Authorities in flood-hit Pakistan strategically breached the country’s largest freshwater lake on Sunday, a minister said, displacing up to 100,000 people from their homes but saving more densely populated areas from gathering flood water. 

Record monsoon rains and melting glaciers in Pakistan’s northern mountains have brought floods that have affected 33 million people and killed at least 1,290, including 453 children. The inundation, blamed on climate change, is still spreading.

Manchar Lake, which is used for water storage, had already reached dangerous levels, and the increased pressure posed a threat to surrounding areas in the country’s southern Sindh province, Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro said. 

He said about 100,000 people would be affected by the breach in five councils, but it would help save more populated clusters and also help reduce water levels in other, harder-hit areas. 

“By inflicting the breach we have tried to save Sehwan town. Water levels on Johi and Mehar towns in Dadu district would be reduced by this breach in the lake,” Shoro told Reuters on Sunday. 

It was not clear how many of the 100,000 asked to leave their homes would actually do so. 

Aside from historic rainfall, southern Pakistan has had to contend with increased flooding as a surge of water flowed down the Indus river. 

The country has already received nearly three times the 30-year average rainfall in the quarter through August, totaling 390.7 millimeters (15.38 inches). Sindh province, with a population of 50 million, was hardest hit, getting 464% more rain than the 30-year average. 

Being downstream on the Indus river, the southern parts of the country have witnessed swelling river waters flowing from the north. Pakistan’s limited dams and reservoirs are already overflowing and cannot be used to stop downstream flows. 

Tarbela dam in the north-west, has been at capacity — 1,550 feet and 5.8 million acre feet — for weeks, according to NDMA data. 

Downstream in Sindh, barrages are under pressure with the Indus river in high flood level, the NDMA said in its latest situation report. 
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Sri Lanka’s ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who returned home after seven weeks in exile following protests over economic hardships, could face legal action over forced disappearances of activists now that he has been stripped of constitutional immunity, a lawyer said Saturday.

Rajapaksa flew to Colombo around midnight Friday from Thailand and was escorted under military guard to his new home in the capital.

He has no pending court cases because he was protected by constitutional immunity as president. A corruption case against him during his time as a top defense official was withdrawn soon after he was elected in 2019.

However, Rajapaksa will be served a summons next week to appear at the Supreme Court, where his immunity from testifying on the forced disappearance of two young political activists is challenged, said lawyer Nuwan Bopage, who represents the victims’ families. He said Rajapaksa fled the country when he was about to be served a summons in July.

The disappearances took place 12 years ago soon after the end of the country’s long civil war when Rajapaksa was a powerful official at the Defense Ministry under the presidency of his older brother.

At the time, Rajapaksa was accused of overseeing abduction squads that whisked away rebel suspects, critical journalists and activists, many of them never to be seen again. He has previously denied any wrongdoing.

Rajapaksa escaped from his official residence when tens of thousands of people, angry over economic hardships when the country slipped into bankruptcy and faced unprecedented shortages of basic supplies, stormed the building July 9. Days later, he, his wife and two bodyguards flew aboard a military plane to the Maldives. A day later he went to Singapore, and later Thailand.

Sri Lanka has run out of dollars for imports of key supplies, causing an acute shortage of essentials like food items, fuel and critical medicine.

The foreign currency shortage has led the country to default on its foreign loans. Sri Lanka’s total foreign debt exceeds $51 billion of which $28 billion must be repaid by 2027.

The International Monetary Fund on Thursday agreed to provide Sri Lanka $2.9 billion over four years, subject to management approval that will come only if the island nation’s creditors give assurances on debt restructuring.

Economic difficulties led to monthslong street protests, which eventually led to the collapse of the once-powerful Rajapaksa family that had controlled the affairs of the country for the most part of the last two decades. Before Rajapaksa resigned after fleeing, his older brother stepped down as prime minister and three other close family members quit their Cabinet positions.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took over from Rajapaksa, has since cracked down on protests and dismantled their main camp opposite the president’s office.

Some protesters said they were not opposed to his return as long as he faces justice.

“Whether he is president or not, he is a citizen of Sri Lanka and he has the right to live in this country,” said Wijaya Nanda Chandradeva, a retired government employee who had voted for Rajapaksa and then participated in protests to oust him. He said Rajapaksa should be given necessary protection if there is a threat to his safety.

“I reject him because we elected him and he proved himself to be unsuitable,” said Chandradeva.

Bhavani Fonseka of the Center for Policy Alternatives, an independent think tank, said although Rajapaska is not going to be seen favorably, “the anger we saw in July has diminished. But there are still many questions about his role in the economic crisis and the call for accountability is still there.”
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UNICEF says children account for nearly half of the 33 million people affected by the catastrophic floods in Pakistan. Torrential rains have killed more than 1,200 people, including 400 children, and demolished much of the infrastructure vital to children’s well-being.

The U.N. children’s fund estimates the monsoon rains and ensuing flooding have damaged or destroyed at least 18,000 schools across the country, depriving millions of children of access to education. It says hospitals and other infrastructure on which children rely for essential services have been put out of commission.

UNICEF Pakistan Representative Abdullah Fadil said the children affected are among the most vulnerable in the country, adding they live in many of the 72 hardest-hit districts.  

Speaking from the capital, Islamabad, Friday, he said 40% of children already were suffering from stunting, a condition that impairs cognitive development, before the floods hit. He said children in these areas who are without a home, school, or even safe drinking water are at heightened risk of outbreaks of waterborne diseases.

“Diarrhea, cholera, all the diseases you can imagine will hit them quite soon,” he said.  “So, we need to be in place to respond to those as well.  Winter is eight weeks away, so we need to be ready for that as well.”  

Fadil said relief and rescue operations are difficult to carry out because the floods have cut off access to many areas. Nevertheless, he said UNICEF has teams in place in all four affected provinces working to distribute humanitarian supplies.

While lifesaving rescue and relief efforts are indispensable, he said protection for children who are particularly vulnerable in times of crisis is of extreme importance.  He said UNICEF has trained social workers in the field providing psychosocial support.

“We also have set up child-friendly spaces and we have also activated our PSEA, or prevention of sexual exploitation and abuse, mechanisms to ensure that not only children, but vulnerable communities are not exploited through the provision of support,” Fadil said.  

The floods have displaced large numbers of families and many children have become separated from their parents or caregivers. Fadil said one of the most important tasks ahead is identifying, protecting, and ultimately reuniting the children with their families.
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A protest by a group of HIV-positive people in New Delhi, demanding a regular supply of life-saving antiretroviral therapy drugs across the country, ended this week, after 42 days, as the government has reportedly resumed the interrupted supply of the drugs. 

Around 2.3 million people are infected with HIV in India. Since 2004, the government has been providing free antiviral therapy, known as ART, to HIV-positive people in India.  The therapy stops replication of the virus, helping patients live longer and cutting the risk of transmission of the virus to others. Around 1.5 million HIV patients depend on the free government-supplied ART drugs.

The demonstration, at the central office of the Health Ministry’s National AIDS Control Organization, or NACO, which manages HIV and AIDS prevention and control programs in India, began in July, after activists claimed the supply of the drugs became irregular, with many medicines no longer available in centers. The activists said many HIV-positive people were only getting drugs for three, four, or five days and others were not getting the drugs at all. 

HIV activist Hari Shankar, a leader of the Delhi protest, said this week after withdrawing from the protest that the authorities had resumed the supply of ART drugs to each patient for a month, after a gap of three or four months.

“Our network informed us this week that the ART centers across the country have begun handing out at least one month’s supply of drugs to each patient. They have fulfilled our main demand,” Shankar, a member of the HIV/AIDS activist group Delhi Network of Positive People, or DNP Plus, told VOA Thursday.

In an emailed statement, the health ministry told the VOA last month that there was “no stock-out of drugs” and there were “no instances of disruptions or non-availability of treatment services or ARV medicines at the national and state levels.”

Over 90% of HIV-positive people receiving ART cannot afford to buy the drugs from the market and they were suffering badly because of the crisis of the supply from the ART centers, the activists said during the protest. They also expressed concerns that the drug crisis could lead to many patients becoming fatally ill. 

Many HIV-positive people have expressed relief after the NACO resumed its regular supply of ART drugs this week. 

“During the crisis, in July and August, I took my daily ART doses after buying the drugs with money borrowed from relatives. I cannot afford to buy them with my meager earnings. I began worrying that very soon I would have to skip my doses,” Khelen, a 45-year-old HIV-positive man, who uses one name and works as a porter in Imphal, the capital of the northeastern state of Manipur, told VOA. 

“Now I have heard this week that there is no stock-out of the drugs at the ART centers starting this week. This is truly very happy news for me.” 

DNP Plus founder Loon Gangte said that despite resistance from different quarters he and his colleagues had to continue their protest until the authorities met their demand.

“Pressure came from many sides to make us withdraw our protest. But we were very concerned about the health of our hundreds of thousands of HIV-positive brothers and sisters in the country and so we stood our ground and kept insisting that we would not call off our protest until our main demand is met,” Gangte told VOA.

“Now we have happily ended our protest as soon as the ART centers across the country have resumed the regular monthly supply of the drugs to all patients.”
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U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres Friday renewed his call for Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers to allow teenage girls to resume secondary education, saying “girls belong in schools.”

“Girls in Afghanistan continue to be locked out of the classroom,” he said on Twitter late Friday. 

The Islamist group banned female students above the sixth grade from resuming classes across most Afghan provinces since they reclaimed power a year ago. The Taliban called it a temporary suspension but have refused to lift the ban, despite international pressure.

