BANGKOK — Thailand will face a population crisis should the country’s low birth rate continue, possibly shrinking its population by half. Experts say the government must prioritize boosting Thailand’s parenthood welfare to find a solution to the crisis.

The average number of children born to one woman in Thailand is about 1.16, according to the World Bank figures for 2021, while some media report the rate was 1.08 for 2022. Thai health officials confirmed fewer than half-a-million new births, 485,085, in 2022 — the lowest number in 70 years.

Experts say that by the year 2083, Thailand’s population will shrink to 33 million should the current trend continue, with the majority being senior citizens.

Thailand currently has a workforce of about 39 million out of a nationwide population that exceeds 70 million.

Thai Health Minister Cholnan Srikaew has said the country’s birth rate decline is at a critical level.

Variety of causes

Sasiwimon Warunsiri Paweenawat, associate professor of economics at Thammasat University, cites numerous reasons for the declining birth rate.

“It’s decreasing a lot because we have an improvement of the health care system and the excess of the birth control,” she told VOA. “And in the past, the government has the policy to encourage the birth control.”

Thailand’s first national population program began in the 1970s. Sasiwimon said the government promoted a policy for the population to have fewer children.

Data show it worked: From 1963 to 1983, Thailand saw approximately 1 million new births annually before it steadily declined over four decades.

“They even had the slogan that ‘if you have more children, you will become poorer,’” Sasiwimon said.

Cholnan wants to rid Thailand of that notion under the “Give Birth, Great World” campaign, which makes boosting the country’s birth rate a national cause. He said the campaign aims to increase fertility throughout the country and provide medical help to those with reproductive issues.

Thailand isn’t the only Asian country grappling with low birth rates. Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all have declining birth rates.

Sasiwimon says said education, cost of living, changing attitudes and maternity leave also affect Thailand’s low birth rate.

In Thailand pregnant women are entitled to no more than 98 days, or 14 weeks, maternity leave, which is one of the lowest in the Southeast Asia region. The International Labor Organization Maternity Protection Convention recommends 18 weeks maternity leave for a parent to recover from the pregnancy.

“In my research we found when women have more and more years of education, they prefer to have fewer children. When women are more educated, they join the labor market and earn income. If they have more and more children, they lose that income because of the costs,” she said. “Having children, [costs are] very high now — and the more educated the woman, the less likely they are to have children.”

Changing opinions about family

Many younger Thais have different attitudes than their elders.

“The attitude among the Thai population, the Gen Y, around 21 to 37 years old, are a large group of Thai population right now.  Compared to Gen X, who prioritize the family, this generation Y, they prioritize their career path and their personal life,” Sasiwimon said. “So, that’s why getting married or having children is their last priority. Instead of a work-family balance, they tend to prioritize themselves and it becomes a ‘work-and-me balance.’”

Jongjit Rittirong, associate professor for the Institute for Population and Social Research at Mahidol University, says Thailand has no time to waste implementing better welfare structures for parents.

“Increasing the birth rate within a short period or in a few years is impossible,” she told VOA. “Thailand needs a national plan in all policies to maintain the fertility level and needs a lot of effort to increase the birth rate, which may take years.

“According to the lesson from other developed countries,” she said, “increasing the birth rate is not that simple. It requires effort in many dimensions of social welfare to raise the birth rate.”

Rittirong also told VOA that families need a socially supportive environment to raise a child.

“For example, working couples need safe childcare in the first five years to care for their kids during working time. Some prefer childcare at their workplace, so they can stop by during the day to see their kids and give breastfeeding,” she said.

“Longer paid parental leave, flexible working hours for working parents, quality of school with affordable tuition fees, affordable housing with a friendly environment for kids’ activities, [and] medical insurance for young children [are also needed].”

Despite the concerns, Sasiwimon said she is happy Thailand’s new government is paying attention to the issue.

“The good news? The current government, they made it a national agenda to encourage people to have children,” she said. “When I look at the policy, if that can implement, it will be very good — the government has to adjust to the environment, provide a family friendly policy, provide assistance for mothers and encourage the role of both father and mother. This would be good to correct this crisis.

“If you want to adjust the population structure, it takes time,” Sasiwimon said. “If you want to have one child today, it can be in [the] labor force after 15 years. So, it’s a long-term plan, but I’m quite happy they have said it is a national agenda.”
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Tel Aviv, Israel — During China’s annual national legislature this month, Premier Li Qiang announced plans to construct more solar and wind farms as well as hydropower projects.

China is already the world’s largest producer of renewable energy and also holds near-monopolies on the globe’s renewable energy manufacturing and supply chain. Last year alone China produced more solar panels than the U.S. has ever produced in total.

China’s dominance in electric vehicle battery components and solar power panels has rattled Western governments, including those of the European Union and the United States, which blame Beijing’s “huge” state subsidies. The U.S. has responded with its own subsidies and incentives to boost American production.

China is also the world’s biggest consumer of fossil fuels and the globe’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. But analysts say that puts Beijing in a good position to partner on renewable energy growth with a somewhat surprising group — oil producers in the Persian Gulf.

Gulf States including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Kuwait and Iraq produced about a third of the world’s crude oil in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But they’re also diversifying away from those industries with help from China, say analysts.

Energy and Geopolitics Researcher Elai Rettig at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University tells VOA it’s a mutually beneficial investment as the shift to green energy will free up oil for sale to the Gulf’s main consumers in Asia, especially China.

“In that region, oil is cheaper than water,” notes Rettig.  “The more you invest in the Gulf, the more you can trust they’ll see you get oil even under sanctions. China is the biggest oil importer in the world and needs to make sure someone will sell them cheap oil if there’s a confrontation with the U.S.”

But it’s less about the Gulf states’ love of China and more about Beijing’s ability to deliver on large-scale projects at lower costs, says Li-Chen Sim, a nonresident fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

“The Chinese can produce low-priced, polysilicon for solar panels because labor costs are cheaper, so products are cheaper. Solar model assembly in China is 50% cheaper than in Europe,” she told VOA.

Western countries have raised tariffs on Chinese imports and offered fresh subsidies to encourage domestic competition. The European Union this month approved import taxes on Chinese electric vehicles and is considering them for solar panels.

The EU this month moved closer to banning products made with forced labor, which is expected to include polysilicon components for solar panels made in China’s western Xinjiang region, which supplies nearly half the global demand.

The United States stopped all imports from the region in 2022 as part of a crackdown on forced labor imposed on the region’s ethnic Uyghur Muslim minority, which China denies.

Despite pushback from the West, plunging solar prices are making it harder to compete with Chinese manufacturers.

Nonetheless, China has some competition when it comes to renewable energy in the Gulf States, says Sim.

“China plays a role [in the Gulf] in the financing, contractor and equipment sectors — in financing they are significant. But in fact, not as significant as the Japanese,” she said.  “Japan’s role in green energy financing in the Gulf is huge.”

During his July 2023 Middle East tour aimed at promoting Japan’s green technology and regional economic ties, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida signed signed 23 agreements with the UAE to strengthen cooperation and existing partnerships.

Japan in 2017 became the first country in the world to formulate a national hydrogen strategy with plans to become the first “hydrogen society.”

But it will have to compete with China, already the world’s top producer and consumer of hydrogen, though most of it is generated with high-carbon emission fossil fuels like coal.  
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TOKYO — The Japanese bar association is urging Tokyo’s metropolitan government to suspend a disputed redevelopment of the city’s beloved park area, saying that its environmental assessment by developers lacked objective and scientific grounds.

The metropolitan government approved the Jingu Gaien redevelopment project in February 2023, based on the environmental assessment submitted by the developers, allowing the start of construction.

The plan involves razing a famous baseball stadium and rebuilding it as part of a vast construction project that critics say would threaten thousands of trees in a city of meager green space.

Hundreds of outside experts, including architects, environmentalists and academics, have demanded the suspension of the project in open letters and petition campaigns.

