…

Taipei, Taiwan — China launched a fresh round of diplomatic outreach to Southeast Asia this week, as Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto Monday and foreign ministers from Laos, Vietnam and East Timor began to arrive in Beijing Tuesday.

The diplomatic charm offensive comes amid territorial disputes between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, and efforts by the U.S. and its allies to strengthen maritime cooperation in the region.

In his meeting with Prabowo on Monday, Xi promised to “deepen all-round strategic cooperation with Indonesia,” including joint efforts on maritime affairs. Prabowo said he hoped Beijing and Jakarta could strengthen cooperation in areas such as the economy, trade, and poverty alleviation.

During the three-day visit by as many foreign ministers, Beijing hopes to “further work with the three countries to follow through the guidance of the important common understandings between General Secretary and President Xi Jinping and leaders of the three Southeast Asian countries,” said a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.

Next week, the U.S. will hold a high-profile summit with Japan and the Philippines. Leaders from the three countries are expected to discuss contentious regional security issues, including the territorial dispute between Beijing and Manila.

Some analysts say the string of high-level visits to Beijing by Southeast Asian officials follows a “tried and tested” pattern of Chinese diplomatic behavior.

“With Timor-Leste, China has spent a long time trying to cultivate relations,” said Ja Ian Chong, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at the National University of Singapore. “And with Vietnam, Beijing is eager not to see Hanoi and Manila draw closer together.”

In the case of Indonesia, Chong said China hopes to encourage Prabowo to “take a position that is more amenable to its interest.”

“Beijing realizes that there are some tensions [in the region] so it needs to get down to work,” he told VOA by phone.

While Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, some experts say these countries are still keen to ensure these differences won’t overshadow their overall relationships with Beijing.

China and Indonesia both “don’t want to dwell too much on territorial disputes in the South China Sea,” said Ngeow Chow-Bing, an associate professor in China studies at the University of Malaya.

He said most Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) countries, except the Philippines, believe that if they clearly express their concerns about territorial disputes to Beijing and ensure their interests are not violated, they can still try to collaborate with China on other issues.

“Most ASEAN countries and China are sticking to the normal conduct of relationships while searching for more opportunities to collaborate,” he told VOA.

At the same time, some ASEAN countries are building closer relations with the United States and its allies. Since last year, Vietnam has elevated bilateral ties with the U.S., Japan, and Australia.

In response, Beijing has said bloc confrontation goes against “the common aspiration of regional countries.”

Before his trip to China, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son met U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington, where they talked about issues including the peace and stability of the South China Sea.

Ngeow in Malaysia said many Southeast Asian countries are trying to play a balancing act between Beijing and democratic countries led by the U.S. “These countries all want to diversify their foreign relations but the expansion of relationships is not necessarily targeting China,” he told VOA.

However, Chong in Singapore said whether countries can “seek opportunities from all sides” remains questionable. “The intention will be to maximize benefits but there is the risk that these bets may not materialize unless they coordinate with each other,” he told VOA.

For its part, Beijing will focus on rolling out more projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) — its flagship infrastructure project — that benefit relations with Southeast Asian nations and align with its interests.

“China will focus a lot of the ‘small and beautiful projects’ from the BRI in Southeast Asia, especially in terms of digital infrastructure,” Chong told VOA.

A new survey released by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute shows that when asked whether their country should align itself with the United States or China, 50.5% out of 1,994 respondents across 10 ASEAN countries chose China while 49.5% preferred the U.S.

Still, territorial disputes with the Philippines and other nations are likely to persist, and some observers say China may try to “score some rhetorical points” on the issue during its meetings with foreign ministers from the three Southeast Asian countries.

“China has done similar things in 2016, when it gathered representatives of Brunei, Cambodia, and Laos to issue an agreement, saying that territorial dispute in the South China Sea shouldn’t affect relations between China and ASEAN,” said Hunter Marston, an adjunct research fellow at La Trobe University in Australia.

While it remains unclear how China may address the South China Sea disputes, Marston said initiating a diplomatic charm offensive “certainly helps.”
…

…

seoul, south korea — North Korea fired a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, the South Korean military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said Tuesday.

The launch comes less than two weeks after Pyongyang’s state media said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had overseen a successful test of a solid-fuel engine for a “new-type intermediate-range hypersonic missile.”

Japan also said it “appeared” North Korea had fired the missile, Kyodo news agency reported, adding that the country’s coast guard believed the missile had fallen.

Tuesday’s launch is the third ballistic missile test so far this year, after the solid fuel one overseen by Kim in March, and another tipped with a maneuverable hypersonic warhead in January.

The North claimed last year it had successfully tested its first solid-fuel ICBM — the largest, longest-range category of ballistic missile — hailing it as a key breakthrough for the country’s nuclear counterattack capabilities.

Solid-fuel missiles do not need to be fueled before launch, making them harder to find and destroy, as well as quicker to use.

So far this year, the nuclear-armed North has declared South Korea its “principal enemy,” jettisoned agencies dedicated to reunification and outreach, and threatened war over “even 0.001 mm” of territorial infringement.
…

Bangkok, Thailand — The Thai Senate will debate a bill Tuesday to legalize same-sex marriage, as the kingdom moves towards becoming the first Southeast Asian country to recognize marriage equality. 

Thailand has long enjoyed an international reputation for tolerance of the LGBTQ community, but activists have struggled for decades against conservative attitudes and values. 

The lower house easily approved the law last week and the legislation now moves to the country’s unelected Senate, which is stacked with conservative appointees named by the last junta. 

Senators will discuss the bill, which changes references to “men,” “women,” “husbands” and “wives” in the marriage law to gender-neutral terms and will hold a first vote before passing it to a committee for further consideration. 

The Senate cannot reject the legislation, but it can send it back to the House of Representatives for further debate for 180 days. 

It will come back for two more Senate votes, with the next probably no earlier than July. 

Paulie Nataya Paomephan, who won Miss Trans Thailand in 2023, said until recently she had never dreamed that transgender people would be able to legally marry in Thailand. 

“I think it is because politicians have to adapt themselves to the changing world,” she told AFP, adding that she and her boyfriend of three years planned to marry if the law passed.  

‘Proud of our pride’

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin said he was “proud of our pride” after the lower house voted to approve the bill in a 399-10 landslide. 

“The passing (of this law) in the parliament today is a proud moment for Thai society who will walk together towards social equality and respect differences,” he wrote on social media platform X. 

