acronym for the terror group.

Langley declined to provide the United States’ estimate of how many Islamic State fighters are in Somalia, other than to say that the group’s had grown about “twofold” in the past year. Previous estimates have put the number of Islamic State fighters in north Somalia at about 200 fighters.

The AFRICOM commander also warned about the possibility of Islamic State increasing its foreign fighter presence in Somalia. 

Somali Brigadier General Abdi Hassan Hussein, the former intelligence and police commander of Puntland, where Islamic State is located in the north, told VOA earlier this year that the number of Islamic State foreign fighters there alone is estimated in the hundreds. This figure has yet to be confirmed by local authorities.

A U.S. official told VOA in June that Abdulqadir Mumin, the leader of Islamic State in Somalia, had been targeted in an American airstrike in May. Mumin appears to have survived the strike. 

Asked whether Mumin was now the global leader of IS, Langley said the U.S. must take those reports as “credible.”

“ISIS professes that. Sometimes you’ve got to take that seriously,” he said.

Al-Shabab 

The increase in Islamic State fighters in northern Somalia comes as the al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabab has exploited diplomatic disagreements between Somalia and Ethiopia to raise its recruitment numbers. 

Landlocked Ethiopia and Somalia’s breakaway Somaliland region signed a memorandum of understanding earlier this year to use its Red Sea port of Berbera, a deal that Somalia has rejected. Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre on Friday accused Ethiopia, before the U.N. General Assembly, of actions that “flagrantly violate” Somalia’s territorial integrity.

“The have used that (dispute) to their advantage,” Langley told VOA.

Al-Shabab has been back at high numbers of between 12,000 to 13,000 fighters due to strong financing and heavy recruitment efforts, senior defense officials told VOA in June.

The political rift has bled into counter-terror cooperation between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu, with Langley telling VOA that Somali operations with Ethiopia have been “limited.”

“Time will tell if they can settle their differences and coalesce into a force that’s very effective, because when they do work together, they’re very, very effective at clearing out al-Shabab.’’

Al-Shabab has continued attacks on civilians, including in the Mogadishu area. The terror group claimed responsibility for a gun attack and suicide bombing that killed at least 32 people in August on a popular beach in the Somalia’s capital. The group is also suspected to have carried out two deadly bombings on Saturday, one in Middle Shabelle region and another about one kilometer from the president’s office.

Al-Shabab has suffered defeats from the South West State of Somalia down to the Juba River Valley and has sought to reset and counter-attack in those areas.

However, in central Somalia, al-Shabab has reversed gains made by Somali forces over the last two years as government forces failed to hold the terrain they had retaken, according to senior U.S. defense officials. 

“We need a credible holding force, because sometimes shadow governments of al-Shabaab try to re-insert themselves back in that region and try to influence some of the local leaders,” Langley said. 

He said the time following the clearing and liberating of a region is a “very fragile period” where Somalia and partners like the U.S. Agency for International Development can initiate local services that will increase the population’s faith in the federal government.

“If they can’t sustain that because they’re moving to the next region or next district, it ebbs,” he said, adding that U.S. training was currently focused on helping Somali forces hold liberated terrain.

The Somali government has pointed to the El Dheer and Harardhere areas as evidence that some liberated terrain in central Somalia remains under government control.

ATMIS transition

Later this year, the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia will leave the country after nearly two years of helping Somalia fight al-Shabab terrorists and will be replaced in 2025 by a new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia. Which forces will be comprised in the mission is still being worked out by the African Union and the United Nations.

Langley ruled out any U.S. role in the transition, saying American forces would maintain only their advise-and-assist mission.

“Our piece of enabling is not our boots on the ground. We’re there to advise and assist, and assist in their training, but the fight is theirs,” he told VOA.

Houthis

In addition to Islamic State and al-Shabab, Somalia also must worry about Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, just north of Somalia across the Gulf of Aden, whom Langley says have “aspirations” to collaborate with al-Shabab.

“We’re concerned, and we’re closely watching that, because this can turn into a bad neighborhood real quick,” he said.

Should the Houthis and al-Shabab put pressure on the Gulf of Aden from opposite sides, Langley worries that squeezing this strategic choke point could further hinder the free flow of commerce and affect the global economy. And analysts fear that Houthis could insert more sophisticated weapons into the fight for Somalia.

Houthi militants have targeted more than 80 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza started in October, seizing one, sinking two and killing at least four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by a U.S.-led coalition in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets.