The developers are the real estate company Mitsui Fudosan, Meiji Jingu shrine, Itochu Corp. and the government-affiliated Japan Sports Council.

In the latest opposition to the project, the Japan Federation of Bar Associations issued a statement Thursday in which the lawyers’ group said the environmental assessment lacks sufficient data and used erroneous research methods.

In one example, the developers’ report failed to mention the status of gingko trees even though a United Nations-affiliated environmental group has detected deterioration in the health of gingko trees in the area, the statement said. Environmentalists have said that high-rise buildings planned as part of the development would come too close to nearby gingko trees.

Also, the Japan branch of the International Council on Monuments and Sites, which has issued a “heritage alert” for Tokyo’s Gaien area, was never invited to environmental assessment meetings, the bar association said.

“We do not consider the report objective or scientific,” the statement said.

It urged the Tokyo metropolitan government to suspend the project, ask the developers to resubmit their environmental assessment and have it reviewed by an investigative panel of experts.

Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike told a news conference Friday that she was unaware of details in the bar association’s statement but defended the metropolitan government’s 2023 approval of the development plans as appropriate.

Although the Tokyo government has never formally suspended the project, the developers have voluntarily delayed portions of it, including the felling of trees, presumably due to the outcry. The main developer, Mitsui Fudosan, has said it is reexamining the project’s effects on nearby gingko trees and is working to improve transparency and communication with the public.

The bar association also noted that a respected group, the International Association for Impact Assessments, urged the Tokyo governor in June 2023 to stop the project, but that the appeal was ignored.
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Islamabad — Free speech advocates are urging Pakistan authorities Friday to unconditionally release an independent journalist and remove a month-long blockade of X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

Journalist Asad Ali Toor, who has nearly 300,000 followers on X and more than 160,000 subscribers to his YouTube political affairs channel, was arrested on February 26 by the Federal Investigation Agency, or FIA. 

He was accused of running a “malicious” and “anti-state” drive through his social media platforms against Pakistani government officials and state institutions.

Toor was frequently broadcasting commentaries critical of the chief justice of Pakistan and the country’s powerful military establishment before being arrested. 

The U.S.-based Committee to Protect Journalists, or CPJ, demanded Friday that authorities immediately and unconditionally release Toor, return his devices, and stop harassing him in retaliation for his journalistic work.

“The ongoing detention and investigation of journalist Asad Ali Toor, as well as authorities’ seizure of his devices and pressure to disclose his sources, constitute an egregious violation of press freedom in Pakistan,” the CPJ statement quoted its Asia program coordinator Beh Lih Yi as saying.

She urged Pakistani authorities to stop using the country’s Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act and other “draconian laws” to persecute journalists and silence critical reporting and commentary.

In a remand application filed in court on March 3, the FIA stated that Toor was “non-cooperative to disclose his sources of information,” even though local laws protect journalists’ right to privacy and non-disclosure of their sources.

Matiullah Jan, a well-known Pakistani journalist with 1 million X followers and more than 270,000 subscribers to his YouTube channel, criticized Toor’s arrest, saying he is being denied the due process of law. 

Jan told VOA that instead of doing justice, the due process of law has been used to punish a journalist. 

“Arresting a journalist who is already cooperating in the inquiry, putting handcuffs on him and pushing him around to produce him in court, not allowing his family members to meet him. This is all abuse of the process of law against a journalist for reporting (critical) things,” Jan said. 

Toor is the second Pakistani journalist to have been arrested over the past month. In late February, authorities in the country’s most populous province of Punjab took a nationally known journalist, Imran Riaz Khan, into custody on alleged corruption charges. 

The jailed Khan denied any wrongdoing and told the judge during a recent court hearing that he was being punished for criticizing alleged state-sponsored rigging in the February 8 national elections. 

Pakistan’s elections were marred by allegations of widespread voter fraud to enable pro-military parties to win the elections, charges officials rejected.

X remains inaccessible 

Meanwhile, access to social media platform X remained restricted in Pakistan Friday, nearly a month after services were suspended amid the election rigging charges. 

Users in Pakistan, including government officials and ministers, bypass the ban through virtual private networks, or VPNs, which allow users to hide their identities and locations online. 

Human rights defenders and even Pakistani lawmakers from ruling and opposition parties have criticized the restriction, saying it has placed Pakistan in a group of countries that have imposed long-term or permanent bans on international social media platforms.

A group of nearly 60 local and foreign civil society groups, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, and prominent individual activists, in a collective statement Wednesday, criticized internet service disruptions in Pakistan, saying they “infringe upon the fundamental rights” of access to information and freedom of expression.

The statement said, “The arbitrary blocking of platforms, including the prolonged and unannounced disruption of “X” since 17 February 2024, is a sobering illustration of growing digital censorship in the country.” 

It called on Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s newly elected coalition government to immediately issue a clarification outlining the reasons and legal basis for blocking X and other affected platforms.

Government officials have denied any disruption in internet services, saying they have “not seen any directive” to ban X. Independent monitor groups and Pakistani users have rejected the official claims.

“Metrics show that X has now been restricted in #Pakistan for three weeks; the popular microblogging platform has been largely unavailable since 17 February following a series of social media shutdowns targeting political opposition and an election day telecoms blackout,” NetBlocks, a global cybersecurity monitor, said on X on March 9. 

Authorities shut down mobile internet services across Pakistan on election day, citing terrorism threats to the voting process. The move, however, triggered domestic and international backlash and fueled vote-rigging allegations.
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Sydney — Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong said Friday the government will resume funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, which is providing humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.  In January, Australia joined several Western nations in suspending funding to UNRWA after Israeli intelligence suggested a dozen of its workers had been linked to the October 7 attack by Hamas militants.  Australia is also being criticized for canceling the visas of several Palestinians fleeing the conflict with Israel in Gaza.  The Australia Greens party says the move “shows a lack of humanity.”

Speaking to reporters Friday in Canberra Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Penny Wong  said she was confident UNRWA was “not a terrorist organization.”  She added that the United Nations aid agency for Palestinians was critical to providing help to people in Gaza “who are on the brink of starving.”

Earlier this month, Canada and the European Union announced they would also resume funding to UNRWA. The United States, the agency’s largest donor, continues to freeze payments.

Wong told reporters she is satisfied an investigation into the allegations following the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas has been thorough.

“The nature of these allegations warranted an immediate and appropriate response. The best available current advice from agencies and the Australian government lawyers is that UNRWA is not a terrorist organization, and that existing additional safeguards sufficiently protect Australian taxpayer funding,” she said.

Australia’s resumption of aid to the agency comes amid criticism for canceling the visas of Palestinians fleeing the conflict.

Data from the Department of Home Affairs states that Australia granted 2,273 temporary visas for Palestinians with connections to Australia between October 7 and February 6.  

More than 2,400 visitor visas were also granted to people declaring Israeli citizenship during that period.

The visa category does not allow recipients to work or have access to education or government-funded health care in Australia, although they would not be turned away from emergency rooms.

Campaigners for refugees and migrants say several Palestinians have had their Australian visas abruptly canceled by the Canberra government in recent days. The government, citing “privacy reasons,” refuses to say how many visas are affected.

A cancelation notification obtained by local media asserted a particular applicant had never intended to genuinely “stay temporarily in Australia.”

Australia’s left-leaning Labor government has defended its actions, insisting they were based on ongoing security checks.  A spokesperson for the Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil said the “Australian government reserves the right to cancel any issued visas if circumstances change.”

But Adam Bandt, the leader of the Australian Greens party, told the Australian Broadcasting Corp.  Friday that visa applicants are being treated unfairly.

“What Labor is saying is that peoples’ visas are being canceled because Labor does not know how long the Labor-backed invasion of Gaza will last, and, accordingly, they are refusing them entry into the country.  That is callous inhumanity,” said Bandt.

Australia has said Israel has the right to defend itself after the attack by Hamas militants last October.