Across Asia, only Taiwan and Nepal recognize same-sex marriage. Last year, India’s highest court deferred the decision to parliament, and Hong Kong’s top court stopped just short of granting full marriage rights. 

LGBTQ activists celebrated last Wednesday’s vote as a significant milestone on the road to equality. 

Inside parliament, a small burst of cheers and clapping accompanied the final vote, with one representative waving a rainbow flag. 

The prime minister has been vocal in his support for the LGBTQ community, making the marriage equality policy a signature issue and telling reporters last year that the change would strengthen family structures. 

Opinion polls reported by local media show the law has overwhelming support among Thais. 

While Thailand has a reputation for tolerance, much of the Buddhist-majority country remains conservative, and LGBTQ people, while highly visible, still face barriers and discrimination. 

Activists have been pushing for same-sex marriage rights for more than a decade, but in a kingdom where politics is regularly upended by coups and mass street protests, the advocacy did not get far. 

Activist Ann Waaddao Chumaporn said she knew of dozens of LGBTQ couples ready to tie the knot once the law is passed, which she hoped would happen this year. 

“Once the law is enforced, yes of course, it will change Thai society,” she told AFP.  

“It will inspire other fights for other equalities.” 
…

new delhi — The world’s largest democratic election could also be one of its most consequential.

With a population of over 1.4 billion people and close to 970 million voters, India’s general election pits Prime Minister Narendra Modi, an avowed Hindu nationalist, against a broad alliance of opposition parties that are struggling to play catch up.

The 73-year-old Modi first swept to power in 2014 on promises of economic development, presenting himself as an outsider cracking down on corruption. Since then, he has fused religion with politics in a formula that has attracted wide support from the country’s majority Hindu population.

India under Modi is a rising global power, but his rule has also been marked by rising unemployment, attacks by Hindu nationalists against minorities, particularly Muslims, and a shrinking space for dissent and free media.

How does the election work?

The six-week-long general election starts on April 19 and results will be announced on June 4. The voters, who comprise over 10% of the world’s population, will elect 543 members for the lower house of Parliament for a five-year term.

The polls will be held in seven phases and ballots cast at more than a million polling stations. Each phase will last a single day with several constituencies across multiple states voting that day. The staggered polling allows the government to deploy tens of thousands of troops to prevent violence and transport election officials and voting machines.

India has a first-past-the-post multiparty electoral system in which the candidate who receives the most votes wins. To secure a majority, a party or coalition must breach the mark of 272 seats.

While voters in the United States and elsewhere use paper ballots, India uses electronic voting machines.

Who is running?

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party and his main challenger, Rahul Gandhi of the Indian National Congress, represent Parliament’s two largest factions. Several other important regional parties are part of an opposition bloc.

Opposition parties, which have been previously fractured, have united under a front called INDIA, or Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, to deny Modi a third straight election victory.

The alliance has fielded a single primary candidate in most constituencies. But it has been roiled by ideological differences and personality clashes — and has not yet decided on its candidate for prime minister.

Most surveys suggest Modi is likely to win comfortably, especially after he opened a Hindu temple in northern Ayodhya city in January, which fulfilled his party’s long-held Hindu nationalist pledge.

Another victory would cement Modi as one of the country’s most popular and important leaders. It would follow a thumping win in 2019, when the BJP clinched an absolute majority by sweeping 303 parliamentary seats.

The Congress party managed only 52 seats.

What are the big issues?

For decades, India has clung doggedly to its democratic convictions, largely due to free elections, an independent judiciary, a thriving media, strong opposition and peaceful transition of power. Some of these credentials have seen a slow erosion under Modi’s 10-year rule, with the polls seen as a test for the country’s democratic values.

Many watchdogs have now categorized India as a “hybrid regime” that is neither a full democracy nor a full autocracy.

The polls will also test the limits of Modi, a populist leader whose rise has seen increasing attacks against religious minorities, mostly Muslims. Critics accuse him of using a Hindu-first platform, endangering the country’s secular roots.

Under Modi, the media, once viewed as vibrant and largely independent, have become more pliant and critical voices muzzled. Courts have largely bent to Modi’s will and given favorable verdicts in crucial cases.

Centralization of executive power has strained India’s federalism. And federal agencies have bogged down top opposition leaders in corruption cases, which they deny.

Another key issue is India’s large economy, which is among the fastest growing in the world. It has helped India emerge as a global power and a counterweight to China. But even as India’s growth soars by some measures, the Modi government has struggled to generate enough jobs for young Indians, and instead has relied on welfare programs like free food and housing to woo voters.

The U.N.’s latest Asia-Pacific Human Development Report lists India among the top countries with high income and wealth inequality.
…

islamabad, pakistan — Global eradication efforts have “cornered” polio in a “few pockets” of Pakistan and Afghanistan, the last two countries where the virus continues to paralyze children.

Experts hailed the progress being made in tackling the “outbreak-prone” disease during a virtual briefing last week to mark a decade since India was declared polio-free in March 2014.

“We have Pakistan and Afghanistan [where polio is] still endemic, but the virus is cornered in very few pockets in very few districts of these two countries,” said Dr. Ananda Bandyopadhyay, deputy director of polio technology, research and analytics at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

“The virus is gasping in these last corridors,” Bandyopadhyay said.

Pakistan has reported two wild poliovirus cases this year, while the number stood at six in 2023. Afghanistan has yet to detect a polio case this year and recorded six cases last year.

Experts credited continued efforts to vaccinate populations with pushing polio to the verge of extinction.

Wild poliovirus affects young children and can paralyze them in severe cases or can be deadly in certain instances. The paralytic disease is the only currently designated public health emergency of international concern.

Hamid Jafari, director of polio eradication for the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, told the event that until 2020, about 13 families of wild poliovirus had spread across the neighboring countries.

Since then, only two families have survived, and they remain endemic to Pakistan “in a very small geographic area” in southern parts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa border province and in eastern Afghanistan, he said.

While the “historic reservoirs” have been cleared of the virus in Pakistan and Afghanistan, transmission is now surviving in “exceptionally hard-to-reach” populations, making it difficult for polio teams to inoculate children there, he said.

Jafari said “militancy and extensive population movement” across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and keeping track of those populations, were the kinds of “last-mile challenges that we have.”