“Girls in Afghanistan continue to be locked out of the classroom. This is an unjustifiable violation of equal rights that damages the entire country. Girls belong in school,” Guterres said on Twitter.

Critics say the ban has denied an entire generation access to education in Afghanistan, with devastating consequences for high school-aged girls and their families. 

The Taliban had imposed a complete ban on girls’ education when they were previously in power from 1996 to 2001.

The hardline insurgent group took control of Afghanistan in August of last year when all U.S.-led foreign forces withdrew from the country, marking an end to nearly two decades of war with the Taliban. The internationally recognized government’s security forces collapsed in the face of nationwide insurgent attacks.

The Taliban have brought security to much of Afghanistan, but their curbs on women’s rights and on civil liberties have drawn global denunciation, leading to the country’s international isolation. 

Taliban leaders have defended their polices and restrictions on women as in line with Afghan culture and Sharia, or Islamic law, dismissing international calls for reforms as an interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.

An already bad humanitarian crisis and the growing economic turmoil stemming from the Taliban takeover have plunged most of the poverty-stricken country’s estimated 40 million population into deeper poverty.

New Afghan envoy 

Guterres late Friday announced the appointment of Kyrgyzstan’s former president, Roza Otunbayeva, as his new special envoy for Afghanistan. She succeeds Deborah Lyons of Canada as head of the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, known as UNAMA.

Otunbayeva will oversee U.N. humanitarian operations and dealings with the Taliban. She served as president of Kyrgyzstan from 2010 to 2011.

U.N. humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths warned the Security Council August 29 that Afghanistan faces deepening poverty, with 6 million people suffering severe food shortages stemming from humanitarian, economic, climate and financial crises.

“We worry” those figures will soon worsen as winter weather sends already high fuel and food prices skyrocketing, Griffiths said.
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Sri Lanka’s deposed former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa returned to the country Friday, an airport official said, seven weeks after he fled amid the island’s worst-ever economic crisis.

Rajapaksa was festooned with flowers by a welcoming party of ministers and politicians as he disembarked at the main international airport, the official added — in a sign of his enduring influence in the Indian Ocean nation critics say he led to ruin.

“There was a rush of government politicians to garland him as he came out of the aircraft,” the official told AFP.

Rajapaksa fled Sri Lanka under military escort in mid-July after unarmed crowds stormed his official residence, following months of angry demonstrations blaming him for the nation’s unprecedented economic crisis.

He sent in his resignation from Singapore before flying on to Thailand, from where he had petitioned his successor Ranil Wickremesinghe to facilitate his return.

The 73-year-old leader arrived from Bangkok via Singapore on a commercial flight, ending his 52-day self-imposed exile.

“He has been living in a Thai hotel as a virtual prisoner and was keen to return,” a defense official, who asked not to be named, told AFP.

“We have just created a new security division to protect him after his return,” the official added.

“The unit comprises elements from the army and police commandos.”

Opposition politicians have accused Wickremesinghe of shielding the once-powerful Rajapaksa family.

Sri Lanka’s constitution guarantees bodyguards, a vehicle and housing for former presidents, including Gotabaya and his elder brother and fellow ex-president Mahinda.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation ended his presidential immunity, and rights activists said they would press for his arrest on multiple charges, including his alleged role in the 2009 assassination of prominent newspaper editor Lasantha Wickrematunge.

“We welcome his decision to return so that we can bring him to justice for the crimes he has committed,” said Tharindu Jayawardhana, a spokesperson for the Sri Lanka Young Journalists’ Association.

Rajapaksa also faces charges in a court in the U.S. state of California over Wickrematunge’s murder and the torture of Tamil prisoners at the end of the island’s traumatic civil war in 2009.

Tight security

Singapore declined to extend Rajapaksa’s short-term visa and he travelled to Thailand in August, but authorities in Bangkok instructed him not to step out of his hotel for his own safety.

Rajapaksa’s youngest brother, Basil, the former finance minister, met with Wickremesinghe last month and requested protection to allow the deposed leader to return.

On Friday police deployed plainclothes officers and armed guards outside a government residence allocated to Rajapaksa in Colombo ahead of his arrival.

Security at his private home was also stepped up, officials said, adding that he was expected to first visit the family residence.

Sri Lanka has endured months of shortages of crucial goods including food, fuel and medicines, along with lengthy electricity blackouts and skyrocketing inflation after running out of foreign currency to finance essential imports.

The coronavirus pandemic dealt a hammer blow to the island’s tourism industry and dried up remittances from Sri Lankans working abroad — both key foreign exchange earners.

Rajapaksa, who was elected in 2019 promising “vistas of prosperity and splendor,” saw his popularity nosedive as hardships multiplied for the country’s 22 million people.

His government was accused of introducing unsustainable tax cuts that drove up government debt and exacerbated the crisis.

Wickremesinghe was elected by parliament to see out the remainder of Rajapaksa’s term. He has since cracked down on street protests and arrested leading activists.

The government defaulted on its $51 billion foreign debt in April and the central bank forecasts a record 8% GDP contraction this year.

After months of negotiations, the International Monetary Fund agreed on Thursday to a conditional $2.9 billion bailout package to repair Sri Lanka’s battered finances.
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Project Dynamo’s Case Manager Masouda Noorzad interviewed by VOA’s Nilofar Mughal via Skype, Aug. 31, 2022.
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Project Dynamo’s Co-Founder Bryan Stern interviewed by VOA’s Nilofar Mughal via Skype, Aug. 31, 2022.
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Weeks of catastrophic flooding in Pakistan, triggered by climate change-driven erratic monsoon rains, have raised fears of acute food shortages and further spread of waterborne deadly diseases in the country of about 220 million people.  

Pakistani officials estimate a third of the South Asian nation, an area the size of the United Kingdom, has been left underwater by the flooding, destroying almost half of its croplands.  

The United Nations said Friday that the torrential rains “have broken a century-long record,” dumping more than five times the 30-year average for rainfall in some provinces.  

This has caused widespread flooding and landslides, with severe repercussions for human lives, property and infrastructure, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.  

“Initial estimates on the ground suggest that at least 3.6 million acres of crops/orchards across the country have already been affected. The livestock sector has also experienced severe losses, with over 733,000 livestock reportedly killed,” it said. 

Since mid-June, when seasonal rains began, more than 1,200 people have been killed, including 416 children, and at least 6,000 others have been injured. More than 1.1 million houses have been washed away or damaged, and 33 million residents in 80 hardest-hit districts will require some form of assistance, according to Pakistani officials. 

Nearly 500,000 people are in relief camps, while many more are displaced and being hosted by other households. 

The Pakistan military said Friday that its rescue teams had evacuated an additional 2,000 people from calamity-hit districts, bringing to 50,000 the total number of individuals moved to safer locations since rescue operations began. 

Southwestern Baluchistan, southern Sindh and parts of central Punjab provinces have been badly hit by the floods.  

The U.N. Population Fund says at least 650,000 pregnant women and girls, 73,000 of whom are expected to deliver in the next month, are among the victims. It says many of the women lack access to health care facilities and support they need to deliver their children safely. 

“Most births in Pakistan happen at home, and with almost 1 million homes destroyed, many women don’t know where they will deliver their babies,” Human Rights Watch said Friday.

“Pakistan’s disastrous floods highlight not only how the effects of the climate crisis are unevenly shared geographically, but also the disproportionate impact on women and girls,” the group said. 

Fears of more child deaths 

Abdullah Fadil, the Pakistan representative of the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF), said Friday that at least 18,000 schools had been damaged or destroyed in the floods, which have affected an estimated 16 million children, including 3.4 million who need humanitarian support. 

“Many children are now at heightened risk, without a home, school or even safe drinking water,” Fadil said. “There is therefore a risk of many more child deaths. And the situation will only continue to deteriorate as winter is just eight weeks away in some parts of the country.” 

He said that communities were increasingly having to resort to open defecation without adequate sanitation, putting them at high risk of contracting diseases such as diarrhea, cholera, dengue and malaria. 

Pakistani and U.N. officials said relief and rescue operations were still hard to conduct, noting that more than 5,000 kilometers of roads and 243 bridges had been damaged or destroyed by floodwaters.  

“Yet lifesaving rescue and relief efforts are indispensable, and UNICEF is distributing humanitarian supplies in all affected provinces,” Fadil said. The supplies include drinking water; hygiene kits; medicines; water purification tablets; vaccines; therapeutic food for children, pregnant and lactating women; and mosquito nets.

“The sad reality is, as we have seen all around the world, climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and more destructive, and it is children who are too often paying the price.”

Fadil noted that Pakistan ranks 14th out of 163 countries on UNICEF’s Children’s Climate Risk Index, placing the country in the “extremely high risk” category in the index. 

‘Monsoon on steroids’   

The U.N. has appealed for $160 million in aid to help tackle what it said was an “unprecedented climate catastrophe.”   

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will arrive in Pakistan on September 9 to visit flood-hit areas.  

“The Pakistani people are facing a monsoon on steroids,” Guterres said while speaking at the launch of the U.N. flash funding appeal on Tuesday. 

“Let’s stop sleepwalking towards the destruction of our planet by climate change. Today, it’s Pakistan. Tomorrow, it could be your country,” he warned. 

Weather officials forecast more rains and flash flooding during September, raising fears that wheat-growing famers would be unable to have their croplands free of floodwaters by early October when they undertake planting.  

“If floodwaters recede by that time, sowing might be possible, but if floods continued to inundate areas in Sindh and Punjab, then it’s highly likely that critical wheat shortage may occur in Pakistan,” said Mohsin Hafeez, the country representative for the International Water Management Institute.  