Canberra advocates a two-state solution in which Israel and a future Palestinian state co‑exist within internationally recognized borders. 
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washington — North Korea is operating more than 50 restaurants staffed by its citizens in more than 10 Chinese cities in violation of U.N. sanctions, according to a diplomatic source.

The North Korean regime takes most of the wages its workers earn abroad to fund its nuclear and missile programs.

The source, who asked not to be named because the person was not authorized to speak to the press, provided the names of the restaurants in Korean and Chinese and their addresses in China to VOA’s Korean Service.

The U.N. Panel of Experts that monitors enforcement of sanctions against North Korea is expected to include the list in a report scheduled for publication in the coming weeks, the source said.

The U.S. called for all U.N. member states to enforce sanctions on North Korea when asked about VOA Korean’s findings.

“Under Security Council Resolution 2397, all U.N. member states are obligated to repatriate DPRK nationals earning income in their jurisdiction, subject to certain exceptions,” a U.S. State Department spokesperson said. DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the country’s official name.

“Revenue generated by overseas DPRK laborers is used to fund the DPRK’s WMD [weapons of mass destruction] and ballistic missile programs,” continued the spokesperson on Tuesday via email to VOA’s Korean Service.

The U.N. Security Council passed Resolution 2397 in 2017 requiring all member states to send North Korean workers back to their countries by December 2019. It was adopted in response to North Korea’s launch of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile in November 2017.

It will be the first time that a list of North Korean restaurants in China will be included in a U.N. expert panel report since the December 2019 deadline, although the panel published a report listing North Korean restaurants nine months prior to that.

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, told VOA’s Korean Service on Monday that he was “unaware of the specific situation.”

He continued, via email, “China has been earnestly implementing the relevant Security Council resolutions. The resolutions are not just about sanctions, but also stress the importance of dialogue.”

He added, “We oppose taking a selective, sanctions-only approach without due emphasis on promoting dialogues.”

Joshua Stanton, an attorney based in Washington who helped draft the U.S. Sanctions and Policy Enforcement Act in 2016, said, “The fact that China allows them to work inside its territory five years after a U.N. deadline to repatriate them is further proof, which can be added to an already extensive file of evidence, that it is a flagrant violator of the sanctions it voted for in the Security Council.”

Stanton said via email to VOA on Wednesday that North Korea uses restaurants it sets up overseas as “fronts for laundering cash from forced labor, cybercrimes and other illicit activities.”

The regime also sends young women from North Korea to work long hours at its restaurants abroad and then confiscates most or all of their wages, he said.

The list includes seven North Korean restaurants in Beijing and seven in Shanghai.

Shenyang, a city in Liaoning province that borders North Korea, has 17.

Dandong, a city about 12 kilometers (7.45 miles) from the North Korean city of Shinuiju, has the second-largest concentration of North Korean restaurants on the list. Shinuiju is near the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge that connects the two countries.

Aaron Arnold, a former member of the U.N. Panel of Experts for North Korea’s sanctions and currently a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Service Institute, a London-based security think tank, told VOA Korean that China and North Korea could be violating other U.N. sanctions. He spoke with VOA Korean on Wednesday via email.

If the restaurants are considered a joint venture, they are in violation of Resolution 2270, which bans establishing new entities with North Korea, according to Arnold. If the restaurants have bank accounts in China, they also violate Resolution 1874, he continued.

UNSC Resolution 2375, passed in 2017, bans all joint ventures including existing ones formed with North Korea.

“Our own government is also to blame if Chinese banks are either willfully or negligently laundering that money and not facing subpoenas, investigations, special measures and secondary sanctions for doing so,” said Stanton.

Secondary sanctions refer to sanctions targeting foreign entities and individuals such as Chinese banks that conduct businesses with already sanctioned entities, individuals and countries such as North Korea.

Arnold said the presence of North Korean restaurants in China represents “another example of China failing to implement its sanctions obligations.”

North Korea has also operated restaurants in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Thailand in the past. Some have closed since the sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic, while others remain open.
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U.S. State Department — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to the Philippines next week, following a recent trade mission there by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. The visit comes amid escalating tensions between the Philippines and China over maritime disputes in the South China Sea. 

“Secretary Blinken will travel to Manila to reaffirm our unwavering commitment to our Philippine allies” and “promote peace and stability in the South China Sea,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said during a Thursday briefing. 

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has announced his meeting with Blinken on March 19, with a focus on issues of cooperation and security.

“The secretary’s visit will also underscore the importance of our strong bilateral ties, which for 75 years, have been critical to advancing our shared vision for a free and open connected, prosperous, secure and resilient Indo-Pacific region,” Miller said. 

During Commerce Secretary Raimondo’s trade and investment mission to Manila this week, she announced plans to invest more than $1 billion in the Philippines’ tech sector and help double the number of semiconductor factories in the country. Washington’s move is seen as boosting Manila’s chip sector amid intense competition with Beijing. 

Blinken will start his trip late Thursday, heading first to Vienna for a meeting of the United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs. His trip will include a stop in Seoul where South Korea is hosting a Summit for Democracy.

The meeting between Marcos and Blinken is set against a backdrop of increasing tension over territorial disputes in the South China Sea between Manila and Beijing. Marcos has committed to upholding the Philippines’ maritime claims, following Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call for military preparedness for potential sea conflicts.  

A recent collision near the waters around Second Thomas Shoal (known as Ren’ai Shoal in China) has further strained the relationship between the two countries. The rich fishing ground is about 200 kilometers (124 miles) from the nearest Philippines island and 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) from China. 

On March 5, the Philippine Coast Guard said Chinese ships carried out dangerous maneuvers and fired water cannons on Philippine vessels, causing multiple collisions, and damaging at least one Philippine vessel.   

China accused the Philippines of intruding on its territory “without the permission of the Chinese government.” A PRC spokesperson said the Chinese foreign ministry “has lodged solemn representations with the Philippines and expressed strong protest.” 

According to an international tribunal’s legally binding decision issued in July 2016, Second Thomas Shoal is located within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, and China has no lawful maritime claims to the waters around the low-tide feature. 

Beijing has rejected the ruling, claiming “indisputable sovereignty” over most of the South China Sea. 

The United States said it stands with the Philippines. The State Department issued a strong statement on March 5 to condemn “the PRC’s repeated obstruction of Philippine vessels” and said Beijing’s actions “show disregard for the safety and livelihoods of Filipinos and international law.” 

The White House has announced that it will host Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio for an official visit on April 10. Japanese media outlet The Asahi Shimbun reported that leaders from Japan, the United States and the Philippines are planning a summit in Washington around that time. 
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ISLAMABAD — An International Monetary Fund delegation began a review of Pakistan’s current loan program Thursday as the cash-strapped country looks for additional funding to tackle its economic challenges.  

The four-day review will decide whether to release the final payment under a $3 billion IMF bailout package, which Islamabad secured last year to avert a sovereign debt default.  

An official Pakistani statement issued after the opening session said that Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and Nathan Porter, the IMF mission chief in Pakistan, led their respective teams at the meeting.  

Aurangzeb was quoted as expressing his government’s commitment to work with the IMF “on the reform agenda for economic growth and stability” in Pakistan. 

The statement said without elaborating, “Discussions were held on the overall macro-economic indicators, government’s efforts on fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, energy sector viability, and SOE (state-owned enterprise) governance.”  

Pakistan has already received about $1.9 billion from the IMF under the 9-month stand-by arrangement (SBA), which will expire in April.  

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s newly elected coalition government said ahead of the talks that Islamabad was on track to receive the last SBA installment of about $1.1 billion. 

Pakistan’s Finance Ministry reported Wednesday that it “has met all structural benchmarks, qualitative performance criteria, and indicative targets for successfully completing the IMF review.”  

The ministry added that the appraisal was expected to produce a “staff-level agreement,” and the remaining payment would be disbursed after the IMF executive board approved it. 