“The genetic cluster that seems to be on its way out and getting eliminated is in the heart of the area of militancy in Pakistan,” he said.

Jafari noted that India’s polio program did not face the same militancy challenge that Afghanistan’s did until the Taliban takeover in August 2021, and that it remains a significant problem in Pakistan in the last stages of eradicating the virus.

Bandyopadhyay said successes against the poliovirus in both countries raise hope it is on the verge of extinction there.

He said clinicians “observed similar trends” even in the countries that “saw polio’s disappearing act.”

“Initially, we would have multiple families or lineages of the virus … and then you saw that disappearing act,” he said.

Jafari said that lessons learned in India had been applied to Nigeria, which was declared polio-free in June 2020. He added that many of “these practices were instilled in the program” in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

WHO has said that cases caused by wild poliovirus have dropped by more than 99% since 1988, from an estimated 350,000 in more than 125 endemic countries to just two endemic countries as of October 2023.

It attributed the decline to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, led by the WHO, the U.N. Children’s Fund, Rotary International, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Jay Wenger, director of the polio program at the Gates Foundation, said that even though Afghanistan and Pakistan had reported a handful of cases, global efforts against the virus must continue.

“As we get to the end of the [polio program], it’s critical to finish. We usually say if there is polio anywhere, it’s a threat to everywhere,” he said.
…

…

ISLAMABAD — Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has promised the “best possible” security for Chinese nationals working in his country as Islamabad repatriated the remains Monday of five workers from China, killed last week in an attack.

On March 26, five Chinese workers and their Pakistani driver died when a suicide bomber rammed an explosive-laden car into their bus.

The workers were traveling to the Chinese-funded Dasu hydropower project in the remote region of Kohistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province when they came under attack in Bisham, about 4-hours north of the capital Islamabad.

In a visit to Dasu, Monday, with Jiang Zaidong, Beijing’s ambassador to Islamabad, Sharif met the Chinese workers at the hydropower project and assured them of “fool-proof” security arrangements.

“I will not rest until we have put in place the best possible security measures for your security. Not only in Dasu, [but] all over Pakistan,” Sharif said, adding that, this was his promise to the people of China, and to the Chinese leadership including President Xi Jinping.

After the attack last Tuesday, Pakistan quickly put together a joint investigation team to probe the incident as well as an inquiry committee to examine security measures for Chinese citizens working in the country.

Sharif assured the Chinese nationals that his government “will not waste any time to act on the recommendations of the inquiry committee.”

Since 2015 a special military unit that includes thousands of personnel as well local police contingents have been providing security for Chinese nationals working on the nearly $60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Popularly known as CPEC, the mega-project is part of Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative.

A team of Chinese investigators is working with Pakistani officials to ascertain the facts surrounding last week’s deadly attack.

Speaking at a regular news briefing Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin reiterated Beijing’s demand to find and punish the perpetrators of the attack.

“China firmly supports Pakistan in looking into what happened with utmost resolve and effort, bringing the perpetrators and whoever’s behind the attack to justice,” Wang said.

The spokesperson added that Beijing supports Pakistan in “doing everything possible to protect the safety and security of Chinese personnel, projects, and institutions in Pakistan.”

Referring to those responsible for the attack, Sharif promised workers at Dasu that his government will “make sure that exemplary punishment is given to them.”

Muhammad Imran, the district police officer of Shangla which includes Bisham — the site of last Tuesday’s attack — told VOA that security has increased on the Karakoram Highway.

“We are trying our best to give robust security to [the] Chinese as well as to [foreign] tourists who travel this route frequently,” Imran said. However, he refused to say how many additional personnel had been called to provide enhanced security.

Remains repatriated

Earlier on Monday, a Pakistani military plane carrying the bodies of the five Chinese victims of the attack arrived in the city of Wuhan, China. Chaudhry Salik Hussain, minister for overseas Pakistanis and human development, accompanied the remains.

Before the plane departed, Pakistan’s President Asif Zardari, and army chief Gen. Asim Munir, along with Sharif took part in a wreath-laying ceremony at a military air base near the capital.

So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Banned Pakistani militant group Tehreek-e-Taliban that was behind several recent deadly attacks in Pakistan denied involvement.

In July 2021, 13 people including nine Chinese nationals were killed in a suicide attack on their convoy as they travelled to Dasu – Pakistan’s largest hydroelectric project.

In 2022, an anti-terrorism court in Pakistan handed the death penalty to two men accused of facilitating the deadly attack.
…

…

Islamabad — A Pakistani appeals court on Monday suspended a 14-year prison sentence for former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his wife in a corruption case, but the couple won’t be released because they are already serving prison terms in other cases, officials said.

However, the court order was a legal victory for Khan, who was ousted from power in a no-confidence vote in April 2022. Khan now has more than 170 legal cases hanging over him.

The Islamabad High Court suspended the sentence for Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, after hearing an appeal from their lawyer, according to Zulfiqar Bukhari, the spokesperson for Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party.

The court ordered the release of the couple on bail but under the country’s laws Khan and his wife won’t be freed because Bibi is serving a prison term in another case and Khan has been convicted and sentenced in multiple cases.

The latest development came about two months after Khan and his wife were found guilty of retaining and selling state gifts in violation of government rules when he was in power.

The couple’s lawyer, Ali Zafar, said during Monday’s court hearing that Khan and his wife did not get the right of a fair trial. He claimed that Khan was being politically victimized and the couple was not involved in any wrongdoing.

The court will resume hearing the case later this month.

Khan remains popular in the country despite his conviction in multiple cases.

Khan’s PTI party made a strong showing in the Feb. 8 parliamentary elections but did not win a majority of the seats in the National Assembly, or lower house of the parliament, though PTI says the vote was rigged.
…

washington — Vietnam is crying foul over a Chinese bid to redefine its coastal waters in the Gulf of Tonkin, a waterway at the northern end of the South China Sea lying between China’s Hainan Island and Vietnam.

Beijing’s delineation of a new baseline in the gulf was declared earlier this month. Under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a country’s baseline is essentially its shoreline at low tide and is used to determine the extent of coastal waters and exclusive economic zones.

The convention makes exceptions in the case of close-in coastal islands, inlets and other unusual features, in which case a straight-line baseline may be applied. But experts say China has taken this provision to extremes by drawing a series of straight lines between islands far off its coast.