“Such a situation may force the [Pakistan] government to import more wheat from the global market, which will add pressure on the existing import bill.” Hafeez told VOA that global wheat prices have risen since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, and a low crop output in Pakistan would add to the financial troubles facing the cash-starved Pakistani government.

Meanwhile, more humanitarian relief flights arrived on Friday from countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. China, the United States, France, Iran, Britain, Azerbaijan, Norway and Kazakhstan are among the countries that have provided or pledged flood relief aid to Pakistan.

The U.S. military said Friday that it was sending an assessment team to Pakistan to determine what support it could offer through the U.S. Agency for International Development as part of Washington’s response to the flooding crisis.

General Michael Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, said in a statement that he discussed the matter by phone with Pakistan’s army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, and expressed “his condolences for the people of Pakistan.”
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U.N. agencies are quickly mobilizing resources and staff to assess the damage and provide aid needed to assist millions of people made homeless and destitute by flooding in Pakistan.

Extensive rains, which have pummeled Pakistan since June, have inundated the country, putting a third of it under water. The United Nations said more than 1,100 people are known to have died, over 6,000 have been injured, 33 million have been left homeless and hundreds of thousands of buildings and infrastructure damaged or destroyed.

Aid agencies said bridges have been destroyed and roads turned into mud, cutting off access to many people in distress. The World Health Organization warns the floods are having a catastrophic impact on the health situation.

WHO representative in Pakistan Palitha Mahipala said major health risks are unfolding and will continue to unfold in the months to come as more rain is forecast. Speaking in the capital, Islamabad, he warned that people are ill-equipped to fend off disease outbreaks in camps lacking safe water and sanitary conditions.

“Major health concerns already reported with the spread of diarrheal diseases, skin infections, respiratory tract infections, malaria, and dengue fever,” Mahipala said. “Rains continue and projections are that floods will worsen further over the coming days, with even greater humanitarian and public health impact.”

Mahipala said there is an urgent need to scale up disease surveillance, restore damaged health facilities and ensure sufficient medicine and health supplies are obtained. He said mental health assistance and psychosocial help must be made available for affected communities.

He said the monsoon rains and floods have damaged and destroyed nearly 2,000 public and private health facilities. The loss of the clinics will seriously affect the ability of sick and injured people to get treatment they need.

Mahipala said shortages of health workers and limited health supplies also are disrupting health services and increasing the health risks for children and pregnant and lactating women.
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Worldwide, coastal saltwater is creeping farther and farther inland, tainting the land and water with enough salt to kill crops. In Asia, saltwater intrusion is making it nearly impossible for some farmers to grow the region’s staple food. Elise Cutts has more.
Videographer: Sun Narin, Vietnamese Stringer in Vietnam
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India has launched its first domestically produced aircraft carrier as it seeks to counter China’s growing naval power.

In addition, the country, heavily dependent on foreign military equipment, wants to expand its defense manufacturing capabilities.   

Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the 262-meter-long, 60-meter-wide carrier, called Vikrant or “courageous,” at a ceremony in the southern state of Kerala Friday. Its launching is part of events commemorating India’s 75th year of independence.  

Underlining India’s entry into a select group of countries capable of building such a vessel, Modi said that the Vikrant has filled the country with a new confidence.

“It’s a historic day and landmark achievement,” he said. “It is an example of the government’s thrust to make India’s defense sector self-reliant.” 

Modi’s government has put emphasis on building a domestic defense hardware industry to reduce the country’s huge dependence on foreign weaponry – India is among the world’s largest arms importers.  More than two dozen naval ships and submarines are being built in the country’s shipyards. 

The navy said that the new warship, built at a cost of $2.5 billion, can carry a crew of around 1,600 and operate a fleet of 30 aircraft, including fighter jets and helicopters. More than 75% of its components are domestically produced. 

Built and tested over 17 years, it has now completed a year of sea trials. However, defense analyst Rahul Bedi told VOA that the aircraft carrier will not be fully operational until the end of next year due to a shortage of jets.  

“It does not have suitable aircraft at the moment. India plans to buy these either from France or the United States,” he said. “For the time being it will have to rely on Russian-made aircraft that operate on its other aircraft carrier.” 

The new aircraft carrier is India’s second — the first one was built in the former Soviet Union.

India has focused its military on Himalayan border disputes with Pakistan and China. However, boosting its naval capabilities has also become a priority as concerns intensify about Beijing’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean, where it has built ports in Pakistan and Sri Lanka as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, giving it a strategic advantage close to Indian shores.  

India and the United States had recently raised objections with Colombo when a Chinese naval ship docked at the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka.  

New Delhi is also working as part of the Quad – a grouping of the United States, India, Japan and Australia – to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, where China’s maritime claims have triggered disputes with neighbors including the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan and South Korean.  

“The security concerns of the Indo-Pacific and the Indian Ocean region were ignored earlier. But today this area is a major defense priority for the country,” Modi said. “So, we are working in every direction, from increasing the budget for the navy to increasing its capability.”  

In recent years, military strategists have pointed to the increased capacity and capability of China’s rapidily modernizing navy. China has a huge naval fleet that includes three aircraft carriers — the third was launched recently. It also has some 355 ships, according to the U.S. Defense Department. 

Modi also unveiled a new naval flag on Friday that replaced a colonial era ensign of Saint George’s Cross with the royal seal of a Hindu warrior king, Chhatrapati Shivaji.
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Immediately after British American writer Salman Rushdie was stabbed in New York on August 12, a decades-old fatwa given by the founder of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, became the buzzword as the prima facie cause for the attack.

The 24-year-old attacker has not cited the fatwa as his motive for the stabbing, only that he did not like Rushdie and perceived The Satanic Verses, Rushdie’s controversial book, of which he reportedly had read only a few pages, as insulting Islam.

Despite several statements by Iranian officials, including a 1998 statement by former President Mohammad Khatami that the Islamic Republic was not supporting Khomeini’s fatwa to kill Rushdie, it is still believed to be in force, primarily because of the influence of the man who issued it.

“Khomeini’s fatwa carries immense potency because he’s not only followed but revered by the global Shia community,” Khaled Beydoun, a law professor at Wayne State University, told VOA.

A fatwa can be the opinion of a mufti, or scholar of Islamic laws, like Khomeini, or an official pronouncement by an Islamic institution.

“A fatwa can be about a simple personal matter such as missing a prayer, or it could be about a controversial issue such as embryo cloning or transgender operation,” said Jonathan Brown, a professor of Islamic studies at Georgetown University.

The enforcement of a fatwa depends largely on who the mufti is, rather than what its contents are.

There are also other limitations.

“A fatwa issued in Afghanistan may have some weightage there … but a religious leader in America pronouncing something has very limited impact, because Muslims live in a non-Muslim society where there are laws, and the laws say that you cannot go and kill people simply because someone issued a fatwa,” said Akbar Ahmed, the Ibn Khaldun chair of Islamic studies at American University. “So, immediately, you have [a] block in implementing such a fatwa.”

Fatwa is not law

For centuries, thousands of fatwas have been issued by numerous scholars and institutions. There are fatwas against Western colonialism, nuclear weapons, tobacco, terrorism and suicide bombing. A 2008 fatwa was issued by a Pakistani religious scholar against Pakistan’s former President Asif Ali Zardari for his alleged flirting with Sarah Palin, then a U.S. vice presidential candidate. There are also fatwas in support of vaccination, singing and women’s rights.

“A fatwa is not a legal decree. A legal decree is issued by a court,” Ahmed said.

But some fatwas carry as much weight as the law in a country.

Fatwas issued by the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia or by the Supreme Leader of Iran are enforceable as laws, and fatwas declared by state muftis in Malaysia are published in the official newspaper.

“There is no equivalent Muslim institution to the Vatican and the pope in Roman Catholicism. Fatwas only have the relevance of the governmental body and religious institution that seek to enforce them. This in no way diminishes how a fatwa can become important as part of geopolitical culture wars, and in the case of Salman Rushdie, tragically led to real harm,” Hatim El-Hibri, assistant professor of media at George Mason University, told VOA.

Absent endorsement from a government or when a mufti has no followers, a fatwa remains the opinion of an individual.

In 1996 and 1998, al-Qaida founder Osama bin Laden reportedly signed two fatwas declaring Islamic jihad against the United States.

No Muslim government endorsed al-Qaida’s fatwas, but there were several other fatwas against al-Qaida itself and terrorism that are supported by many Islamic scholars and official entities in several Muslim-majority countries.

Need for fatwas

The origins of fatwas go back to the early days of Islam when Muslim leaders responded to questions about the religion’s take on various mundane matters.

“After the Prophet Muhammad, when questions arose, they were answered through fatwas by the Companions [of the Prophet],” said Georgetown’s Brown, adding that the practice has evolved over the centuries as an Islamic custom.

“Fatwa is not unique and distinct only to Islam,” said Beydoun of Wayne State. Leaders of other faith groups also offer religious opinions about new issues that are not already answered by their religions or issues that need religious clarification, he said.

While some fatwas have raised concerns, as they herald far wider security and human rights consequences, through others, social and political reforms and progressive ideas have been propagated in various Muslim communities, experts say.

“To view fatwas with negative connotations will be part and parcel of the broader cultural Islamophobia that we live in,” Beydoun said.

Khomeini’s 1989 fatwa has received global condemnation across religious communities, and many Muslim writers and activists have condemned the attack on Rushdie. But whether it still propels individuals to act upon it is open for debate.
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U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is stopping – with a few exceptions – the temporary relocation of Afghans to the United States and focusing on reuniting immediate family members with pathways to permanent residency, according to a senior administration official.