A spokesperson for the Washington-headquartered global lender said in the run-up to Thursday’s talks that the focus of its mission would be on completing Pakistan’s “current SBA-supported program, which ends in April 2024.” 

Aurangzeb told reporters earlier this week that his government would use the opportunity during the review meetings to make a case for “a longer and larger” loan program under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, or EFF. However, he did not state the size of the additional funding required by his country.  

The EFF provides financial assistance to countries facing serious medium-term balance of payments problems because of structural weaknesses that require time to address. 

Aurangzeb said that his government “would be very keen” to start discussions on the EFF with the IMF. The minister added that he would be traveling to Washington next month for further discussions on the subject at the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings. 

Pakistan held national elections last month, returning Sharif to power for a second time amid widespread allegations of voter fraud and military interference. Analysts said that the controversy-marred election outcome had dampened hopes for much-needed political stability to address economic challenges facing the nuclear-armed South Asian nation. 

Despite securing more than 20 IMF loan programs, a lack of critical reforms dwindling foreign exchange reserves, a balance of payment crisis, rising inflation, record local currency depreciation, and persistent political turmoil over the past several years continue to cripple Pakistan’s debt-ridden economy.
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Taipei, Taiwan — Online nationalism has been surging in China in recent weeks, with a growing band of cyber nationalists targeting the country’s first Nobel laureate in literature, Mo Yan, and the largest bottled water producer, Nongfu Spring.

The online attacks against Nongfu Spring began after prominent nationalist billionaire Zong Qinghou, the founder of the company’s key competitor, Hangzhou Wahaha Group, passed away on February 25.

Some netizens began comparing Zong with Nongfu Spring’s founder, Zhong Shanshan, the richest person in China, and it quickly grew into an all-out attack against Nongfu Spring. Some online nationalists claimed packaging of Nongfu Springs’ products contains Japanese elements, accusing him of being pro-Japan, while others focused on allegations that Zhong’s son is a U.S. citizen.

“If the successor of Nongfu Spring is an American, this company’s ideology is unacceptable,” wrote one Chinese netizen on China’s popular social media platform Weibo.

“I can’t accept that an American becomes the richest man in China,” another netizen Liu Jia-nan wrote on Weibo. “Even if I can’t change anything, me and my family can definitely stop buying Nongfu Spring’s products.”

The call for boycotting Nongfu Spring’s products has affected the company’s stock, which dropped more than 6% since the attacks began last month. Amid the turmoil, Chinese media outlets reported that Zhong Shanshan stepped down as legal representative of one of Nongfu Spring’s subsidiaries on March 11.

Chinese Nobel laureate Mo Yan, whose real name is Guan Moye, also came under attack from a self-proclaimed nationalistic blogger last month. Wu Wanzheng, who runs the account “Truth Telling Mao Xinghua” on Weibo, announced on February 27 that he planned to sue Mo for violating the Heroes and Martyrs Protection Law in China, which carries a maximum three-year jail sentence if found guilty.

In the indictment shared by Wu on Weibo, he accused Mo of glorifying the Japanese invaders in his novel “Red Sorghum,” which tells the story of a Chinese family during the Second Sino-Japanese War.

He also claimed that Mo tried to “smear heroes and martyrs of the People’s Liberation Army” during the Chinese Civil War in another novel. Wu demanded that Mo apologize, offer an equivalent of $0.14 U.S. dollars to each Chinese citizen as compensation, and have his books removed from shelves across China.

Mo and Nongfu Spring are not the only targets of Chinese nationalists’ online attacks in recent years. Several Chinese and global brands, including Chinese sportswear manufacturer Li Ning and Western brands such as H&M, Nike and Adidas, have come under fire for either having designs that resemble Japanese soldiers’ uniforms during World War II or for boycotting cotton from China’s Xinjiang region.

Some experts say for Chinese people engaging in online activities, “wielding the flag of nationalism” is like “a protective shield.

“Those people choose their targets very carefully and they know they can drive a lot of online traffic to themselves,” Dali Yang, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, told VOA in a phone interview.

He said in some cases, Chinese nationalists may feel a “moral righteousness” when they target certain businesses or individuals. “Unless the situation becomes too excessive, the overall environment would generally be permissive toward people who engage in these activities,” Yang said.

And while there used to be mechanisms to prevent content on Chinese social media from becoming too nationalistic, online content regulators are focused more now on removing critical opinions that may be deemed “unpatriotic” or “sensitive” by Chinese officials.

“There is no resistance to nationalistic content on the Chinese internet, and the reason why Chinese authorities don’t remove nationalistic content online is because it’s in line with the government’s narrative,” Eric Liu, a former Weibo moderator and an editor at U.S.-based bilingual news website China Digital Times, told VOA by phone.

After facing threats from the nationalistic blogger, Mo participated in an event with British writer Abdulrazak Gurnah in Beijing earlier this week, which was covered by several Chinese state media outlets. China’s state broadcaster CCTV also reportedly conducted an interview with the celebrated writer.

Separately, some Chinese netizens have come out to urge nationalists to stop targeting Nongfu Spring, while several state-controlled media outlets across China have published opinion pieces to call on nationalists to “stop the witch hunt against another business owners” in China.

Despite efforts from state media to push back against the online attacks, some observers said it’s unlikely the Chinese government will try to stop this trend. “The government would have punished those online nationalists if they want to stop these targeted online attacks,” Murong Xuecun, a prominent Chinese novelist, told VOA by phone.

“China’s free speech environment is already in a bad shape after a decade under Xi’s rule, and if the trend of targeted online attacks continues, the free speech environment in the country will likely further deteriorate,” the novelist said.

In addition to a deteriorating free speech environment, Liu at China Digital Times said this trend may create a chilling effect for many Chinese internet users. “The online environment in China will deteriorate to a point where many internet users may be concerned about becoming the target of such attacks,” he told VOA.
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Taipei, Taiwan — During a trade mission visit to Manila this week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo announced plans to invest more than $1 billion in the Philippines’ tech sector and help double the number of semiconductor factories in the country.

Observers say the pledge and visit highlight the Southeast Asian nation’s growing importance to Washington and will also help reduce the Philippine economy’s reliance on China.

“U.S. companies have realized that our chip supply chain is way too concentrated in just a few countries in the world,” Raimondo said in remarks at a business forum on Tuesday.

“Forget about geopolitics. Just at that level of concentration, you know the old adage, ‘Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.’ Why do we allow ourselves to be buying so many of our chips from one or two countries? That’s why we need to diversify,” Raimondo said.

American business executives from 22 businesses, including Alphabet’s Google, Visa and Microsoft, joined Raimondo on the trip.

Possible expansion of chip industry

JC Punongbayan, resident economist and columnist of the online news website Rappler.com, said that while the Philippines is one of the key centers in the global electronics industry chain, it does not yet have the ability to manufacture smartphone or computer chips. The Philippines currently has 13 semiconductor factories that focus on assembly, packaging and testing.

“This commitment by the U.S. government to boost the local semiconductor industry is a welcome development because right now, even if semiconductors have figured prominently in trade statistics, these are not high value-added. So basically, we import a lot of components and then export them after assembly and packaging,” Punongbayan told VOA’s Mandarin Service.

“Hopefully, these investments by the U.S. government and private sector partners will enable the Philippines to export higher value-added goods in the future,” he said.

Punongbayan believes that at a time when the Philippines is working hard to amend its regulations and hoping to attract more foreign direct investment, the promised investment from U.S. companies could provide a strong boost to the capital-starved country.

“We have had some difficulties when it comes to attracting foreign investments. And in fact, from 2020 to 2023, foreign direct investments dropped by more than 6% on an annual basis. So, we really need these investments in order to boost the economy,” Punongbayan said.

“And the billion-dollar investment pledge of the U.S. is several times the actual foreign direct investments that have come in recent years — in fact, almost nine times the foreign direct investment from the U.S. in 2023. These are very crucial to Philippine development,” he said.