While the immediate implications of China’s latest sea grab are limited, the experts say it could have implications for freedom of navigation in the region, and in an extreme case, Beijing could seek to apply the principle to declare the Taiwan Strait as Chinese coastal waters.

It also follows a pattern of aggressive Chinese behavior in the South China Sea, where since 2013 the country has been building artificial islands in waters claimed by Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

China says its delineation of the baseline in the Gulf of Tonkin, known as the Beibu Gulf in China, “strictly complies with domestic laws, international laws and bilateral agreements” and “will not impact Vietnam’s interests or those of any other nation,” according to a March 4 statement by the Chinese Foreign Ministry quoted by the official Global Times.

Hanoi disputes this assertion. When asked about the baseline more than a week later, its Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Pham Thu Hang, stressed that “coastal countries need to abide by the UNCLOS 1982 when determining the baseline for measuring their territorial waters” and urged Beijing to honor a previously negotiated bilateral demarcation agreement in the gulf. UNCLOS was ratified in 1982.

Free of disputes

Unlike other parts of the South China Sea, the Gulf of Tonkin has been largely free of disputes since Hanoi and Beijing signed the delineation agreement in 2000 that went into effect four years later.

The Vietnamese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman declined to comment on whether China’s new baseline could jeopardize that agreement, according to Reuters.

Hoang Viet, a lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City’s University of Law who follows regional maritime issues closely, told VOA Vietnamese over the phone, “The gulf was already demarcated. China cannot claim more than what it agreed on in the deal, no matter what baseline it draws in the gulf.”

He stressed that “it’s almost impossible” for Beijing to amend the agreement already ratified by the two nations.

Raymond Powell, a team leader at Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, told VOA Vietnamese in an email that China’s baseline delineation varies from the standard UNCLOS practice, which says the baseline “must not depart to any appreciable extent from the general direction of the coast.”

“China has drawn a straight baseline from its coast to a couple of offshore islands to illegally expand its territorial sea,” Powell said. “UNCLOS does not allow drawing straight baselines except in extreme circumstances, such as the complex fjords of Norway. This is not one of those special cases.”

According to UNCLOS, any waters inside the baseline are considered internal waters of a coastal state and unapproved passage of foreign vessels or aircraft is not allowed.

“The new baseline turns a significant area into China’s closed waters. Qiongzhou Strait [the strait between Hainan island and the Chinese mainland] is now wholly China’s internal waters,” said Viet. “It affects the freedom of navigation of foreign vessels.”

He added that China could cite this as a precedent to claim the Taiwan Strait as internal waters.

Powell predicted that Beijing’s new claim “may someday” draw a U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP), in which a warship will enter an unrecognized claim and either transit without notification or conduct military activity. The United States “challenges excessive maritime claims around the world regardless of the identity of the claimant,” according to the U.S. Navy press office.  

Most FONOPs in the region have been confined to the South China Sea to challenge Beijing’s territorial claims.
…

Islamabad — The Taliban government in Afghanistan confirmed Sunday that they had detained “a number of foreign citizens, including two Americans” for allegedly violating their laws. 

Zabihullah Mujahid, the chief Taliban spokesperson, told the state-run Afghan radio they had informed the United States about the detention of its citizens. He did not provide any additional details, nor did he reveal the nationalities of the other foreign detainees.

Relatives and U.S. officials have identified one of the Americans in custody as Ryan Corbett, while the identity of the second person was not disclosed.

This is the first time the Taliban has publicly acknowledged the detention of two American nationals. So far, they had only reported the arrest of Corbett.

He was taken into custody in August 2022, a year after the Islamist group regained power in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S.-led Western troops after nearly 20 years of war with the then-insurgent Taliban.

Corbett’s family has lately stepped-up calls for President Joe Biden’s administration to do more to secure his safe and early release.

According to CNN, Corbett was able to call his wife Anna and their three children last week for the fifth time since his detention.

“It was a disturbing call,” Anna Corbett told the U.S. media outlet Thursday. “It was hard to hear Ryan losing hope. He’s been held now almost 600 days and he had a change in his mindset about it,” she told the U.S. news network.

Anna said that Corbett’s physical health had been deteriorating, “and now that his mental health is going down, it’s just super scary for the kids and I.”

The U.S. State Department spokesperson said Thursday that it was working to secure the release of all American citizens “wrongfully detained” abroad.

Mathew Miller told reporters he “cannot imagine the pain” the families were “going through, and the grief that they’re suffering, and how difficult it must be knowing that their loved one is going through such a tragic hardship.”

He said that U.S. officials in meetings with Taliban representatives had “continually pressed” them to release all American detainees immediately and unconditionally.

“We have made clear to the Taliban that these detentions are a significant obstacle to positive engagement, and we will continue to do that. We are using every lever we can to try to bring Ryan and these other wrongfully detained Americans home from Afghanistan,” he added.  

Corbett and his family had lived in Afghanistan for years before being evacuated during the August 2021 Taliban takeover. He ran and supervised humanitarian projects for nongovernmental organizations, focusing on health and education.

Corbett returned to Afghanistan twice in 2022 and was detained by the Taliban on his second trip but has not been charged with any crimes, according to his family.

“The Biden administration has done little to secure Ryan’s release despite continued reports of his deteriorating health while held in deplorable conditions,” U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, said in a March 27 statement. 
…

New Delhi — At a massive rally held in the Indian capital, top leaders of an opposition alliance accused Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party of undermining democracy by intimidating and arresting political rivals.

The “Save Democracy” rally took place Sunday in New Delhi as India heads into a phased general election set to begin April 19.

It was held days after the arrest of a key opposition leader, the chief minister of Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, by the federal Enforcement Directorate on corruption charges over granting liquor licenses. Kejriwal is a staunch Modi critic.

Leaders of the INDIA alliance, which has been formed by about two dozen opposition parties, criticized Modi, saying he was decimating the opposition by using federal agencies to target its leaders with corruption probes and crippling their ability to campaign against the BJP.

“Opposition leaders are being intimidated and arrested — this is match-fixing,” the leader of the main opposition party, Rahul Gandhi, said.

“This is not an ordinary election. This election is to save the country, protect our constitution,” Gandhi told the huge crowd. He said if the BJP wins the election, “it will set the country on fire.”

The BJP has said it denies targeting opposition officials.