The policy revision follows criticism by some lawmakers, refugee organizations and veterans groups that the administration failed to properly plan the evacuation of Afghans at risk of Taliban retribution when it pulled the last U.S. troops out of Afghanistan a year ago.

The administration says the evacuation – marred by chaos at Kabul airport and a suicide bombing that killed 13 U.S. service members and more than 170 Afghans – was a success, with nearly 90,000 Afghans resettled in the United States in one of the largest operations of its kind.

The administration’s “commitment to our Afghan allies is enduring,” the senior administration official said while briefing reporters on Wednesday on changes to the relocation policy. “This commitment does not have an end date.”

The revised policy, dubbed Enduring Welcome, begins on Oct. 1.

Under the changes, the official said, the United State will stop – with a few exceptions – admitting Afghans on humanitarian parole, a special program that grants temporary entry but no pathway to lawful permanent residence.

The revised policy, the official said, will focus on relocating to the United States immediate family members of U.S. citizens, green card holders and Afghans with Special Immigration Visas (SIVs) granted to those at risk of Taliban retaliation because they worked for the U.S. government.

Family members admitted from those categories will have “durable, long-term immigration status,” allowing them to “more quickly settle and integrate into their new communities,” the official said.

“We know family reunification remains a really high priority for Afghans themselves and for the communities who care about them and for advocates across the country, veterans groups as well,” said the official. “It is for us, too.”

The revised policy follows months of talks between the administration and the AfghanEvac coalition of groups that help evacuate and resettle Afghans in the United States.

“It’s a massive deal for us,” said Shawn VanDiver, the coalition head, adding that the government still needs to improve processing SIV applications and increase relocation flights.
…

Pakistani health officials on Thursday reported an outbreak of waterborne diseases in areas hit by recent record-breaking flooding, as authorities stepped up efforts to ensure the provision of clean drinking water to hundreds of thousands of people who lost their homes in the disaster.

Diarrhea, skin diseases and eye infections are spreading at relief camps set up by the government across the country. More than 90,000 diarrhea cases were reported from one of the worst-hit provinces, Sindh, in the past 24 hours, according to a report released by the health officials.

The latest development comes a day after Pakistan and the World Health Organization raised concern over the spread of waterborne diseases among flood victims. Pakistan blames climate change for unusually early and heavy monsoon rains, which since June have caused flash floods that have killed 1,191 people and affected 33 million people. About a million homes have also been damaged or destroyed.

Floodwaters continued to recede in most of the country, but many districts in southern Sindh province remained underwater.

Nearly half a million flood-displaced people are living in relief camps. In Sindh province, thousands of medical camps have been set up in flood-stricken areas to treat victims, said Dr. Azra Fazal Pechuho, the provincial health minister. Mobile medical units have also been deployed. The World Health Organization says it is increasing surveillance for acute diarrhea, cholera and other communicable diseases and providing medical supplies to health facilities.

Doctors say initially they were initially seeing mostly patients traumatized by the flooding but are now treating thousands of people suffering from diarrhea, skin infections and other waterborne ailments. Many pregnant women living in flood-affected areas were also exposed to risks.

According to the U.N. Population Fund, 6.4 million flood victims in Pakistan need humanitarian assistance. It said about 650,000 pregnant women in flood-affected areas, including 73,000 expected to deliver in the next month, need maternal health services.

Meanwhile, rescuers, backed by the military, continued operations to evacuate marooned people to safer places. Rescuers are mostly using boats, but helicopters are also flying to evacuate stranded people from those areas where bridges and roads were destroyed, making it difficult to evacuate people and deliver food to them.

Days ago, Pakistan and the United Nations issued an appeal for $160 million in emergency funding to Pakistan. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif on Thursday took to Twitter, thanking the United Arab Emirates for delivering the first tranche of relief goods worth $50 million. He also thanked the United States for announcing $30 million in aid.

So far, several countries, including Turkey, China, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have sent planeloads of aid to flood victims in Pakistan. According to initial government estimates, the devastation caused $10 billion in damages. 
…

The International Monetary Fund said Thursday it has reached a staff-level agreement with Sri Lanka to provide $2.9 billion over four years to help salvage the country from its economic crisis.

An IMF team visiting Sri Lanka said in a statement that the preliminary agreement is subject to approval from the agency’s management and executive board “contingent on the implementation by the authorities of prior actions, and on receiving financing assurances from Sri Lanka’s official creditors and making a good faith effort to reach a collaborative agreement with private creditors.”

Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic crisis in recent memory with acute shortages of essentials like fuel, medicines and food because of serious foreign currency shortages.

The island nation has suspended repayment of nearly $7 billion in foreign debt due for this year. The country’s total foreign debt amounts to more than $51 billion of which $28 billion has to be repaid by 2028.

The IMF said Sri Lanka’s economy is expected to contract by 8.7% and inflation has exceeded 60%.

“Against this backdrop, the authorities’ program, supported by the Fund, would aim to stabilize the economy, protect the livelihoods of the Sri Lankan people, and prepare the ground for economic recovery and promoting sustainable and inclusive growth,” it said.
…

Flash floods, cloudbursts and unusually high temperatures in Jammu and Kashmir are blamed for a loss of livestock, damage to infrastructure and dozens of deaths in what are seen as manifestations of global warming and human-caused climate change.

In one incident, 16 people died in a flash flood during an annual Hindu pilgrimage in Indian-administered Kashmir. Sonam Lotus, director of the meteorological department of Jammu and Kashmir, said in an interview, “even though we monitor the weather constantly, sometimes it is beyond our control.”

The region witnessed the heaviest rainfall between May and July, resulting in a dozen flash floods in the environmentally fragile valley, which damaged agricultural crops and other assets. The Kashmir highway, the entrance to the valley from central India, has frequently been closed by landslides and shooting stones brought on by heavy rains.

“We have analyzed that there has been rapid temperature increase in the valley from the past 40 years, 1980 to 2020. The max temperature is showing a higher increase as compared to minimum temperature,” explained Sumira Nazir Zaz, a faculty member at the University of Kashmir Department of Geoinformatics.

Zaz said weather stations have recorded the most significant temperature increases at higher elevations, such as Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Qazigund, while an urban island effect has driven up temperatures at Srinagar, the regional capital. She also noted increased precipitation, especially in winter, even though the valley is far from any ocean.

An 80-year-old resident of Kashmir, Abdul Salam Bhat, told VOA that he has watched temperatures rise over the decades. “Rarely did we use electric ceiling fans during the summer night. However, nowadays ceiling fans won’t cool the room. Air conditioners are becoming a new norm in the valley,” Bhat said.

Across India, floods have become more common in recent years, claiming the lives of about 6,000 people and causing damage estimated at $7.4 billion over the past three years. This amount is approximately equal to one-third of the India’s infrastructure budget for its roads and highways.

In June this year, after four days of nonstop rain, the Jhelum River in Kashmir reached the danger mark in some places, bringing back memories of a devastating 2014 flood that claimed 300 lives and destroyed billions of dollars’ worth of property.

The water level in the major rivers and tributaries surged significantly, flooding several low-lying districts in Srinagar and elsewhere in Kashmir. As a result, many Srinagar residents shifted to the upper floors until the rains ended after four days.

Official records reported by a local media site showed that Jammu and Kashmir experienced nine extreme weather events between May and July, including flash floods and cloudbursts.

The extreme weather has not spared livestock. According to the region’s sheep husbandry department, the valley’s grasslands provide summer shelter for about 2 million sheep. However, herders in the highlands of south Kashmir suffered severe losses this year as a result of the unusual occurrence of snow in June.

The shepherds in these areas confirm that heavy snowfall between June 19 and June 22 blanketed the region’s green meadows with a layer of snow 2 to 3 feet deep. The authorities in the region declared the heavy snowfall as a state-specific natural disaster.

A resident in the village of Zampathri, who takes his livestock to higher elevations for grazing in the summer, told VOA that he used to take his sheep to an area known as Gaadar but in recent years has had to venture farther because of reduced vegetation in the area.

“The pastoralist community belong to poor communities and are most vulnerable to climate-related disasters,” wrote researchers Sajad Ahmad Mir and Maliha Batool in a paper titled “Impact of Climate Change on Gujjar and Bakarwal Communities of Jammu and Kashmir.” They said the convergence of land-use change and climate insecurity “is impairing the resilience of various social and ecological systems.”

Faizan Arif Keng, an independent weather forecaster who has become popular on social media, told VOA he believes authorities need to prepare for additional climate change to come.

“Floods, droughts, lightning strikes, cloudbursts, snowstorms — everything is happening. Extreme events are going to increase furthermore,” he said. “Local and global actions are required to guard our planet and ourselves from any catastrophes. There is an immediate need to take climate change seriously.”

Zaz said that weather patterns originating in the North Atlantic Ocean have weakened since 1980, contributing to the weather anomalies. “Precipitation in the form of snow has decreased and rain has increased. Land use and cover of Kashmir valley has changed rapidly, affecting the runoff and causing rapid urban flows, and as a result we have increased floods.”

The regional government says it is currently revising its plan for climate action, which cites climate change as “a serious threat to the species diversity, habitats, forests, wildlife, fisheries and the water resources in the region.”

A veteran hiker, Shafkat Masoodi, told VOA he has noted the disappearance of glaciers over the decades in several mountain areas surrounding the valley. Just recently, he said, “We were in a place that used to be surrounded by a glacier, however, to our utter surprise we couldn’t find one and had to trek for six hours to get some water.”