During Raimondo’s two-day visit, U.S. companies committed to invest in the digital and energy sectors, areas that are in line with Manila’s overall development plans and will help the Philippines’ industrial upgrading and transformation, Punongbayan said.

Defense and economy

Dindo Manhit, president of the Stratbase ADR Institute for Strategic and International Studies, a policy think tank in the Philippines, said that over the years, the Philippines’ economic growth has been mainly driven by strong consumption.

These investment commitments by U.S. companies will accelerate local economic growth, Manhit said, benefiting both the public and private sectors and positively affecting areas such as the Philippines’ manufacturing supply chain and business process outsourcing.

He said these investments could also allow Manila to fully understand that strengthening its alliance with Washington will not only bring it defense assistance but also economic security.

“Because we all share values, democratic values. We value jobs for people. In the case of the Philippines, imagine if we can create jobs that could provide better income for Filipinos,” Manhit said. “Then we will see the strong partnership with the U.S. not limited to national security only, but also economic security.”

Washington’s pledges of economic support for the Philippines comes at a time of rising tensions between Manila and Beijing over sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea.

Earlier this month, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo warned that Manila is facing severe “economic coercion” from China. He also said the Philippines relies heavily on trade relations with China and hopes to expand economic and trade connections with other countries, including establishing formal free trade agreement negotiations with the European Union as soon as possible.

Punongbayan said that despite the disputes in the South China Sea, Manila continues to import a large amount of goods from China, which is the largest source of the country’s trade deficit. That shows how difficult it is for the country to decouple its economy from China, and why it is imperative for Manila to lessen its dependence on Beijing.

Greater interest from the United States to invest in the Philippines is a step in the right direction, he said.

“If we import a lot from China, then indirectly we are boosting China’s economy at the same time. And of course, part of the revenues coming from these payments to China will go to the Chinese government,” Punongbayan said. “So indirectly, in a way, the Philippines is funding China’s incursions in the West Philippine Sea.”

Manhit, however, said compared with other Southeast Asian countries, the Philippine economy is not very dependent on China.

According to recent poll by Stratbase ADR Institute for Strategic and International Studies, the country Filipinos most want to maintain good economic relations with is the U.S., followed by Japan, while China ranks at the bottom.

He said the poll not only shows that China does not have as strong an economic influence on the Philippines as Beijing claims, but also that Filipinos are unanimously willing to expand economic cooperation with countries that share common democratic values, or values of human rights and the rule of law.
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Bangkok — Thailand’s former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra arrived by private jet on Thursday to visit his northern hometown of Chiang Mai for the first time since fleeing the country after a military coup in 2006.

The influential billionaire has loomed large over Thai politics for two decades, during which his family backed Pheu Thai party has won nearly every general election and is now in power.

In August he made a dramatic return from 15 years of self-imposed exile to dodge jail for alleged abuse of power.

After just six months in a prison hospital, Thaksin received parole in February despite not having spent a single night in jail for a sentence commuted by the king to one year from eight.

Thaksin, wearing a mask and a neck brace, was flanked by his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, agriculture minister Thammanat Prompao and dozens of officials on his arrival for a three-day visit, but he did not speak to media.

“Missed you,” one supporter told the former premier on his first stop at a park, where he met a crowd of dozens with his palms joined together in a traditional gesture of greeting, before she took a selfie picture with him.

“Prime Minister of our hearts,” read the caption under a picture of Thaksin emblazoned on the jacket of another.

At the time of his release from prison, an official had described him as being “truly ill”, needing a wheelchair and wearing his arm in a sling.

Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong said Thaksin had sought permission for the visit to seek alternative medical advice and pay respects to his ancestors.

Critics have complained about Thaksin’s lenient treatment. Thaksin’s return last year coincided to the day with his ally and political newcomer Srettha Thavisin being chosen as prime minister, leading many to suspect a deal between Thaksin and his powerful enemies in the royalist-military establishment.

Thaksin and the government have dismissed the speculation.
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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — As China’s biggest political meeting of the year wrapped up Monday, analysts highlighted how power in the world’s second-largest economy continues to consolidate under leader Xi Jinping. Some were also discussing two other prominent politicians — Premier Li Qiang and Xi’s Chief of Staff, Cai Qi — and the role they play in Xi’s China.

Li and Cai are members of the Chinese Communist Party’s top decision-making body, the Politburo Standing Committee. Li is ranked second on the PSC, and Cai is ranked fifth. Both are seen as Xi loyalists who were handpicked by China’s leader to serve in their current roles.

They also have ties with Xi that stretch back decades.

Cai worked with Xi in the 1980s when he was posted in China’s southern coastal province of Fujian. They later worked together in Zhejiang, where Xi rose to the post of provincial party secretary.

Li also worked with Xi in Zhejiang, where he held various posts, including party secretary of Shanghai, before rising to his current position as premier.

Some analysts say that during this year’s Two Sessions, the power of Li, who as premier oversees economic decision-making, was weakened, while the power of Cai, who is responsible for maintaining stability, is on the rise, given China’s growing emphasis on national security.

Hsin-hsien Wang, a distinguished professor at the Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies at National Chengchi University in Taipei, says one major focus of this year’s meetings was a revision of the Organic Law of the State Council, China’s cabinet. The changes to the law — the first since 1982 — gave the party more executive control over the State Council.

“Li Qiang is responsible for the affairs of the State Council, including economy, society, industry and development, while Cai Qi is responsible for security and party affairs,” 

Wang said. “This division of labor is becoming more and more clear, so some people overseas say it is the ‘Gang of Three,’ meaning Xi, Li Qiang and Cai Qi.”

China also abandoned a 30-year tradition during this year’s meetings when it canceled the premier’s press conference at the end of the meetings. Both moves, analysts say, downgrade the status of Li and the State Council he presides over.

In contrast, Cai is ranked fifth in China’s leadership chain but is the first in that position to become a top aid to the president since the time of China’s former revolutionary leader Mao Zedong. He has accompanied Xi on numerous foreign trips and in meetings with foreign leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden last November.

Willy Lam, a senior fellow at The Jamestown Foundation in Hong Kong, says that since winning an unprecedented third five-year term in 2022, X has emphasized that the party leads everything, including the economic and financial fields.

Lam says Xi’s concentration of power even exceeds that of Mao.

“Even in Mao’s era, when [he] wanted to keep all the power in his own hands, Mao still had to [delegate] part of the power, especially because Mao didn’t know much about economics. So, he still [handed it over to] people like Chen Yun and Deng Xiaoping in the party who knew a little bit about economics.”

Cai Shenkun, a U.S.-based independent social media commentator with 288,000 followers on X, formerly known as Twitter, agrees and calls Li and Cai nothing more than “minions who take orders in front of Xi.”

But other analysts, such as Deng Yuwen, say both men still have their own interests and are highly competitive with each other. Deng, a political commentator and former deputy editor at the party journal Study Times, coined the phrase the “Gang of Three” to refer to the Xi-Li-Cai power circle.

The phrase is a reference to the “Gang of Four” that was led by Mao Zedong’s wife, Jiang Qing, during China’s tumultuous Cultural Revolution. Deng sees similarities between the political power dynamics of Xi, Li and Cai today and those of Mao, his wife and Lin Biao, another key leader at that time.

Lin Biao was one of Mao’s greatest supporters and at one time his designated successor, but he died in a mysterious plane crash in 1971 while allegedly fleeing China as a “traitor,” according to China’s Communist Party. Scholars point out the lack of evidence to support the party’s version of events and some believe he was fleeing from a possible purge.

Jiang Qing was a powerful player during China’s Cultural Revolution from the mid-1960s to mid-1970s, a movement that suppressed traditional Chinese culture and led to the persecution and deaths of millions. She was purged after Mao’s death in 1976 and imprisoned as a member of the “Gang of Four,” which was blamed for the extremism of the Maoist movement.