Before Kejriwal was detained earlier in March, another chief minister was arrested on corruption charges in January. Meanwhile, the Congress Party has accused the government of “tax terrorism,” saying its bank accounts have been frozen by the tax department, leaving it starved of funds to conduct its election campaign.

Opposition leaders also accused the Modi government of undermining democratic institutions.

“The country is headed toward autocracy. This one-man government is taking the country to ruin,” another opposition leader of the Shiv Sena party, Uddhav Thackeray, said.

Sunday’s rally was the first major show of solidarity by the INDIA alliance that was formed last year to jointly fight Modi, who is widely expected to win a third term. Many of the parties in the alliance are regional rivals and have struggled in recent months to come together on a common platform raising questions over their ability to counter the BJP.

Political analysts said the parties did put up a united front at Sunday’s rally. “The rally was fairly successful but it is it is very difficult to say what will be its response on the ground, and whether people will start looking at an alternative that is not driven by the Hindu nationalist ideology of BJP and not so centered around the personality of Modi,” political analyst Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay said.

On the same day as the opposition rally, Prime Minister Modi launched his party’s election campaign in Meerut city in Uttar Pradesh, a hugely consequential state that sends 80 lawmakers to parliament.

Accusing previous governments of corruption, he said his fight against graft will continue. “Modi will not be stopped. Action will be taken against every corrupt politician,” he said.

Modi said his government had lifted 250 million people out of poverty and he was fast tracking economic development in the country. “The 2024 election is not only for a new government but for making India a developed country,” he said.

Analysts say Modi has built his appeal on a platform of muscular Hindu nationalism and a raft of welfare programs such as federal funding for construction of toilets and homes for millions of poor people.

“Modi is the clear frontrunner, that is what all the surveys so far show. But at the same time, I will not call the election until the last vote is counted because Indian elections can throw up surprises,” according to Mukhopadhyay.
…

NEW DELHI — The Indian government said it was rescuing its citizens who were lured into employment in Cambodia and were being forced to participate in cyber fraud schemes.

The Indian Embassy in Cambodia is working with Cambodian authorities and has rescued and repatriated about 250 Indians, including 75 in the last three months, India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said in a statement Saturday.

Jaiswal was responding to Indian news reports that stated more than 5,000 Indians are trapped in Cambodia and being forced to carry out cyber frauds on people back home.

“We are also working with Cambodian authorities and with agencies in India to crack down on those responsible for these fraudulent schemes,” Jaiswal said.

The Indian government and its embassy in Cambodia have issued several advisories informing them about such scams, the spokesperson said.

The Cambodian Embassy in India did not respond immediately to a request for comment Sunday. 
…

Jakarta, indonesia — Roads turned into murky brown rivers, homes were swept away by strong currents and bodies were pulled from mud during deadly flash floods and landslides after torrential rains hit West Sumatra in early March, marking one of the latest deadly natural disasters in Indonesia. 

Government officials blamed the floods on heavy rainfall, but environmental groups have cited the disaster as the latest example of deforestation and environmental degradation intensifying the effects of severe weather across Indonesia. 

“This disaster occurred not only because of extreme weather factors, but because of the ecological crisis,” Indonesian environmental rights group Indonesian Forum for the Environment wrote in a statement. “If the environment continues to be ignored, then we will continue to reap ecological disasters.” 

A vast tropical archipelago stretching across the equator, Indonesia is home to the world’s third-largest rainforest, with a variety of endangered wildlife and plants, including orangutans, elephants, giant and blooming forest flowers. Some live nowhere else. 

For generations the forests have also provided livelihoods, food, and medicine while playing a central role in cultural practices for millions of Indigenous residents in Indonesia. 

Since 1950, more than 74 million hectares (285,715 square miles) of Indonesian rainforest — an area twice the size of Germany — have been logged, burned or degraded for development of palm oil, paper and rubber plantations, mining and other commodities according to Global Forest Watch. 

Indonesia is the biggest producer of palm oil, one of the largest exporters of coal and a top producer of pulp for paper. It also exports oil and gas, rubber, tin and other resources. And it also has the world’s largest reserves of nickel — a critical material for electric vehicles, solar panels and other goods needed for the green energy transition. 

Vulnerable to climate change

Indonesia has consistently ranked as one of the largest global emitters of plant-warming greenhouse gases, with its emissions stemming from the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation and peatland fires, according to the Global Carbon Project. 

It’s also highly vulnerable to climate change impacts, including extreme events such as floods and droughts, long-term changes from sea level rise, shifts in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures, according to the World Bank. In recent decades, the country has already seen the effects of climate change: More intense rains, landslides and floods during rainy season, and more fires during a longer dry season. 

But forests can help play a vital role in reducing the impact of some extreme weather events, said Aida Greenbury, a sustainability expert focusing on Indonesia. 

Flooding can be slowed by trees and vegetation soaking up rainwater and reducing erosion. In dry season, forests release moisture that helps mitigate the effects of droughts, including fires. 

But when forests diminish, those benefits do as well. 

A 2017 study reported that forest conversion and deforestation expose bare soil to rainfall, causing soil erosion. Frequent harvesting activities — such as done on palm oil plantations — and the removal of ground vegetation leads to further soil compaction, causing rain to run off the surface instead of entering groundwater reservoirs. Downstream erosion also increases sediment in rivers, making rivers shallower and increasing flood risks, according to the research. 

After the deadly floods in Sumatra in early March, West Sumatra Governor Mahyeldi Ansharullah said there were strong indications of illegal logging around locations affected by floods and landslides. That, coupled with extreme rainfall, inadequate drainage systems and improper housing development contributed to the disaster, he said. 

Experts and environmental activists have pointed to deforestation worsening disasters in other regions of Indonesia as well: In 2021, environmental activists partially blamed deadly floods in Kalimantan on environmental degradation caused by large-scale mining and palm oil operations. In Papua, deforestation was partially blamed for floods and landslides that killed more than 100 people in 2019. 

There have been some signs of change: In 2018 Indonesian President Joko Widodo put a three-year freeze on new permits for palm oil plantations. And the rate of deforestation slowed between 2021-2022, according to government data. 

But experts warn that it’s unlikely deforestation in Indonesia will stop anytime soon as the government continues to move forward with new mining and infrastructure projects such as new nickel smelters and cement factories. 

“A lot of land use and land-based investment permits have already been given to businesses, and a lot of these areas are already prone to disasters,” said Arie Rompas, an Indonesia-based forestry expert at Greenpeace. 