Like many other trekkers, he said, he has learned to pay closer attention to the weather forecasts before setting out on a hike. “Earlier we used not to, but now we check the weather forecast before we plan for a trek as extreme weather could be life-threatening deep inside the woods.”
…

Rubina Bibi was cooking food for her family in her mudbrick home in her village in northwest Pakistan when the nearby mosque blared a warning from its loudspeaker. Flood waters were coming, it announced, everyone should move to safer ground.

She and her family didn’t take it seriously. There had been flooding in their village of Majooki more than a decade ago, and they hadn’t needed to flee.

This time, however, it was on a different scale entirely. Days of torrential rains had sent a massive surge of water down the nearby Swat River — so powerful that on that day, last Friday, it broke through a reservoir that usually controls the river’s flow.

When the water hit Majooki hours after the warning, it poured into the house where the 53-year-old Bibi lived with her two sons, a daughter-in-law and her grandchildren.

One of her grandchildren, 5-month-old Dua Humayun, was sleeping on a cot in the house’s courtyard. In an instant, the baby was swept away by the rushing waters. It was too fast for anyone to even think of saving her. She was gone.

Pakistani officials say the flooding that has hit across the country over the past weeks is like nothing they have seen before. It has been caused by unprecedented heavy and unrelenting monsoon rains, fueled they say by the world’s changing climate.

Millions in villages, towns and cities around Pakistan were caught off guard by the swiftness and power of the waters.

Bibi spoke to The Associated Press at a tent camp set up in a sports complex in the city of Charsadda for hundreds of people left homeless by the deluge. She spoke of her granddaughter’s death with composure, but inside the tent, her daughter-in-law could be heard sobbing.

“The floodwaters entered our house suddenly. We didn’t have time to take anything as we were leaving,” Bibi said. She, her sons and daughter-in-law carried her surviving grandchildren tightly as they waded through waist-deep water out of their home. They then walked in the stifling summer heat for four kilometers (2.5 miles) to Charsadda.

More than 1,160 people have been killed in flooding across Pakistan since mid-June, hundreds of them in the major surge that began last week. More than 33 million people in the country of 220 million have been affected, including those left homeless by the destruction of more than 1 million homes. Pakistani officials have put the economic damage at some $10 billion, including everything from collapsed bridges and roads to destroyed crops.

The district around Charsadda has been one of the hardest hit areas. The Swat River meets the Kabul River nearby, and the nearby farmlands are laced with tributaries — all of them still surging with swollen waters despite a pause in rain in recent days.

Authorities have warned that more rains are expected in coming weeks.

The city of Charsadda, home to more than 120,000, has been trashed. On Tuesday, some neighborhoods remained flooded with water shin-deep or higher.

Residents whose homes still stood took out their soggy blankets and furniture and other possessions to dry. Others surveyed wrecked mud-brick or shoddy cinder-block homes with collapsed walls and roofs. Deep, thick mud coated everything.

Bibi’s home village of Majooki, once home to 2,500 people, remains under waist-deep water. The rice and wheat that residents stored in their homes to meet the year’s need have been ruined. Hundreds of thousands of villages across Pakistan lost crops.

Many of Majooki’s residents are now at the tent camp in Charsadda’s Abdul Wali Khan Sports Complex. Hundreds of tents stood in rows, and children lay inside on plastic mats with what few belongings they took with them piled nearby. Some eat rice or other staples being distributed by the government.

“It is very hot here. We have a tent and a plastic mattress, but there is no fan. We are not getting enough food,” Bibi said.

A widow, Bibi had worked washing clothes and cleaning in homes, and one of her sons was a construction worker. Now they are without work for the foreseeable future. She and others from the village have not been able to return and have no idea what remains of their homes.

“We are facing a lot of difficulties. We want more help so that we can start our life again,” Bibi said.

The floods’ devastation has hit Pakistan as it is already struggling to keep its crisis-stricken economy from collapse. The government is severely strapped for cash, and inflation has been spiraling. The International Monetary Fund gave a boost this week by releasing a long-awaited, $1.17 billion tranche of a bailout negotiated in 2019, but only after the government promised painful austerity measures.

The United Nations on Tuesday launched an emergency appeal for $160 million in aid to help flood victims. Planeloads of food, medical supplies and other aid have arrived in recent days. But Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif warned on Tuesday that any delay in the provision of help would be disastrous.

At the sport complex tent camp, another Majooki resident, Saifoor Khan, recalled how he too ignored the call to flee that came from the mosque loudspeaker that day.

Majooki was hit by the last major floods in 2010, but in that case no houses were destroyed and no one fled, he said. When the waters hit on Friday, the 50-year-old taxi driver, his wife and his seven children also had to wade their way to safety.

“I have no idea for how many days and weeks we will have to live in these tents,” he said.

“I pray that no one faces such an ordeal.”
…

India and China are among several countries taking part in Russia’s weeklong joint military drills scheduled to get underway on Thursday in the east of the country, according to Russia’s state-owned news agency Tass. 

While India has previously taken part in multinational military drills in Russia — an Indian contingent was part of Zapad military exercises held in September 2021 — analysts say its participation in the “Vostok-2022” military exercises in the midst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reaffirms New Delhi’s friendly ties with Moscow despite a tightening strategic partnership with the United States. 

“India’s participation in exercises in Russia is not unusual, but this time, they are also making a political point,” said Manoj Joshi, distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “New Delhi is emphasizing that it will adhere to the independent position that it has taken in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and continue to remain neutral between the U.S. and Russia.”   

India has refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has not joined Western sanctions against Moscow. Its oil imports from Moscow have risen sharply this year as it takes advantage of deep discounts. 

India has defended its oil purchases as necessary for what it says is an energy deficient, developing country like India. “We have been very honest about our interests,” India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said earlier this month in Bangkok. “I have a country with a per capita income of $2,000. These aren’t people who can afford higher energy prices.”

Although India is currently purchasing weapons from other countries, including Israel and the United States, much of its existing weaponry is of Russian origin.

Analysts point out that India is unlikely to turn away from Russia anytime soon.

“India has an important relationship with Moscow with regard to defense and it has really no direct stake in the Ukraine crisis,” said Joshi. “If our national interest is served by maintaining ties with Russia, we will do so — that is India’s position.”  

For the time being, Washington appears to have accepted India’s position. Questioned about India’s participation in the Vostok military exercises earlier this month, State Department spokesman, Ned Price, said that the U.S. recognizes that reorienting a country’s foreign policy is a long-term challenge. 

“At the same time, we also recognize that there are countries around the world that have longstanding relationships, including security relationships, with countries like Russia, for example,” he told reporters at a press briefing. “Reorienting a country’s foreign policy or a country’s security establishment or defense procurement practices away from a country like Russia is not something that we can do overnight.” 

However, there are questions about how long India can continue to walk the middle ground between the United States and Russia amid the deepening tensions between the two countries. 

Analysts in Washington say that the U.S. appears to be taking a long view, with an eye toward trying to convince New Delhi that a long-term security partnership with Moscow is untenable. 

“Washington certainly worries about New Delhi’s enduring security partnership with Moscow,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Wilson Center. “In the coming months, we can expect Washington to make the case to New Delhi that eventually Russia, sanctioned and cash-strapped, will no longer have the capacity to keep manufacturing and exporting weaponry to India.”

India for its part has maintained a low profile about the Russian drills — there has been no official word on its participation but sources in the Defense Ministry have confirmed that a contingent from India will take part. 

India’s military partnership with the United States is growing rapidly amid mutual worries over China. In mid-October, India and the U.S. will hold a joint military exercise as part of an annual military exercise known as “Yudh Abhyas” or “War Practice.” The location of the exercises — which according to reports will be 100 kilometers from the disputed India China border — is significant. 

For New Delhi, striking a balance between Russia and its partners in the Quad grouping that consists of India, U.S., Japan and Australia is also challenging. According to a report in the Deccan Herald newspaper, India will not take part in naval drills in the Sea of Japan that are part of the military exercises. New Delhi has close ties with Tokyo, which along with the U.S. and Australia is an important partner in efforts to counter China’s expansionism in the Indo-Pacific.

The strengthening Russia-China relationship could also emerge as a concern for New Delhi as tensions between India and Beijing over their border disputes show no signs of abating. While Beijing has joined drills with Moscow earlier, its participation in the Vostok military exercises reflects growing defense ties between the two countries amid tensions with the West, analysts say. 

“It is the first time the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) has sent its Army, Navy and Air Force at the same time to a joint drill with Russia,” points out Bonnie S. Glaser, director with the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “With the alignment between Moscow and Beijing growing closer, it can be expected that bilateral military ties will also likely increase.”

From Russia’s point of view, the participation of both India and China, who have tense bilateral ties with each other, underscores the country’s efforts to strengthen ties with both the large Asian economies.

Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs said Moscow is hoping to ensure “Eurasian unity” against the West, “owing to its traditional partnership with India and the ideological friendship with China.

“Such a role has served Moscow well amidst Ukraine, as both countries have refrained from condemning Russian actions,” Panda said. 
…

U.N. agencies are urging a robust response to the $160 million appeal launched Tuesday by the government of Pakistan and the United Nations for emergency aid for millions of people hit by devastating monsoon floods in the south Asian country.

Torrential rains have been pounding Pakistan since June. The government estimates some 33 million people have been affected and that more than 1,000 have died, among them hundreds of children.

Jens Laerke, spokesman for the U.N. office for the coordination of humanitarian affairs, said nearly one million homes have been damaged, and more than 700,000 livestock lost in what is seen as the worst flooding in decades.