Deng says that Li and Cai take orders from Xi just like Lin and Jiang did from Mao. But unlike Lin Biao, whose influence over the military gave him a power base that was seen as a challenge to Mao, Li and Cai are “completely relying on Xi’s hand. … Therefore, in terms of their relationship with Xi, the two have no capital to dare to disobey Xi.”

Still, Deng says he believes Li is looking to be appointed as Xi’s successor.

Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political sciences at the National University of Singapore, says Li and Cai must tread carefully so as not to show too much ambition or else they will not only arouse Xi’s suspicion but also that of their peers. Chong says looking back on the communist party’s history, whoever emerged too early as a possible successor was likely to have trouble.

“I think that in such an environment, it is difficult for them to pursue a certain position more formally,” Chong tells VOA.  “If you do it too obviously, you will become a target.”

National Chengchi University’s Wang says Xi’s succession is not yet an issue and may not be for years to come as he could always be reelected by his peers for an unprecedented fourth term in 2027.

China’s National People’s Congress in 2018 eliminated term limits for the president, which could allow the 70-year-old Xi to remain head of state for life.
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SYDNEY — A report released Wednesday shows migrants are paid less than Australian-born workers.  

The Committee for Economic Development of Australia, an independent policy advocacy organization, has found migrants often work in jobs beneath their skill levels and can suffer discrimination.

The look into migration highlights missed opportunities for Australia.  

The policy group asserts that about $2.64 billion in foregone wages would be unlocked each year if migrants earned comparable salaries to Australian-born workers.  

The study found that migrants who have been in Australia for between two to six years earn around 10% less than their locally born counterparts.

The report found the biggest losers were female migrants with a postgraduate degree, who earned on average 31% less than Australian-born women in the workforce with similar qualifications.

The survey’s authors have urged the Canberra government to better recognize the international qualifications of migrants to help address severe skills shortages and to combat discrimination in the workplace.

The committee also said there should be a renewed emphasis on providing better English language tuition to new settlers. 

Melinda Cilento, the chief executive of the Committee for Economic Development of Australia, told the Australian Broadcasting Corp. Wednesday that urgent action is needed.

“What we are finding is that people who come from non-English speaking backgrounds are the ones who are really struggling and that is one of the reasons why when we identify the (pay) gap, we are looking at English language ability,” she said. “It is one of the reasons why we think one of things you need to do is to actually improve English language training for people once they are in Australia.” 

There has been no response, so far, from the Labor government in Canberra.

But last December, the government released its migration strategy. It plans to reduce immigration numbers by half within two years, because it believes current levels are unsustainable. The number of international students will be cut, and there will be a greater effort to attract skilled workers from overseas.

In 2022, more than a half-million immigrants came to Australia, up from 170,000 the previous year in a post-COVID surge after the removal of pandemic border closures.  

Ministers also plan to crack down on international students who have enrolled at bogus colleges in Australia and have been exploiting the system to work and not study.

Most immigrants to Australia come from India and China. 

While Australia seeks to curb the immigration of workers and students, it also has strict refugee policies.  For more than a decade, the navy has been ordered to turn away boats carrying asylum seekers trying to reach Australia.  Those who evade the authorities are automatically detained until their claims are processed.   

Australia grants visas to about 20,000 refugees each year. 
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Sanhe, China — A huge, suspected gas explosion killed one person and injured 22 more in northern China’s Hebei province on Wednesday, state media reported, with social media videos showing severe damage to buildings.

The blast took place just before 8 a.m., state broadcaster CCTV said, in a residential area in the city of Sanhe, less than 50 kilometers east of the capital Beijing.

One person died and 22 were left injured, the broadcaster said, adding the explosion was suspected to have been caused by a gas leak at a fried chicken shop.

“An explosion occurred at the ground floor restaurant in an old residential area,” CCTV said, adding that the injured had been taken to hospital.

“The current situation of casualties is unknown,” CCTV added.

An AFP reporter at the scene observed police officers waving oncoming traffic away from an entrance to the neighborhood where the explosion occurred.

Footage online circulated by state media showed a huge explosion that sent plumes of smoke and fire across a busy road during morning rush hour.

Another video on social media showed what appeared to be a building that had completely collapsed and several destroyed cars.

Rescue workers rushed to the scene, state media said, while the local Langfang fire department said 36 emergency vehicles and 154 personnel had been dispatched to the scene.

“The fire is currently under effective control, and rescue work is being carried out urgently,” the Langfang fire department said.

A merchant working at a nearby store told state-run Jimu News she had been in her shop when she heard a “bang.”

She ran out of her store and saw a building on fire, she said, adding that “the whole building was virtually destroyed.”

Accidents common

Explosions and other deadly accidents are common in China due to lax safety standards and poor enforcement.

And the country has seen a spate of deadly accidents in recent months, often caused by official negligence — prompting calls from President Xi Jinping for “deep reflection” and greater efforts to “curb the frequent occurrence of safety accidents.”

Last month, at least 15 people were killed and 44 injured in a fire at a residential building in the eastern city of Nanjing.

In January, dozens died after a fire broke out at a store in the central city of Xinyu, with state news agency Xinhua reporting the blaze had been caused by the “illegal” use of fire by workers in the store’s basement.

That fire came just days after a late-evening blaze at a school in central Henan province killed 13 schoolchildren as they slept in a dormitory.

Domestic media reports suggested the fire was caused by an electric heating device.

And in November last year, 26 people were killed and dozens sent to hospital after a fire at a coal company office in northern China’s Shanxi province.

Last June, an explosion at a barbecue restaurant in the northwest of the country left 31 dead and prompted official pledges of a nationwide campaign to promote workplace safety.
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WASHINGTON and PHNOM PENH — Climate change and upstream dams, most of them controlled by China, are threatening Cambodia’s enormous Tonle Sap Lake and its surrounding communities, putting the nation’s protein supply and the greater Mekong River ecosystem at risk.

The three-year stretch from 2019-2021 was the driest on record. The Tonle Sap’s vital flood pulse appeared to be dying, along with much of the lake’s bountiful fish stocks. Water typically flows into the Tonle Sap Lake for 120 days during the wet season, swelling it as much as six-fold before running back into the Mekong River as the rainy season ends, usually in late September. This fluctuation is the pulse.

And while the past two years have seen more rainfall, a nearly normal wet-season lake expansion and the usual reversed flow, such temporary relief cannot offset the long-term effects of a lake in crisis, experts and officials told VOA Khmer.

“The new normal is uncertainty,” said Brian Eyler, who directs the Stimson Center’s programs on Southeast Asia and energy, water and sustainability. “That the predictability of a traditional expansion happening nearly every wet season, or every monsoon season, cannot be relied upon.” The Stimson Center is in Washington.

Fears of the ecosystem dying out have drawn international attention, given the Tonle Sap’s distinction as one of the world’s most productive inland fisheries — and as the source of most of the protein consumed by Cambodians.  

Over the past two years, Tonle Sap Lake has reached nearly normal total flow, according to the Stimson Center’s Mekong Dam Monitor project. However, in 2022 much of that flow came later in the wet season due to heavy rainfall, meaning the lake missed out on the early-season inflows that carry sediment, larva and nutrients crucial to annual fish stocks. 

Last year saw monthly flows nearly track historical averages, which produced a decent fishing season, according to the Stimson project. Data from Cambodia’s Fisheries Administration show 413,200 metric tons of freshwater fish were caught in 2019, then 383,050 in 2021 and just 368,059 in 2022. A Fisheries spokesperson told VOA Khmer that 426,750 metric tons of freshwater fish were caught in 2023. Each metric ton equals 1,000 kg.

“For now, the ecosystem of the Mekong seems to be … not like it was before, but it’s still there. It hasn’t completely died out,” Eyler said in January during an interview on the Zoom platform.