President-elect Prabowo Subianto, who is scheduled to take office in October, has promised to continue Widodo’s policy of development, including large-scale food estates, mining and other infrastructure development that are all linked to deforestation. 

Watchdogs say protections weakening

Environmental watchdogs also warn that environmental protections in Indonesia are weakening, including the passing of the controversial Omnibus Law, which eliminated an article of the Forestry Law regarding the minimum area of forest that must be maintained at development projects. 

“The removal of that article makes us very worried (about deforestation) for the years to come,” said Rompas. 

While experts and activists recognize that development is essential for Indonesia’s economy to continue to go, they argue that it should be done in a way that considers the environment and incorporates better land planning. 

“We can’t continue down the same path we’ve been on,” said sustainability expert Greenbury. “We need to make sure that the soil, the land in the forest doesn’t become extinct.” 
…

PESHAWAR, Pakistan — Heavy rains killed eight people, mostly children, and injured 12 in Pakistan’s northwest, an official said Saturday. 

Downpours in different districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province caused rooms to collapse, crushing the people inside, according to Anwar Shahzad, a spokesperson for the local disaster management authority. 

Shahzad said that three of the dead were siblings aged between 3 and 7 years old, from the same family. The casualties occurred in the past 24 hours, he added. 

This year, Pakistan has experienced a delay in winter rains, which started in February instead of November. Monsoon and winter rains cause damage in Pakistan every year. 

Earlier this month, about 30 people died in rain-related incidents in the northwest. 

Across the border in Afghanistan, heavy rainfall on March 29 and 30 destroyed more than 1,500 acres of agricultural land, causing severe damage to hundreds of homes and critical infrastructure such as bridges and roads in seven provinces, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Saturday. 

The provinces most affected are northern Faryab, eastern Nangarhar, and central Daikundi. 

It’s the third time that the northern region has experienced flooding in less than a month, with seven people killed and 384 families affected by heavy rains, the U.N. agency said. 
…

tokyo — Japanese government health officials raided a factory Saturday producing health supplements that they say have killed at least five people and hospitalized more than 100 others. 

About a dozen people wearing dark suits solemnly walked into the Osaka plant of Kobayashi Pharmaceutical Co. in the raid shown widely on Japanese TV news, including public broadcaster NHK. 

The company says little is known about the exact cause of the sicknesses, which include kidney failure. An investigation into the products is underway in cooperation with government health authorities. 

The supplements all used “benikoji,” a kind of red mold. Kobayashi Pharmaceuticals’ pink pills called Benikoji Choleste Help were billed as helping lower cholesterol levels. 

Kobayashi Pharmaceuticals, based in the western Japanese city of Osaka, said about 1 million packages were sold over the past three fiscal years. It also sold benikoji to other manufacturers, and some products have been exported. The supplements could be bought at drug stores without a prescription from a doctor. 

Reports of health problems surfaced in 2023, although benikoji has been used in products for years. 

Kobayashi Pharmaceuticals President Akihiro Kobayashi has apologized for not having acted sooner. The recall came March 22, two months after the company had received official medical reports about the problem. 

On Friday, the company said five people had died and 114 people were being treated in hospitals after taking the products. Japan’s health ministry says the supplements are responsible for the deaths and illnesses and warned that the number of those affected could grow. 

Some analysts blame the recent deregulation initiatives, which simplified and sped up approval for health products to spur economic growth. But deaths from a mass-produced item is rare in Japan, as government checks over consumer products are relatively stringent. 

The government has ordered a review of the approval system in response to supplement-related illnesses. A report is due in May.  
…

NEW DELHI — The Indian navy said it had freed the 23-strong crew of an Iranian fishing vessel that was seized by armed pirates off Somalia. 

The Al-Kambar 786 was southwest of the Yemeni island of Socotra, in the Arabian Sea, on March 28 when it was reported to have been boarded by nine pirates, according to a naval statement Friday. 

The vessel was intercepted by the navy’s INS Sumedha and INS Trishul, leading to “over 12 hours of intense coercive tactical measures” forcing the pirates to surrender, the statement said. 

The nine pirates are being brought to India under the domestic law against piracy on the high seas, the navy said in a separate statement Saturday. 

The fishing vessel’s crew of 23 Pakistani nationals were safe and received medical checks before being cleared to continue with fishing activities, the statement said. 

Piracy incidents east of the Red Sea have resurfaced for the first time in nearly a decade. 

Taking advantage of Western forces’ focus on protecting shipping from attacks in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi militants, pirates have made or attempted more than 20 hijackings since November, driving up insurance and security costs and adding to a crisis for global shipping companies. 
…

ISLAMABAD — A roadside bomb explosion in Pakistan’s southwestern Baluchistan province Saturday killed at least one person and injured 14 others.

Officials said the attack targeted surveyors from a major, private gas-producing company and Pakistani security forces escorting them in the Harnai district, 170 kilometers (106 miles) northeast of the provincial capital of Quetta.

Javed Domki, the district deputy commissioner, confirmed the casualties to VOA by phone. He said the injured were airlifted to a Quetta military hospital, where some of them were in “critical condition.”

Several personnel of Pakistan’s paramilitary Frontier Corps force were among the victims, he said.

There were no immediate claims of responsibility for the bombing in turbulent Baluchistan, which is rich in natural resources.

The Pakistani province has experienced a surge in insurgent attacks in recent days. The so-called Baluch Liberation Army, an outlawed group, has claimed credit for plotting much of the violence.

Last week, ethnic Baluch insurgents assaulted a key Pakistan naval air base and a government complex in the Turbat and Gwadar districts, respectively. The ensuing clashes killed several security personnel and a dozen insurgents in both attacks.

Gwadar is home to a China-run, deep-water Arabian Sea port, central to a multibillion-dollar bilateral collaboration under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC, an extension of Beijing’s global Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure program.

Thousands of Chinese engineers and laborers are associated with CPEC and other Chinese-funded projects in Pakistan.

On Tuesday, a suicide car bombing in a northwestern mountain Pakistan region killed five Chinese engineers and their local driver.

No group claimed responsibility for the attack, but Pakistani officials suspect militants linked to an Afghanistan-based terrorist group, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, was behind it.

The TTP distanced itself from the bombing, saying its violence campaign targets only Pakistani security forces.
…

Washington — There has been a wave of attacks across Pakistan in recent weeks by militant groups operating in the region that have widely varying objectives.