The Houthi militant campaign began after Israel launched a retaliatory attack against Hamas in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7 terror attack, and the Houthis claim they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians during the war.

Harun Maruf and Mohamed Olad Hassan contributed to this report.
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Nairobi — Officials from Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are meeting for the fourth time in less than two years to find ways to more effectively fight transnational crimes around the Lake Victoria area.

Some of the crimes are nature-related, such as illegal fishing, tree cutting and charcoal production. In other cases, criminals take advantage of porous borders to sell drugs and conduct human trafficking. In 2021, the police organization Interpol rescued 121 people trafficked in and around Lake Victoria.  

Speaking to reporters at the port city of Mombasa, Kenya’s interior ministry principal secretary, Raymond Omollo, said the parties were looking to close gaps in policing and surveillance, while also improving social and economic relations of communities living in the lake region.  

“So we are looking at how to coordinate better, how to build capacities, how to have a common understanding with the communities around the lake and also who benefits from the use of the lake on how to manage those resources better while at the same [time] trying to minimize, eradicate a crime that we know is common in the lake,” Omollo said. 

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) launched the Lake Victoria project in December 2022. 

The world’s second-largest freshwater lake covers 60,000 square kilometers and is a source of livelihood for at least 40 million people in East Africa. 

Uganda’s assistant commissioner for migration, Marcellino Bwesigye, told conference attendees that keeping Lake Victoria safe is important for his country. 

“Lake Victoria is Uganda’s ocean. So, we are looking forward to working together, especially to learn about the good practices that you have from the coast,” Bwesigye said.   

Authorities have documented illegal fishing in the lake, driven by rising demand for Nile perch, as well as charcoal harvesting and timber smuggling. 

Sharon Dimanche, IOM Kenya’s chief of mission, said authorities need to partner with communities to fight organized crime in the region.  

“If the border communities are not informed, if they really don’t know what … we need to focus on, then it becomes a bit challenging to combat any of these transnational organized crimes because they are there and they know what is happening and they know some strange faces that are coming in their communities. So it’s important that we link them up, they have a good relationship with law enforcement agencies,” Dimanche said. 

The meeting in Mombasa ends Wednesday.
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united nations — The U.N. Security Council on Monday approved a one-year renewal for a multinational police force to help Haiti’s embattled national police subdue gangs in the violence-plagued Caribbean nation, and it will now consider turning the mission into a full-fledged U.N. peacekeeping operation.

“In adopting this resolution today, the Council has helped Haiti continue re-establishing security and creating the conditions necessary to holding free and fair elections,” U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said. “So, let us work together to build on the progress of the Haiti MSS [Multinational Security Support] mission. Let us embrace a new approach that sustains it. Let us protect the fragile but inspiring opportunity to build a better future for the Haitian people.”

The United States and Ecuador drafted the resolution to extend the mission through October 2, 2025. In the interim, Haiti’s transitional government has requested that the 15-nation Security Council begin discussions for transforming the non-U.N. force into a U.N. peacekeeping operation.

“The transformation of the MSS into a peacekeeping operation under the mandate of the United Nations appears not just to be necessary, but a matter of urgency,” Haitian Ambassador Antonio Rodrigue told the council.

He said making it one would guarantee more stable and predictable financing and expand the force’s capacities. Currently the mission has faced a continued shortfall in funds, equipment and logistics capabilities.

“We firmly believe that this is an approach which is crucial to maintain the gains of the MSS to enhance national security and to establish necessary conditions for the conduct of free and fair elections in the near future,” Rodrigue said.

He said despite some progress in the three months since the first contingent of about 400 Kenyan police deployed to Haiti, the country still faces significant and complicated challenges.

“Gang violence continues to rend the social fabric and human rights violations are multiplying, plunging thousands of families into distress,” the Haitian envoy said. “Insecurity is omnipresent, paralyzing the economy, undermining in the institutions and fueling fear among the population.”

Kenya is leading the mission and its president, William Ruto, visited Haiti about a week and a half ago to meet with officials and Kenyan and Haitian police forces. Ruto said at the U.N. General Assembly last week that he plans to deploy another Kenyan contingent to Haiti by January.

So far only about 500 police have been deployed, the majority from Kenya and the rest from Jamaica and Belize. Diplomats say they expect other countries will also be deploying.

Kenya’s U.N. envoy pointed to some initial progress in the capital, Port-au-Prince, including their securing important infrastructure, such as the airport and National Hospital, and several major road intersections.