The Mekong Dam Monitor is seeking to track where flow originates, where it is being stopped upstream, and how the decisions made by each of the countries are affecting the other nearby nations.

According to its data, the total flow into the Tonle Sap would have been 12.4% higher in September, when it reached its 2023 peak, if it weren’t for water being withheld upstream, mostly in Chinese reservoirs. 

China in the past two years appears to have withheld less water, compared with previous years, according to the monitoring project. Yet it’s unclear if that’s because it is responding to the concerns from downstream communities or because its needs were less, according to the Stimson project.

One phenomenon the Stimson researchers are watching closely is how the wet season is changing. It is arriving later and lasting longer than historical norms, a possible reflection of climate change.

“If indeed that’s true, and [if] we can substantiate it, then there’s reason for the dams upstream not to hold water back at the beginning of the wet season, and to hold water back at the end of the wet season,” said Alan Basist, president of Eyes on Earth and a co-lead researcher of the Mekong Dam Monitor, during the January interview.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said the “rational development” of the Mekong, which China calls the Lancang River, is in the overall interest of all countries that depend on it.

“China always attaches great importance to the concerns and needs of the countries downstream, maintains close communication with them, commits itself to carrying out cooperation on water resources with relevant countries such as sharing hydrological data and flood control and drought relief,” said embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu in an email on February 26.

The Mekong River Commission (MRC) is the main regional body tasked with bringing countries together to coordinate water management and consult on potential new dam projects on the massive river and its tributaries.

In 2020, the MRC attributed the delayed swelling to lower 2019 rainfall and operations of upstream Mekong hydropower dams, two of which are in Laos and 11 in China. 

But the MRC Secretariat said in an email to VOA Khmer in February that it was too soon to know what the “new normal” looks like, given recent droughts and “human activities in the basin,” or how these changes would ultimately affect surrounding communities.

Mak Bunthoeurn, a program manager at the NGO Forum on Cambodia who works with communities along the Mekong and its tributaries in Cambodia, said they have found little cause for optimism, even with the recent relative increase in total flow.

Advocacy groups working with these communities want more data, particularly from China, Mak Bunthoeurn added during a Zoom interview in late January. “I suggest that the governments of the Mekong River have to work together, to cooperate, to ensure that downstream communities will not suffer.” 
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New Delhi — India has dismissed China’s objections to a recent visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which Beijing claims is its territory.

The spat is the latest flare-up in a four-year-long military standoff between the two countries’ that shows no signs of easing.

A day after Beijing lodged a diplomatic protest over Modi’s visit, India’s foreign ministry spokesman Randhir Jaiswal said that Chinese objections do not “change the reality that Arunachal Pradesh was and will always be an integral part of India.”

Modi visited the Himalayan state on Saturday to inaugurate a two-lane tunnel built at an elevation of 4,000 meters. It will provide a year-round transportation link to the remote region and facilitate movement of soldiers and military equipment to the border state, where both countries have amassed troops. He also announced several other infrastructure projects that include development of roads and power generation.

New Delhi is also racing to complete several other infrastructure projects such as roads and bridges in the Himalayas as tensions with China persist along their 3,500-kilometer-long border.  

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters on Monday that Beijing “strongly deplores and firmly opposes” the Indian leader’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, which it refers to as Zangnan, and that “India has no right to arbitrarily develop the area of Zangnan in China.”

He said that “India’s relevant moves will only complicate the boundary question and disrupt the situation in the border areas between the two countries.”

India dismissed the Chinese protests. “Indian leaders visit Arunachal Pradesh from time to time, as they visit other states of India. Objecting to such visits or India’s developmental projects does not stand to reason,” Jaiswal said.

China has objected to visits by Indian leaders to Arunachal Pradesh in the past, but tensions over the region have intensified in the past year. Last August, India lodged a protest with Beijing over reports that China released a new map showing the state as part of its territory. Last April, Beijing renamed 11 places in the state, including rivers and mountain peaks. 

Relations between the Asian giants plummeted to their lowest point in six decades after their troops clashed on the western side of their border in Ladakh in 2020, killing 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers. 

Since then, each side has deployed tens of thousands of troops along their border, backed by fighter jets, artillery and tanks.

“This tension that we have seen for the last four years has not served either of us well,” Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told a media conclave organized by the Indian Express newspaper on Monday.

“So, the sooner we resolve it, I genuinely believe it is good for both of us. I am still very much committed to finding a fair, reasonable outcome.”

Analysts say efforts by the two sides to de-escalate have largely failed. Although soldiers have pulled back from five friction points, the deployment along the border is still huge.

“Ties between India and China continue to be cold and despite 21 rounds of talks between their military commanders since the 2020 clash to discuss withdrawal of troops, there are no signs of a wider pullback,” according to Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.    
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Islamabad — Prison authorities in Pakistan on Tuesday abruptly banned all meetings and visits to incarcerated former prime minister Imran Khan for two weeks over a “security alert,” drawing a sharp rebuke from his political party and legal counsels.

The 71-year-old former Pakistani leader is serving long prison terms in Rawalpindi, a garrison city adjacent to the capital, Islamabad. Khan was convicted of graft, leaking state secrets while in office, and a fraudulent marriage just days before national elections last month, charges he rejected as political victimization.

His opposition, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), condemned Tuesday’s abrupt “blanket ban” on access to Khan as unlawful and unconstitutional, demanding it be removed immediately.

“When we reached the jail this morning for a routine meeting with Mr. Khan in line with a high court directive, all of a sudden, we were stopped from seeing him and were told that blanket restriction was in place for two weeks on such meetings,” Gohar Ali, the acting PTI chairman, told a news conference in Islamabad.

“The excuse was made that there was a threat of terrorism,” he added, claiming the ban was solely aimed at “isolating their popular” leader from media and supporters, and it would be challenged in a court of law.

An official written directive from the inspector general of prisons in Punjab province, where Rawalpindi is situated, confirmed Tuesday the two-week ban on public visits, meetings, and media interviews within the prison complex.

The directive stated, without elaborating, that “there exist different types of threats to security” of the prison complex and “anti-state terrorist groups…have planned to conduct targeted attacks thereof.” 

The prison facility also houses other senior PTI leaders, including Pakistan’s former foreign minister, Shah Mehmood Qureshi.

Khan, a cricket hero-turned-prime minister, was ousted from office in 2022 through a parliamentary vote of no-confidence and has since faced scores of legal challenges. He denies wrongdoing and accuses Pakistan’s powerful military of being behind his prosecution and other civil and criminal charges. The military rejects allegations it meddles in the country’s political affairs.

The February 8 elections in Pakistan delivered a split mandate. PTI-backed candidates won the most seats in the 336-seat National Assembly or the lower house of parliament but not enough to form a government on their own.

That encouraged the two family-controlled traditional ruling parties, former prime minister Shehbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML-N, and the Pakistan Peoples Party, or PPP, to cobble together a coalition government, enabling Sharif to return to power for a second time.

The elections were marred by widespread rigging allegations, and critics at home and in foreign governments, including the United States, called for an independent probe.

The PTI leadership alleges it won a two-thirds majority, but the election commission manipulated the outcome at the behest of the military to “steal” their mandate” and enable their bitter two rivals, PML-N and PPP, to form the government. The commission denies the accusations.

In the lead up to the polls, Khan’s party was subjected to a military-backed government crackdown, detaining hundreds of its members and candidates and barring the party from organization campaign rallies. PTI’s activities were also banned from mainstream media, and so were Khan’s name or images.

The other political parties, including rival PML-N and PPP, freely conducted their campaigns and dominated media coverage in the build-up to the vote.

Sharif’s 19-member cabinet was sworn in Monday. It included several members from Pakistan’s interim government, which was exclusively tasked under the constitution with holding the elections and remaining neutral.