“Some 500,000 people displaced by the floods are sheltering in relief camps, with many more living with host families,” he said. “Access to assistance is difficult due to the flooding and landslides, with around 150 bridges washed away and nearly 3,500 kilometers of roads damaged.”

In the meantime, the World Meteorological Organization forecasts the heavy rains are set to continue. WMO spokeswoman Clare Nullis said the worst rainfall in decades follows the worst drought in decades, and the worst heatwave in decades.

“Even before the latest flooding incident, Pakistan and northwest India had been witnessing above average monsoon rainfall.…This is the footprint of climate change,” she said. “The weather is becoming more extreme.”

The World Health Organization warns of disease outbreaks, such as cholera and diarrhea because of the flooding and lack of safe drinking water. WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier said at least 888 health facilities have been damaged, including 180 that have been destroyed. He said this will make it difficult for anyone affected to receive treatment.

“All the noncommunicable diseases will severely lack support,” he said. “People cannot reach health facilities for simple things like diabetes. Women in pregnancy or giving birth have immense problems having safe access to health facilities or even having safe hygiene situations.”

The joint Pakistan-U.N. $160 million response plan aims to reach 5.2 million of the worst affected and most vulnerable people over the next six months. It will provide food, water, shelter, and other essential relief. U.N. agencies will work to prevent large outbreaks of disease and provide protection and care for people with disabilities and other special needs. 
…

The United Nations appealed Tuesday for $160 million to support Pakistan’s response to more than two months of destructive nationwide flash flooding triggered by climate-driven erratic monsoon rains.

Pakistani officials say the calamity has “badly” impacted more than 33 million people and killed more than 1,100 people since the seasonal rainfall began in June.

The U.N., together with the Pakistani government, launched the flash funding appeal simultaneously in Islamabad and Geneva.

“Pakistan is awash in suffering,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told the event in his pre-recorded video message.

“The Pakistani people are facing a monsoon on steroids — the relentless impact of epochal levels of rain and flooding,” he warned. “Millions are homeless, schools and health facilities have been destroyed, livelihoods are shattered, critical infrastructure wiped out, and people’s hopes and dreams have been washed away.”

Guterres said the U.N.’s flash appeal will help provide 5.2 million people with food, water sanitation, emergency education, protection and health support in the South Asian nation.

He noted that Pakistani authorities were responding to “the climate catastrophe” by releasing funds, including immediate cash relief, to flood victims. But the scale of needs was rising like the flood waters, requiring collective and prioritized attention, the U.N. chief said.

“Let us work together to respond quickly and collaboratively to this colossal crisis.”

Climate Change

Guterres said that South Asia is one of the world’s global “climate crisis hotspots” and people living in these hotspots are 15 times likely to die from climate impacts.

“Let’s stop sleepwalking towards the destruction of our planet by climate change. Today, it’s Pakistan. Tomorrow, it could be your country,” he warned.

The U.N. chief criticized the lack of action in tackling the climate emergency even as the world continues to experience more and more extreme weather events.

Guterres said “it is outrageous that climate action is being put on the back burner as global emissions of greenhouse gases are still rising, putting all of us – everywhere – in growing danger.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari told Tuesday’s televised launching ceremony Pakistan has been battling one of the most severe, totally anomalous cycles of torrential monsoon weather since June, noting rainfall during this period has been equivalent to 3 times the 30-year national average.

“In some cases, the water is just everywhere, in an unbroken horizon of inundation,” Zardari said.

The National Disaster Management Authority, or NDMA, leading the country’s response in coordinating assessments and directing humanitarian relief to affected people, has listed 72 out of the country’s 160 districts as calamity-hit. More than 33 million residents there have been affected, tens of thousands of others displaced, with massive losses inflicted on key cash crops.

The death toll from the floods is likely to increase as some flood-hit towns and villages in the hardest-hit Baluchistan, Sindh provinces as well as in the mountainous north remain cut off due to landslides and flooding, hampering rescue and relief efforts.

The rest of the two provinces, northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and central Punjab had also suffered significant losses.

The NDMA noted that more than a million homes, 162 bridges, and nearly 3,500 kilometers of roads across the South Asian nation have been damaged or destroyed. The flooding has also killed more than 800,000 farm animals and damaged vital farmlands and crops, it added.

The flash floods in Pakistan are comparable to those of 2010 when more than 2,000 people were killed.

Pakistani officials informed Tuesday’s event that the economic impact of the flooding could reach at least $10 billion, and it may take the country years to rehabilitate the victims.

Some countries, including China, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, have already sent cargo planes that are carrying tents, food, medicines and other relief supplies, and rescue teams. More relief aid is on the way, according to Pakistani officials.

The International Rescue Committee anticipates a sharp increase in food insecurity and a severe impact on the national economy. “Our needs assessment showed that we are already seeing a major increase in cases of diarrhea, skin infections, malaria and other illnesses,” the group said in a statement.

Pakistan is home to more than 7,000 glaciers, but experts warn rising global temperatures are causing them to melt fast, creating thousands of glacial lakes. The South Asian nation says it is responsible for only less than 1% of greenhouse gas emissions but listed among the top ten countries suffering from the climate change effects.
…

The familiar ingredients of a warming world were in place: searing temperatures, hotter air holding more moisture, extreme weather getting wilder, melting glaciers, people living in harm’s way, and poverty. They combined in vulnerable Pakistan to create unrelenting rain and deadly flooding. 

The flooding has all the hallmarks of a catastrophe juiced by climate change, but it is too early to formally assign blame to global warming, several scientists tell The Associated Press. It occurred in a country that did little to cause the warming, but keeps getting hit, just like the relentless rain. 

“This year Pakistan has received the highest rainfall in at least three decades. So far this year the rain is running at more than 780% above average levels,” said Abid Qaiyum Suleri, executive director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute and a member of Pakistan’s Climate Change Council. “Extreme weather patterns are turning more frequent in the region and Pakistan is not a exception.” 

Climate Minister Sherry Rehman said “it’s been a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions.” 

Pakistan “is considered the eighth-most vulnerable country to climate change,” said Moshin Hafeez, a Lahore-based climate scientist at the International Water Management Institute. Its rain, heat and melting glaciers are all climate change factors scientists warned repeatedly about. 

While scientists point out these classic climate change fingerprints, they have not yet finished intricate calculations that compare what happened in Pakistan to what would happen in a world without warming. That study, expected in a few weeks, will formally determine how much climate change is a factor, if at all. 

‘An outcome of the climate catastrophe’

The “recent flood in Pakistan is actually an outcome of the climate catastrophe … that was looming very large,” said Anjal Prakash, a research director at India’s Bharti Institute of Public Policy. “The kind of incessant rainfall that has happened … has been unprecedented.” 

Pakistan is used to monsoons and downpours, but “we do expect them spread out, usually over three months or two months,” said the country’s climate minister Rehman. 

There are usually breaks, she said, and not as much rain – 37.5 centimeters (14.8 inches) falls in one day, nearly three times higher than the national average for the past three decades. “Neither is it so prolonged. … It’s been eight weeks and we are told we might see another downpour in September.” 

“Clearly, it’s being juiced by climate change,” said Jennifer Francis, a climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Massachusetts. 

Relentless heat and rain

There’s been a 400% increase in average rainfall in areas like Baluchistan and Sindh, which led to the extreme flooding, Hafeez said. At least 20 dams have been breached. 

The heat has been as relentless as the rain. In May, Pakistan consistently saw temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius (113 Fahrenheit). Scorching temperatures higher than 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) were recorded in places like Jacobabad and Dadu. 

Warmer air holds more moisture – about 7% more per degree Celsius (4% per degree Fahrenheit) — and that eventually comes down, in this case in torrents. 

Across the world “intense rain storms are getting more intense,” said Princeton University climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer. And he said mountains, like those in Pakistan, help wring extra moisture out as the clouds pass. 

Instead of just swollen rivers flooding from extra rain, Pakistan is hit with another source of flash flooding: The extreme heat accelerates the long-term glacier melting then water speeds down from the Himalayas to Pakistan in a dangerous phenomena called glacial lake outburst floods. 

“We have the largest number of glaciers outside the polar region, and this affects us,” climate minister Rehman said. “Instead of keeping their majesty and preserving them for posterity and nature. We are seeing them melt.” 

‘Coming to a tipping point’

Not all of the problem is climate change.

Pakistan saw similar flooding and devastation in 2010 that killed nearly 2,000 people. But the government didn’t implement plans to prevent future flooding by preventing construction and homes in flood prone areas and river beds, said Suleri of the country’s Climate Change Council. 

The disaster is hitting a poor country that has contributed relatively little to the world’s climate problem, scientists and officials said. Since 1959, Pakistan has emitted about 0.4% of heat-trapping carbon dioxide, compared to 21.5% by the United States and 16.4% by China. 

“Those countries that have developed or gotten rich on the back of fossil fuels, which are the problem really,” Rehman said. “They’re going to have to make a critical decision that the world is coming to a tipping point. We certainly have already reached that point because of our geographical location.” 

Borenstein reported from Kensington, Maryland, and Arasu from New Delhi. AP journalists Munir Ahmed in Islamabad, Pakistan, and Aniruddha Ghosal in New Delhi contributed to this report. 
…

A year after the last U.S. troops left Kabul, there appears to be little consensus on whether the world, and the West in particular, is any safer from the terrorist groups that call Afghanistan home.

One of the most polarizing developments in the debate came on July 31 of this year, when a U.S. airstrike — the first in Afghanistan since U.S. forces departed on August 30, 2021 — targeted a safe house in downtown Kabul, killing al-Qaida terror group leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.