But he noted the mission needs to quickly reach its fully mandated level of 2,500 personnel and the political transition needs to move ahead.

“I must also emphasize that while the MSS mission is a crucial and innovative intervention, it is only a part of the solution,” Ambassador Erastus Ekitela Lokaale said. “Haiti’s stability will only be accomplished through a multi-pronged approach that addresses the root causes of its challenges.”

Haiti has been rocked by instability since 2021, when President Jovenel Moise was assassinated. Prime Minister Ariel Henry then led the country until he announced his resignation in March. A transitional government is now in place with the goal of organizing free and fair elections. Haiti has not held elections since 2016.

The country is facing a massive humanitarian crisis as a result of the violence. On Monday, international food monitors said more than half the country’s population – 5.4 million people – are struggling to feed themselves. At least 6,000 displaced persons in shelters in the capital are facing catastrophic levels of hunger, while 2 million people are one step behind them.
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Tunis — At least 12 Tunisians including three children were found dead after a migrant boat capsized off the coast of the southeastern island of Djerba on Monday, a judicial official said.  

The boat went down at dawn and 29 people were rescued, Medenine court spokesman Fethi Baccouche told AFP, adding five men and four women were among the dead, and that the cause of the sinking remained unknown.  

The Tunisian National Guard said it was alerted by four migrants who swam back ashore.   

Tunisia and neighboring Libya have become key departure points for migrants seeking better lives in Europe, often risking dangerous Mediterranean crossings. 

The exodus is fueled by Tunisia’s stagnant economy, with only 0.4% of growth in 2023 and unemployment soaring.  

The North African country has also been shaken by political tensions, after President Kais Saied orchestrated a sweeping power grab in July 2021.  

Each year, tens of thousands of people attempt to make the crossing, with Italy — whose Lampedusa island is only 150 kilometers (90 miles) away — often their first port of call.  

Since January 1, at least 103 makeshift boats have capsized and 341 bodies have been recovered off Tunisia’s coast, the government says.  

Last year, more than 1,300 people died or disappeared last year in shipwrecks off Tunisia, according to the FTDES rights group.  

The International Organization for Migration has said more than 30,309 migrants have died in the Mediterranean in the past decade, including more than 3,000 last year. 
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TINMEL, Morocco — The hand-carved domes and brick-laid arches had almost all been put back together when an earthquake shook Morocco so violently that they caved in on themselves and crashed to the earth. 

After nearly 900 years, the Great Mosque of Tinmel lay in pieces — its minaret toppled, its prayer hall full of rubble, its outer walls knocked over. 

But even in ruins, it remained holy ground for the residents of Tinmel. Villagers carried the sheet-laden bodies of the 15 community members killed in the quake down the hillside and placed them in front of the decimated mosque. 

Among the mourners was Mohamed Hartatouch, who helped carry the remains of his son Abdelkrim, 33. A substitute teacher, he died under bricks and collapsed walls while the village waited a day and a half for rescue crews to arrive. 

“It looked like a storm. I wasn’t able to feel anything,” the grieving father said, remembering the day after the quake. 

One year later, the rubble near Hartatouch’s half-standing home has been swept aside and Tinmel residents are eager to rebuild their homes and the mosque. They say the sacred site is a point of pride and source of income in a region where infrastructure and jobs were lacking long before the earthquake hit. 

“It’s our past,” Redwan Aitsalah, 32, a construction worker, said the week before the earthquake’s anniversary as he reconstructed his home overlooking the mosque. 

The September 2023 quake left a path of destruction that will take Morocco years to recover from. It killed nearly 3,000 people, knocked down almost 60,000 homes and leveled at least 585 schools. Rebuilding will cost about $12.3 billion, according to government estimates. 

Stretches of road were left unnavigable, including Tizi N’Test, the steep mountain pass that weaves from Marrakech to Tinmel and some of the hardest-hit villages near the earthquake’s epicenter. 

Workers are now sifting through the rubble, searching for the mosque’s puzzle pieces. They are stacking usable bricks and sorting the fragments of remaining decorative elements arch by arch and dome by dome, preparing to rebuild the mosque using as much of the remains as possible. 

Though incomparable to the human loss and suffering, the restoration effort is among Morocco’s priorities as it attempts to rebuild. 

The country’s Ministry of Islamic Affairs and Ministry of Culture have recruited Moroccan architects, archaeologists and engineers to oversee the project. To assist, the Italian government has sent Moroccan-born architect Aldo Giorgio Pezzi, who had also consulted on Casablanca’s Hassan II Mosque, one of Africa’s largest. 