This week, a suicide attacker killed five Chinese nationals and their Pakistani driver in a convoy in Pakistan’s northwest. Pakistani Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP, is the usual suspect for such attacks in the northwest, but in a statement on Wednesday, it denied being behind targeting the Chinese workers.

Earlier, two suicide attacks in Pakistan’s restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province killed nine Pakistani troops in the third week of March.

In the southwest, militants carried out a brazen attack on Pakistan’s second-largest naval airbase and a port complex near the Arabian Sea in the volatile Balochistan province. The Pakistan army said two soldiers and 14 militants were killed in the attacks. Designated terrorist group Baloch Liberation Army, or BLA, accepted the responsibility.

The attacks by suspected regional militant groups came as the most active terrorist group in the region, Islamic State-Khorasan, was blamed by Washington for the attack in Moscow a week ago that killed more than 140 concert-goers.

“The recent surge in attacks is deeply concerning because it represents an escalation in militant tactics,” said Elizabeth Threlkeld, senior fellow and director for South Asian affairs at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

Who are the militant groups now active in the region, and what are their goals?

Islamic State-Khorasan, or IS-K, is leading the current wave of terror across the region.

The group was formed in 2015 by disgruntled Pakistani Taliban members. It considers itself a branch of the larger Islamic State, or IS, in what it calls the Khorasan, a reference to the historic region comprising parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Iran.

IS-K, like its parent organization IS, is a Sunni organization. IS-K claims it is working to enforce Salafi sharia throughout its region of influence. The group opposes Shia Islam, and fighters have taken credit for hundreds of deaths of Shiites in Pakistan and Afghanistan in recent years.

A U.N. report last year in June said IS-K’s family members and fighters in the region number between 4,000 and 6,000.

“IS-K is attracting disgruntled militants from Taliban and members of the Tajikistan-based radical group Jama’at Ansarullah, Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan [IMU], East Turkistan Islamic Movement [ETIM] and those inspired by the Salafi ideology,” said Syed Fakhar Kakakhel, a Pashtun journalist in Pakistan who covers militancy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

IS-K has not claimed responsibility for the attack in Moscow, but its statement in Pashto last Monday glorified the attackers. The 30-page statement was a fierce polemic against the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan, scolding them for their relations with the U.S., Russia, China and other countries.

IS-K has claimed responsibility, though, for the two suicide attacks, one each in Afghanistan’s Kandahar city on March 21, and the suicide bombings on January 3 at the memorial services for the Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in Kerman city, Iran. More than 100 people were killed in the latter attack. Soleimani was killed in a U.S. drone attack in Iraq in 2020.

Russian, Iranian and Afghan Taliban identified the attackers of Moscow, Kerman and Kandahar as nationals of Tajikistan.

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan: umbrella syndicate of militants

Analysts say TTP has gotten smarter in its tactics, techniques, and weapons since the withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO forces from Afghanistan in August 2021. A U.N. report early this year said al-Qaida is conducting suicide bomber training to support TTP, a U.S.-designated terrorist group.

Kakakhel said TTP’s new strategy includes delegating powers to its proxies, adding sophisticated weapons such as M24 sniper rifles and M16A4 rifles with thermal scopes and night vision, along with targeted ambushes to its playbook.

“We had reported suicide attacks where a candidate came to press the button and blew himself off. But now, they fight for the last breath inflicting maximum casualties to forces and then pressing the button at the right time,” Kakakhel said.

“I assess the TTP’s threat to be more severe, especially as the TTP has sanctuary in Afghanistan and support of the Taliban. TTP also has a bigger fighting force,” said Asfandyar Mir, senior expert for South Asia with a focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, at the Washington-based U.S. Institute for Peace.

The militants carried out 97 attacks in February this year and about 789 attacks last year in Pakistan alone, a record high since 2018, according to Islamabad-based Center for Research and Security Studies. Pakistani officials attribute a higher percentage of the attacks to the TTP or its proxies.

The Pakistan military and civilian government representatives engaged the TTP leadership in talks in 2021, but they couldn’t reach a deal. The government officials later said TTP wanted power in regions close to Afghanistan to impose their Sharia on the style of Afghan Taliban.

“Pakistani security forces should be commended for holding off attacks on Gwadar and Turbat naval station, but the broader challenge remains that the military and police are taking heavy losses across the western border region,” Elizabeth Threlkeld told VOA.

She said Pakistan’s leaders badly miscalculated in assuming a Taliban government in Kabul would support Pakistan’s interests. “As Pakistan seeks a way out of this difficult diplomatic and security challenge, it would benefit from conducting a thorough review of the analysis and decision-making that drove its Afghan policy for the past two decades to draw lessons going forward,” she said.

Balochistan: home for militant separatist groups

Baloch separatist groups, several of which are designated as terrorist groups by Britain and the United States, are largely secular but for nearly 20 years have been embroiled in an active insurgency against Pakistani troops. The feud started after the Pakistani army killed a prominent Baloch leader and former chief minister Balochistan Akbar Bugti in 2006.

As many as five known Baloch separatist groups are coordinating their attacks against Chinese-funded projects and Pakistani forces in the restive province under the banner of the “Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar,” a Baloch name translated as Baloch National Freedom Movement.

The most lethal faction is the Majeed Brigade, a sub-group of Baloch Liberation Army. The Majeed Brigade has accepted responsibilities for some of the lethal attacks on the Chinese nationals and Pakistani troops. Other Baloch separatist groups engaged in insurgency include Baloch Republican Army, Baloch Republican Guards, Baloch Liberation Front and Bashirzeb Baloch Group.

Balochistan-based analyst Syed Ali Shah said Baloch militants are different from Islamic militants: “In Balochistan, this is a political insurgency. They are not fighting for the implementation of Sharia, rather, [they fight] for greater control over Baloch coast and resources.”

Pakistani media has reported 11 major attacks on Chinese nationals and projects in Balochistan and other parts of the country since 2018. Most of these attacks were claimed by Baloch separatist groups.

Some analysts consider the Islamist militants a bigger threat for regional security because of their transnational presence and higher number of fighters. “As for the Baloch militants, they have been trying to target Chinese interests for several years now and are in no mood to relent,” said senior expert Mir.