U.S. officials said al-Zawahiri had moved to the Afghan capital months earlier, residing in a house owned by members of the Taliban’s ruling coalition and that Taliban officials were aware he was there.

“The United States does not need a permanent troop presence on the ground in harm’s way to remain vigilant against terrorism threats or to remove the world’s most wanted terrorist from the battlefield,” White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson wrote in a memo issued Monday.

A recently declassified U.S. intelligence assessment also downplays the threat from al-Qaida in Afghanistan.

Al-Qaida in particular “does not have a capability to launch attacks against the U.S. or its interests abroad from Afghanistan,” according to the assessment, which added that the group “has not reconstituted its presence in Afghanistan since the U.S. departure in August 2021.”

But there are skeptics of the view that al-Qaida has been diminished, including some U.S. lawmakers and former U.S. military and intelligence officials, who argue al-Zawahiri’s presence in Kabul should renew fears that the Taliban would fail to adhere to promises codified in the 2020 Doha agreement with the United States, including severing ties with al-Qaida.

And it is not just a potentially resurgent al-Qaida that has raised concerns among counterterrorism agencies around the world.

A U.N. report issued last month warned the Islamic State terror group affiliate in Afghanistan was expanding, and that IS core leadership now “views Afghanistan as a base for expansion in the wider region for the realization of its ‘great caliphate’ project.”

The same report argued that al-Qaida may be better positioned to emerge as the greatest long-term terror threat.

“I think we are on the same precipice of concern about state collapse that could lead to the rise or the empowerment of transnational terrorist organizations,” Republican Representative Peter Meijer said in prerecorded remarks Monday to the Center for Strategic and International Security, likening conditions in Afghanistan now to those that existed prior to the September 11, 2001, terror attacks in the United States.

“We have a vested interest today in making sure that Afghanistan does not collapse, that there is not an overwhelming humanitarian catastrophe that will only empower those who seek to do the West harm,” Meijer added.

And even U.S. intelligence officials have refused to rule out that al-Qaida, or IS, in particular, could one day move to strike the West.

Earlier assessments suggested that could happen in as little as six months to a year, but newer reports suggest it will still take both terror groups about a year to rebuild external attack capabilities, should they decide to do so.

Here is a look at the Taliban and the major terrorist organizations now operating in Afghanistan, and how they have fared in the year since U.S. and coalition forces left the country.

Click on the name of the organization to jump to that section, or scroll to read them in order.

Taliban

Islamic State Khorasan Province

Al-Qaida core

Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent

Haqqani network

Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan

Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari

Islamic Jihad Group

Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement/Turkistan Islamic Party

Lashkar-e-Islam

Hezb-e-Islami

Lashkar-e-Taiba

Taliban

Since its emergence in 1994, the Taliban movement, which calls itself the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, has been led by an emir, a central figure ostensibly appointed for life by a religious council of Taliban leaders.

Like his two predecessors, current emir Hibatullah Akhundzada has made few public appearances and leads a reclusive life in southern Afghanistan’s Kandahar province.

Initial intelligence assessments indicated Akhundzada had been leaving management of day-to-day government affairs to his appointed caretaker Cabinet in the Afghan capital. But newer intelligence from several countries indicates things have been changing.

“Outsiders’ access to the Taliban leader is limited, and Hibatullah himself has reportedly been less open to deliberation with other Taliban leaders with whom he previously held regular consultations,” the United Nations concluded in a report in May, based on member state intelligence.

Akhundzada “is said to have become more autocratic and dismissive of dissent,” the report added.

There are also signs that the Taliban under Akhundzada are still working to consolidate power.

“The Taliban have been shifting to what I would call calculated coercion, using not as little violence as possible, but selectively applying and targeting violence. That’s both in a military sense and in a social sense in terms of repression, of political opposition of dissenting speech,” Andrew Watkins, a senior expert with the U.S. Institute of Peace, told an online forum hosted Tuesday by the CATO Institute.

Various estimates by U.S. intelligence agencies and U.N. member states put the number of Taliban fighters between 58,000 and 100,000, with numbers fluctuating according to the time of year and battlefield conditions.

Intelligence assessments shared with the U.N., however, suggest the Taliban are seeking to increase the size of their standing military to as many as 350,000 fighters. As of May, it was believed 7,000 new recruits had completed training.

The Taliban are also trying to nurture a nascent air force, with 40 operational aircraft captured from the former U.S.-backed Afghan military. The list of aircraft includes two Russian-made Mi-17 helicopters, two U.S.-made Black Hawk helicopters, two Mi-24 helicopter gunships and a transport plane.

Intelligence shared publicly by the U.S. and U.N. member states further accuses the Taliban of continuing to work closely with al-Qaida and maintaining ties with other terrorist groups, pushing some to become part of a new Taliban-run Afghan military force.

For their part, Taliban officials have publicly denied that terrorism is an issue for Afghans under their leadership and recently claimed they had “no knowledge” that al-Zawahiri was living in Kabul.

U.S. officials are skeptical.

“We have reason to believe — very good reason to believe — that members of the Taliban, Haqqani network, were aware of his [al-Zawahiri’s] presence in Kabul,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Monday. “And we are taking a look at the implications of that.”

Recent intelligence shared with the U.N. also suggests the Taliban are looking for ways to confront Islamic State’s Afghan affiliate, Islamic State Khorasan Province, or IS-Khorasan.

Reports indicate the Taliban have set up three special forces battalions to take on IS-Khorasan, with one of the battalions boasting 1,000 fighters.

Islamic State Khorasan Province

IS-Khorasan is a sworn enemy of both the Taliban and al-Qaida, which has deep and long-standing ties to Taliban leadership. But IS-Khorasan is also one of the terror groups that has benefited the most from the Taliban takeover.

As Taliban forces quickly took control of Afghanistan last year, they emptied numerous prisons and allowed IS-Khorasan fighters to escape. At the time, U.S. military officials cautioned that the prison breaks allowed the terror group’s numbers to swell from several hundred fighters to a couple thousand.

More recent assessments from the U.S. and the U.N. now put the size of IS-Khorasan at between 1,500 and 4,000 fighters, concentrated mostly in remote parts of Kunar, Nangarhar and Nuristan provinces.

Some intelligence agencies also argue there is evidence of smaller, covert IS-Khorasan cells spread across the northern Afghan provinces of Badakhshan, Faryab, Jowzjan, Kunduz and Takhar.

“I think the threat of Daesh is growing,” former Afghan national security adviser Hamdullah Mohib told VOA’s Afghan Service, using the Arabic acronym for the terror group.

The Taliban “are incapable of preventing Daesh attacks, and in fact, their recruitment has been on the rise,” Mohib said. “Members of the Taliban perhaps have also joined Daesh as retaliation to maybe some of their policies and other grievances that they would have with their leadership.”

Recent intelligence shared with the U.N. indicates the Taliban are having difficulties putting pressure on IS-Khorasan, and that some efforts may backfire.

Reports also suggest that in addition to disgruntled former Taliban fighters, IS-Khorasan has also attracted some former members of the U.S.-backed Afghan military who fear retaliation from the ruling Taliban government.

The pace of IS-Khorasan attacks also seems to have increased, with the group claiming rocket attacks against targets in Pakistan and Uzbekistan, and also increased activity along the border with Tajikistan.

“I think they’re really trying to establish that they are not just confined to Afghanistan. They have broader aims, regional aims, as well,” Asfandyar Mir, a senior expert at the U.S. Institute of Peace, told VOA in June.

But Mir doubts that for now, IS-Khorasan is prepared to expand its footprint.

IS-Khorasan leader Sanaullah Ghafari, also known as Shahab al-Muhajir, “doesn’t believe in holding territory. He seems to think that holding territory is costly, and so he doesn’t want to do that,” Mir said. “I think their primary focus will remain Afghanistan. They will continue to attack these religious minorities and then make a real effort to target Taliban leaders.”

Earlier this month, IS-Khorasan claimed an attack that killed one of those leaders, Talban cleric Sheikh Rahimullah Haqqani.

Officials from the U.S. and other countries have said there are no signs IS-Khorasan is planning to conduct attacks against the West, and that it could take until early next year for the group to muster the needed capabilities.

But a U.S. official speaking to VOA on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss intelligence warned the timing depends on IS-Khorasan’s political calculations.

The official said should IS-Khorasan decide to make attacks against the West or the U.S. a priority, it could do so more quickly.​

Al-Qaida core

Intelligence assessments from a number of countries shared with the U.N. in the months after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan suggested al-Qaida was enjoying “a significant boost” from the withdrawal of U.S. forces.

And an updated U.N. report written before al-Zawahiri was killed on July 30 said he was “alive and communicating freely.”

The report further warned that, “the international context is favorable to al-Qaida, which intends to be recognized again as the leader of global jihad.”

But al-Qaida’s fortunes appear to have taken a major downturn following the July 30 strike that killed al-Zawahiri.

A newly declassified U.S. intelligence community assessment, highlights of which were shared with VOA, rejects the notion that the al-Qaida core is building momentum, despite a historically cozy relationship with the Taliban.

“Al-Qaida has not reconstituted its presence in Afghanistan since the U.S. departure in August 2021,” according to the assessment, first reported by The New York Times.

“Ayman al-Zawahiri was the only key al-Qaida figure who attempted to reestablish their presence in country when he and his family settled in Kabul earlier this year,” the assessment continued. “Less than a dozen al-Qaida core members with historical ties to the group remain in Afghanistan and probably were located there prior to the fall of Kabul; we have no indication that these individuals are involved in external attack plotting.”