“We will rebuild it based on the evidence and remains that we have so it returns to how it was,” Morocco’s Minister of Islamic Affairs Ahmed Toufiq told The Associated Press. 

The Great Mosque was a marvel of North African architecture with lobed arches, hand-carved moldings and the adobe-style bricks used to construct most the area’s structures. 

It was undergoing an 18-month restoration project when the quake struck, causing its ornate domes and pillars to cave in. Its clay-colored remnants lay in pieces beneath scaffolding erected by restoration workers from villages throughout the region, five of whom also died. 

“The mosque withstood centuries. It’s the will of God,” Nadia El Bourakkadi, the site’s conservationist, told local media. The temblor leveled it months before repairs and renovations were to be completed. 

Like in many of the area’s villages, residents of Tinmel today live in plastic tents brought in as temporary shelter post-earthquake. Some are there because it feels safer than their half-ruined homes, others because they have nowhere else to go. 

Officials have issued more than 55,000 reconstruction permits for villagers to build new homes, including for most of the homes in Tinmel. The government has distributed financial aid in phases. Most households with destroyed homes have received an initial $2,000 installment of rebuilding aid, but not more. 

Many have complained that isn’t enough to underwrite the initial costs of rebuilding. Fewer than 1,000 have completed rebuilding, according to the government’s own figures. 

Despite the extent of their personal losses, Moroccans are also mourning the loss of revered cultural heritage. Centuries-old mosques, shrines, fortresses and lodges are scattered throughout the mountains. Unlike Tinmel, many have long been neglected as Morocco focuses its development efforts elsewhere. 

The country sees Tinmel as the cradle of one of its most storied civilizations. The mosque served as a source of inspiration for widely visited sacred sites in Marrakech and Seville. Pilgrims once trekked through the High Atlas to pay their respects and visit. Yet centuries ago it fell into disrepair as political power shifted to Morocco’s larger cities and coastline. 

“It was abandoned by the state, but materials were never taken from it,” said Mouhcine El Idrissi, an archaeologist working with Morocco’s Ministry of Culture. “People here have long respected it as a witness to their glorious and spiritual past.” 

Some of the historic sites of the High Atlas have long been a lure to tourists. But the earthquake shone a spotlight on the vast disparities plaguing the primarily agricultural region. Poverty and illiteracy rates are higher than the nationwide average, according to census data and an October 2023 government report on the five earthquake-hit provinces. 

“The mountainous areas most affected were those already suffering from geographical isolation,” Civil Coalition for the Mountain, a group of Moroccan NGOs, said in a statement on the earthquake’s anniversary. “The tragedy revealed structural differences, and a situation caused by development policies that have always kept the mountains outside the scope of their objectives.” 

“There’s a Morocco that exists in Rabat and Marrakech, but we’re talking about another Morocco that’s in the mountains,” added Najia Ait Mohannad, the group’s regional coordinator. “Right now, the most urgent need is rebuilding houses.” 

The government has promised “a well-thought-out, integrated and ambitious program” for the reconstruction and general upgrading of the affected regions, both in terms of infrastructure reinforcement and improving public services. It has also pledged to rebuild “in harmony with the region’s heritage and respecting its unique architectural features” and “to respect the dignity and customs” of the population. 

For the village’s residents, the landmark could stand as a symbol of reinvestment in one of Morocco’s poorest regions, as well as a tribute to a glorious past. 

For now, it stands in disrepair, its enchanting ruins upheld by wooden scaffolding, while down the hill, villagers hang laundry and grow vegetables amid the remnants of their former homes and the plastic tents where they now live.
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DAKAR, Senegal — Extremist attacks in Sahel, an arid swath of land south of the Sahara in Africa, have proliferated in recent months: Last week, Islamic militants attacked Bamako, the capital of Mali, for the first time in almost a decade, demonstrating their capacity to carry out large scale assaults. And last month, at least 100 villagers and soldiers were killed in central Burkina Faso during a weekend attack on a village by al-Qaida-linked jihadis, as they were forcibly helping security forces dig trenches to protect security outposts and villages.

Here’s what we know about the security situation in Sahel:

A region characterized by uprisings and coups

Over the last decade, the region has been shaken by extremist uprisings and military coups. Three Sahelian nations, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, are now ruled by military leaders who have taken power by force, on the pledge of providing more security to citizens.