He said he thinks Pakistan will probably continue to exert pressure on the Afghan Taliban to reduce the threat of both TTP and Baloch militants.
…

BUON MA THUOT, Vietnam — Le Van Tam is no stranger to how the vagaries of global trade can determine the fortunes of small coffee farmers like him. 

He first planted coffee in a patch of land outside Buon Ma Thuot city in Vietnam’s Central Highland region in 1995. For years, his focus was on quantity, not quality. Tam used ample amounts of fertilizer and pesticides to boost his yields, and global prices determined how well he did. 

Then, in 2019, he teamed up with Le Dinh Tu of Aeroco Coffee, an organic exporter to Europe and the U.S., and adopted more sustainable methods, turning his coffee field into a a sun-dappled forest. The coffee grows side by side with tamarind trees that add nitrogen to the soil and provide support for black pepper vines. Grass helps keep the soil moist, and the mix of plants discourages pest outbreaks. The pepper also adds to Tam’s income. 

“The output hasn’t increased, but the product’s value has,” he said. 

In the 1990s, Tam was among thousands of Vietnamese farmers who planted more than a million hectares of coffee, mostly robusta, to take advantage of high global prices. By 2000, Vietnam had become the second-largest producer of coffee, which provides a tenth of its export income. 

Vietnam is hoping that farmers like Tam will benefit from a potential reordering of how coffee is traded due to more stringent European laws to stop deforestation. 

The European Deforestation Regulation or EUDR will outlaw sales of products like coffee beginning December 30, 2024, if companies can’t prove they are not linked with deforestation. The new rules’ scope is wide: They will apply to cocoa, coffee, soy, palm oil, wood, rubber and cattle. To sell those products in Europe, big companies will have to show they come from land where forests haven’t been cut since 2020. Smaller companies have until July 2025 to do so. 

Deforestation is the second-biggest source of carbon emissions after fossil fuels. Europe ranked second behind China in the amount of deforestation caused by its imports in 2017, according to a 2021 World Wildlife Fund report. If implemented well, the EUDR could help reduce this, especially if the more stringent standards for tracing where products come from become the “new normal,” Helen Bellfield, a policy director at Global Canopy, told The Associated Press in an interview. 

It’s not fail-safe. Companies can just sell products that don’t meet the new requirements elsewhere, without reducing deforestation. Thousands of small farmers unable to provide the potentially expensive data could be left out. Much depends on how countries and companies react to the new laws, Bellfield said. Countries must help smaller farmers by building national systems that ensure their exports are traceable. Otherwise, companies may just buy from very large farms that can prove they have complied. 

Already, orders for Ethiopian-grown coffee have fallen. And Peru lacks the capacity to provide information needed for coffee and cocoa grown in the Peruvian Amazon. 

This comes atop other challenges, which in Vietnam include worsening droughts and receding groundwater levels. 

“There will be winners and losers,” she said. 

Vietnam can’t afford to lose — Europe is the largest market for its coffee, constituting 40% of its coffee exports. Six weeks after the EUDR was approved, Vietnam’s agriculture ministry started working to prepare coffee growing-provinces for the shift. It has since rolled out a national plan that includes a database of where crops are grown and mechanisms to make this information traceable. 

The Southeast Asian nation has long promoted more sustainable farming methods, viewing laws like the EUDR as an “an inevitable change,” according to an August 2023 agriculture ministry communique. The EUDR could help accelerate such a transformation, according to Agriculture Minister Le Minh Hoang. 

Tam and Tu, his export partner, were quick to adapt. 

Even if the costs are higher, Tu said, they can get better prices for their high-quality coffee. 

“We must choose the highest quality. Otherwise, we will always be laborers,” Tu said, while sipping a cup of his favorite coffee at his company’s coffee-processing factory adjoining Tam’s farm. This is where trucks laden with red coffee cherries, both robusta and arabica, arrive from other farms, where the pulp of the fruit is removed and beans of coffee are laid out on tables to dry in the sun. 

Tu already has certificates from international agencies for sustainability that will enable him to deal with the EUDR. Such certificates typically address the issue of deforestation, although some tweaks may be needed, said David Hadley, program director for regulatory impacts at the nonprofit group Preferred by Nature in Costa Rica. 

Ensuring that Vietnam’s roughly half a million small farmers, who produce about 85% of its coffee, are able to collect and provide data showing their farms did not cause deforestation remains a challenge. Some may struggle to use smartphones to collect geolocation coordinates. Small exporters need to set up systems to prevent other uncertified products from being mixed with coffee that meets EUDR requirements, said Loan Le of International Economics Consulting. 

Farmers also will need documents proving they have complied with national laws for land use, environmental protection and labor, Le said. Moreover, coffee’s long value chain — from producing beans to collecting them and processing them — requires digital systems to ensure records are error-free. 

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, is better placed, said Bellfield of Global Canopy, since its coffee grows on plantations that far are away from forests and it has a relatively well-organized supply chain. Also, Brazilian-grown coffee is most likely to meet the EUDR requirements, according to a 2024 Brazilian study, because much of it is exported to the EU, Brazil has fewer small farmers, and about a third of its coffee-growing acreage already has some kind of sustainability certification. 

The EUDR has acknowledged concerns for less well prepared suppliers by giving them more time and said the European government will work with impacted countries to “enable the transition” while “paying particular attention” to the needs of small holders and Indigenous communities. A review in 2028 will also look at impacts on smallholders. 

“Despite this we still anticipate it being costly and difficult for small holder farming communities,” she said. 

In Peru, collecting information about hundreds of thousands of small farmers is difficult given the country’s weak institutions and the fact that most farmers lack land titles, according to a study of EUDR impacts by the Amazon Business Alliance, a joint-initiative by USAID, Canada and the nonprofit group Conservation International. 

Ethiopia, where coffee makes up about a third of total export earnings according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture report, has been slow to react. The national plan it rolled out in February 2024 fails to resolve the fundamental issue of how to gather required data from millions of small farmers and provide that information to buyers, said Gizat Worku, head of the Ethiopian Coffee Exporters Association. 

“That requires a huge amount of resources,” he said 

Gizat, who like many Ethiopians goes by his first name, said that orders are falling because of doubts about the country’s ability to comply with the EUDR. Some traders are contemplating switching to other markets, like the Middle East or China, where Ethiopian coffee is “booming,” he said. But switching markets isn’t easy. 

“These regulations are going to have a tremendous impact,” Gizat said.
…

…

…