Pakistani authorities shut down mobile phone and internet services on election day, giving credence to allegations of voter fraud.   
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Taipei, Taiwan — China has launched a new push to repair relations with the EU in recent weeks, deploying its special envoy on Eurasian affairs on a “shuttle diplomacy” tour through several European countries while calling on Brussels to prioritize the common interests rather than differences between the two sides.

At a press conference during China’s annual parliamentary meeting last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pushed back against the European Union’s characterization of China as “a partner, competitor and systemic rival” while reiterating that their common interests “outweigh” differences.

“China and Europe do not have clashing fundamental interests between them, or geopolitical and strategic conflicts,” he said in front of dozens of local and foreign journalists. “The two sides should be characterized rightly as partners, [and] cooperation should be the defining feature of the relationship.”

Some analysts say Wang’s emphasis on “common interests over differences” reflects Beijing’s attempt to use mild diplomacy in a bid to improve relations with Europe.

“Over the last few months, China has been trying to stabilize not only their relationship with the U.S. but also their relations with the EU,” said Justyna Szczudlik, a China analyst and deputy head of research at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.

In light of Brussels’ toughening stance on China, including sanctions imposed on Chinese companies supporting Russia, Szczudlik told VOA in a phone interview that Beijing is aware that the EU has leverage on them.

“China also needs stability because of the economic headwinds and social problems they are facing,” she said.

Despite Beijing’s attempt to reduce tension with European countries through measures such as extending visa-free travel to six other European countries, some experts say the effect of this strategy will be limited.

“While European countries recognize that Beijing is trying to improve relations with the EU, all the old problems still prevail, including uneven trade disputes and China’s stance on the Ukraine war,” Sari Arho Havren, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in Brussels, told VOA by phone.

She said that while Brussels has repeatedly highlighted its trade pain points and other concerns during meetings with Beijing, those messages don’t seem to have registered with the Chinese side. “Nothing is happening [on the Chinese side], so I don’t think Beijing is listening to the EU’s concerns,” Havren said.

Since the beginning of March, Li Hui, the Chinese special envoy on Eurasian affairs, has been conducting “a second round of shuttle diplomacy” across Europe, traveling to Russia, Brussels, Poland, Ukraine, Germany and France.

During his meeting with top European diplomats in Brussels, Li expressed Beijing’s firm opposition to the EU’s inclusion of Chinese companies in its sanctions against Russia while urging the EU to “return to the right track of dialogue and consultation with China,” according to the official readout issued by the Chinese government.

Apart from urging Brussels to lift sanctions on the Chinese companies, the South China Morning Post reported, Li also told European officials that “no discussion on Ukraine’s territorial integrity would take place until the violence stops,” which he claimed could only happen if “the EU stops sending weapons to Ukraine.”

In response, the EU expressed concerns about the large volumes of dual-use and advanced technology items that China has exported to Russia’s military-industrial complex and said China’s position on the Ukraine war “inevitably impacts” the bilateral relations.

Brussels also urged Beijing to “play a constructive role” by calling on Russia to withdraw all forces “from the entire territory of Ukraine” within its internationally recognized borders.

Some experts say the EU’s readout shows they don’t expect Beijing to play a constructive role in facilitating a potential cease-fire and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.

“The EU feels that Li was delivering messages close to Moscow’s propaganda during their meeting, and it would likely make Brussels less willing to open up to the olive branch from China,” Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, an expert on China-EU relations at the National Dong Hwa University in Taiwan, told VOA in a phone interview.

Ferenczy said that while China’s commitment to its partnership with Russia has damaged the EU’s trust in Beijing, Brussels has repeatedly expressed its commitment to “keep channels of communication open” with the Chinese.

Amid Beijing’s renewed diplomatic outreach, the EU has adopted a series of measures that some analysts say signal a toughening stance on its trade relations with China. Last week, the European Commission started customs registration of electric vehicles imported from China, paving the way for a possible imposition of tariffs on Chinese EVs.

Additionally, the EU is moving closer to adopting an anti-forced-labor law, which could ban imports from China’s Xinjiang region, where some research and media reports suggest a large number of Uyghur Muslims are being subjected to forced labor, an accusation Beijing denies.

Szczudlik in Poland said the potential adoption of these trade measures shows that the EU’s handling of its trade relationship with China has gone from “setting up defensive tools” to “being offensive.”

“This process is a good example that the EU is not toothless when it comes to China,” she said.

The EU is preparing to hold its parliamentary election in June, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is running for reelection in 2024, but Ferenczy in Taiwan said she doesn’t expect any big changes in EU-China relations in the short term.

“I expect the European side to remain skeptical of China and push forward the same agenda,” she said, adding that the outcome of the two elections may have some impact on how the EU shapes its policies toward Beijing.
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Taipei — During China’s top legislative meetings this year, which wrapped up Monday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping ordered the military to develop what he called “new quality combat capabilities,” a phrase analysts say highlights a focus on the use of artificial intelligence, high-tech and intelligent warfare. It also could signal, they say, plans to build forces of unmanned ships and submarines to support military operations.

Speaking at a gathering of the People’s Liberation Army or PLA and Armed Police Force delegates to the National People’s Congress late last week about “new quality combat capabilities,” Xi called on the military to deepen its reforms and promote innovation to enhance strategic capabilities in emerging areas.

During the meeting, six representatives from the military spoke about a range of topics from defense capabilities in cyberspace and the application of AI to the development and use of unmanned combat capabilities.

Chung Chieh with the National Policy Foundation in Taipei said that based on Xi’s remarks at the meeting and comments in past speeches, his “new quality combat capability” seems to refer to intelligent combat capabilities.

“His (Xi’s) current goal is to achieve the so-called integrated development … as fast as possible,” Chieh said.

With the use of AI, for example, militaries are looking to speed up the pace of combat, shorten the time it takes for a range of tasks, such as discovering targets, carrying out strikes as well as near instant operations and even simultaneous control of many unmanned combat vehicles, he said. For major military powers, whoever can master the new combat mode first will gain the upper hand.

A report Sunday in the PLA Daily said that following the meeting, lawmakers highlighted the need to make technology a “core capability” to enhance China’s strategic power.

One lawmaker, Hao Jingwen, talked about how drone swarm technologies in air, sea and land have been developed and successively deployed in regional conflicts.

“China needs to realize the important roles, emerging areas and new quality combat capabilities could play in modern warfare, be aware of their development trends, plan battlefield applications of advanced technologies in advance, and conduct active research in fields such as big data, the Internet of Things and AI, so as to be able to win future warfare,” the PLA Daily quoted Hao as saying.

Ying-Yu Lin, an assistant professor at the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, said that while “new quality combat capabilities” seek to draw on scientific and technological capabilities, it’s hard to say how they’d be used to meet Xi’s standards — or how widely used the capabilities might be in the future.

“In fact, China itself is still trying to figure out how to do it, and it cannot clearly point out what its new quality combat capabilities are. If it wants to fight technological warfare in the future, its training methods and the talents it needs will definitely be a little different from the past,” Lin told VOA.

Lin believes that since new quality combat capabilities are based on technological development, it is bound to eliminate the traditional mentality of military training and recruit high-tech professional talents. However, he said, such talents may have better options with foreign companies or private enterprises and may not want to join the PLA.

During the plenary meeting, Xi also emphasized the need to coordinate preparation for maritime military conflicts, the protection of maritime rights and interests, maritime economic development, and to enhance maritime strategic capabilities.

Analysts said Xi’s remarks revealed Beijing’s ambitions to become a sea-power country and control sea communication lines.

Chieh said taken together the remarks about “new quality combat capability” and “preparation for maritime military conflicts” are a sign that unmanned autonomous ships will be a key development project for the PLA.

“Maybe in the future, at sea, or even in distant oceans, the Chinese Communist Party will use a large number of unmanned vehicles, such as unmanned ships and even unmanned submarines, to support its maritime operations and control of sea lines of communication,” he said.  

Adrianna Zhang from VOA’s Mandarin Service contributed to this story.
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