But the security situation in Sahel has worsened since the juntas took power, analysts say, with a record number of attacks and a record number of civilians killed both by Islamic fighters and government forces. Over the first six months of this year, 3,064 civilians were killed by the violence, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, a 25% increase compared to the previous 6 months.

Extremist groups operating in Sahel, and what they want

The main two groups operating in the region are the al-Qaida-linked militant group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), and the Islamic State in the Sahel. Over the last year, the JNIM has strengthened its presence in Mali and Burkina Faso, by becoming a more coherent political grouping.

“The local populations support (JNIM) more than IS-affiliated groups,” said analyst Shaantanu Shankar of the Economist Intelligence Unit. “They have integrated local rebel groups, which have close community ties.”

Unlike JNIM, Islamic State in the Sahel is a loose coalition of anti-government forces that is much less entrenched politically, he said. They are much more dominant in the Lake Chad region.

These groups attack, terrorize and kill local populations and their actions likely amount to war crimes, according to rights organizations.

In addition, there are also a number of local militia groups on the ground, which are not affiliated with IS or al-Qaida, as violence has exploded between rival ethnicities and local self-defense groups resulting in a self-perpetuating spiral of violence.

Why the extremists in Sahel are getting stronger

The military juntas in three countries have capitalized on popular discontent with the former democratically elected governments, which they saw as corrupt and propped up by France.

After coming into power, all three juntas left the Economic Community of West African States, the nearly 50-year-old regional bloc known as ECOWAS, and created their own security partnership, the Alliance of Sahel States, in September. They have cut ties with the traditional Western allies, ousting French and American military forces, and instead sought new security ties with Russia.

“There is a huge security vacuum after the withdrawal of the French and American military” from the region, said Shankar, which cannot be filled by Russia. Troops from the Wagner Group, the Russian private military company, present in the region are being financed by the junta governments, Shankar added, with fewer financial resources.

But experts say the other factor fueling instability is the worsening economic situation, as well as the lack of job opportunities, which contribute to the rising popularity of extremist groups. In all three countries, Islamic extremists have been recruiting among groups marginalized and neglected by the central governments.

“There are very few opportunities for people in rural Sahel, especially the youth,” said Heni Nsabia, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project analysis coordinator for West Africa. “But the other aspect is that people whose families and communities were targeted by state forces seek security, status and vengeance.”

How the groups finance themselves

Despite being affiliated with al-Qaida and the Islamic State group, extremist groups in the Sahel mostly get financial resources within their own strongholds, analysts said. They impose taxes on the local population, take control of the management of natural resources, especially of gold, and steal cattle.

They also impose sieges on towns and use kidnappings, improvised explosive devices and landmines as they seek to control supply routs and resources.

The extremists are also involved in trafficking, especially of drugs, said Aaryaman Shah, a security analyst who specializes in the financing of extremist groups. And they profit from people smuggling — which might bring them even more money in the future.

“We are concerned about the recent turmoil in Libya, and how that could actually affect the migrant flow,” said Shah. “We are also looking at Niger, where the junta disbanded the law stopping people from crossing into Libya.”

The business model that these groups developed is very diversified, analysts said. “This is why it is difficult to destroy them economically,” said Nsabia from ACLED. “If you target one aspect, they have other sources of revenues.”

The outlook for the future

Analysts predict that the situation in the Sahel is going to worsen in the coming months, with the military governments becoming increasingly desperate as they focus on preserving their political existence, and no way of holding them accountable.

“It’s a very volatile phase, security is projected to get worse in the next two years,” said Shankar of the Economist Intelligence Unit.

And the violence has been spilling outside the Sahel borders: Extremists believed to be linked to al-Qaida have crossed into Benin and the north of Nigeria, the latest trend in the militants’ movements to wealthier West African coastal nations.

“It’s undeniable that things are getting worse, and the scope of the threat has been expanding,” said Nsabia. “Today, we should not be talking only about Sahel, but also about Benin and Togo, where the JNIM have done excursions as far as 200 kilometers inland.”

Europe and United States are seeking to support the governments of these coastal nations in their counter-terrorism efforts. Michael Langley, the top U.S. commander for Africa, told reporters last week the U.S. was in talks with Ivory Coast, Ghana and Benin as the country starts “to reset and recalibrate some of our assets.”

A major challenge has been, and will continue to be, access to information, experts said. All juntas significantly restricted journalism, so now they are in complete control of the narrative, including of who is defined as a jihadi. In Mali, the government branded all Touaregs an ethnic group which staged a rebellion against the government, as jihadis, although only some of them allied with JNIM.
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