Still, intelligence from other countries that was shared with the U.N. would suggest that while al-Qaida may not present an immediate threat, there is reason for concern.

“Al-Qaida leadership reportedly plays an advisory role with the Taliban, and the groups remain close,” last month’s U.N. report cautioned. “Al-Qaida propaganda is now better developed to compete with [Islamic State] as the key actor in inspiring the international threat environment, and it may ultimately become a greater source of directed threat.”

But there are questions as to whether Afghanistan will continue to play a prominent role in incubating al-Qaida and its larger aspirations.

Current and former Western counterterrorism officials say expectations that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would spur a migration of al-Qaida followers to the country appear to have fizzled out.

So, too, none of al-Zawahiri’s likely replacements are currently in Afghanistan.

Al-Zawahiri’s No. 2, Saif al-Adel, is in Iran, where he has been for several years.

“He’s in Iran … do the Iranians let him leave?” said a former Western counterterrorism official, who spoke to VOA on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss classified intelligence. “It’s sort of tough to be the leader of al-Qaida while stuck in a gilded cage.”

Al-Qaida’s No. 3, Abd al-Rahman al-Maghrebi, is likewise thought to be in Iran. And the next two in line to lead al-Qaida are in Africa: Yazid Mebrak, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) leader, and Ahmed Diriye, leader of al-Shabab.

As for the al-Qaida officials still in Afghanistan, U.S. intelligence agencies are skeptical they could muster a substantial threat.

“We assess that neither the few remaining al-Qaida core members, nor its regional affiliate, are plotting to attack the Homeland,” the recently declassified intelligence assessment concluded. “Al-Qaida has several affiliates we believe it would call upon outside the region to drive potential plots.”​

Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent

One of al-Qaida’s key offshoots, al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), appears to now have a greater presence in Afghanistan than the group’s core.

Intelligence estimates from U.N. member states say AQIS has up to 400 fighters in Afghanistan spread across Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimruz, Paktika and Zabul provinces.

But U.N. reports and assessments from U.S. counterterrorism officials question whether AQIS is still capable of presenting any sort of united or coherent front.

The recently declassified U.S. intelligence community assessment called AQIS “largely inactive,” with many of its members focused more on media production than on plotting terror attacks against the West.

National Intelligence Council Deputy National Intelligence Officer Anastasia Smith, speaking publicly in June, went as far as to describe AQIS as “weak.”

The possibility its members could simply be absorbed into the Taliban “[is] certainly something we’re watching for,” she said. ​

AQIS fighters, including native Afghans and fighters from Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Myanmar, are said to have fought alongside the Taliban against the U.S.-backed government prior to its collapse.

AQIS leader Osama Mehmood and AQIS deputy Atif Yahya Ghouri are both thought to reside in Afghanistan.

Haqqani network

The Haqqani network is widely considered to be the most influential and strategically successful extremist group in the region. While nominally loyal to the Taliban, the network, as described by the U.N., is “semi-autonomous,” maintaining ties with both al-Qaida and IS-Khorasan.

The group boasts a “highly skilled core of members who specialize in complex attacks and provide technical skills, such as improvised explosive device and rocket construction,” according to the U.N.

The Haqqani network also oversees a force of between 3,000 and 10,000 traditional armed fighters in Khost, Paktika and Paktiya provinces, with a recent U.N. assessment warning the group now also controls at least one elite unit and controls security in Kabul and across much of Afghanistan.

The network is run by Sirajuddin Haqqani, a son of the late mujahedeen commander and network founder Jalaluddin Haqqani. For much of its existence, the group has been based in Pakistan’s tribal areas as it operated across the border in Afghanistan. The more than 40-year-old Haqqani has a $10 million bounty on his head from the U.S. government and works as a deputy emir of the Taliban, as well as the interior minister of Afghanistan.

The Haqqanis have been accused of perpetrating some of the deadliest and most sophisticated attacks against U.S., Indian and former Afghan government targets in Afghanistan since 2001.

The network is believed to have strong ties to Pakistani intelligence and al-Qaida. The U.S. designated it a foreign terrorist organization in 2012.

Intelligence gathered over the past couple of years from some U.N. member states said that at times, the Haqqanis have acted as a go-between for the Taliban and IS-Khorasan, and that with the tacit approval of the Taliban, they directed the Islamic State affiliate to attack the now defunct U.S.-backed Afghan government.

With U.S. forces no longer in Afghanistan, it appears the Haqqani network has ceased to nurture ties with IS-Khorasan.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan

Most active on the 2,640-kilometer-long border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is an insurgent group involved in terrorist attacks in both countries.

The latest U.N. intelligence estimates put the number of TTP fighters at between 3,000 and 4,000.

The group’s stated objectives are to end the Pakistani government’s control over the Pashtun territories of Pakistan and to form a strict government based on Islamic law.

And the most recent intelligence shared with the U.N. indicates the group’s fortunes have been on the rise.

“TTP has arguably benefited the most of all the foreign extremist groups in Afghanistan from the Taliban takeover,” the U.N. warned in May. “It has conducted numerous attacks and operations in Pakistan … suggesting that cease-fire deals have a limited chance of success.”

The report added, “TTP also continues to exist as a stand-alone force, rather than feeling pressure to merge its fighters into Afghan Taliban units, as is the prospect for most foreign terrorist fighters.”

U.S. forces in Afghanistan and the Pakistani military have killed or captured several TTP leaders over the past two decades.

The group’s current leader, Noor Wali Mehsud, has publicly declared allegiance to the Afghan Taliban leader.​

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was founded in the late 1990s with help and financial support from al-Qaida founder Osama bin Laden. Several IMU leaders have served as part of the al-Qaida hierarchy. The group has sought to replace the Uzbek government with a strictly Islamic regime.

IMU launched its first attack in February 1999 by simultaneously detonating five car bombs in Tashkent, the Uzbek capital. The group is also believed to have carried out attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In 2015, then-IMU leader Usman Ghazi and other senior members of the group shifted allegiance from al-Qaida to the rival Islamic State. But the move did not sit well with Taliban leaders, who launched a major military campaign against Ghazi, killing him and nearly wiping out the group.

IMU’s force size was estimated at several hundred in 2018, but the group was reportedly battered by a large-scale Taliban onslaught in Afghanistan’s Faryab province that year.

As of mid-2021, intelligence suggested IMU had divided into Uzbek and Tajik factions, with the Uzbek faction possibly entertaining the idea of joining IS.

Recent intelligence suggests the remnants of IMU were fighting alongside the Taliban as they took over Afghanistan, which has earned the terror group more freedom of movement.​

Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari

Khatiba Imam al-Bukhari (KIB) was founded in 2011 by fighters who left the IMU and fought alongside the Taliban against the U.S.-backed Afghan government.

The group is led by Dilshod Dekhanov, a Tajik national.

KIB’s forces are in Afghanistan’s Badghis province, though the group is also thought to have about 100 or so fighters in Syria, possibly in Latakia or Idlib governorates.

According to the U.N., KIB’s numbers in Afghanistan have been growing because of the successful recruitment of locals. KIB not only has received money from the Taliban but also raises funds through its leadership in Syria.

Intelligence shared with the U.N. indicates Dekhanov visited Kabul in September, asking the Taliban to unify KIB and IMU under his leadership.

Dekhanov’s request was denied, reports say, with Taliban officials pushing to make the KIB part of a new Taliban army.​

Islamic Jihad Group

According to intelligence assessments shared with the U.N., the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG) is considered “the most combat-ready Central Asian group in Afghanistan” and is known for expertise in “military tactics and the manufacture of improvised explosive devices.”

The group is led by Ilimbek Mamatov, a Kyrgyz national. The group’s second-in-command, Amsattor Atabaev, is from Tajikistan.

IJG’s fighters operate across Badakhshan, Baghlan and Kunduz provinces, fought alongside Taliban forces against the previous government, and even got some financial support from the Taliban over the past year.

Like KIB’s leader, Mamatov is reported to have asked Taliban leaders to unite key Central Asian groups under his leadership. But reports say his request was rejected.​

Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement/Turkistan Islamic Party

The Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), also known as the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), was established in the Xinjiang region of China, with its first reported attack in 1998.

After 2001, it began getting help from both al-Qaida and the Taliban, and it has been consistently active in Afghanistan since 2007.

According to intelligence estimates provided by U.N. member states, ETIM has as many as 1,000 fighters in Afghanistan training and plotting for attacks on Chinese targets.

Most of the ETIM fighters had been in Badakhshan province, which borders China. But intelligence shared with the U.N. indicates the Taliban relocated many of the fighters “to both protect and restrain the group.”

Recent intelligence suggests that ETIM fighters have embraced the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and that members have been encouraged to forge deeper ties with Afghanistan.

“Several member states reported some ETIM/TIP members have fraudulently obtained local identity documents by fabricating Afghan identities,” the U.N. said in a recent report.

“The group is seeking to further entrench its presence in the country by both organizing marriages to local women and facilitating the relocation of Uyghur women to Afghanistan,” the report added.

In addition to the group’s close ties to the Taliban and al-Qaida, it has been reported to collaborate with other groups in Afghanistan, including TTP and Jamaat Ansarullah, an ethnically Tajik faction of the IMU.

Intelligence also suggests that ETIM has lost some members to IS-Khorasan or is actively working with the group, with as many as 50 Uyghur fighters siding with the IS affiliate in Afghanistan’s Nuristan province.

Lashkar-e-Islam

Lashkar-e-Islam was founded in the Khyber district of Pakistan in 2004 but relocated to Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province in 2014, following clashes with the Pakistani military.

Since coming to Afghanistan, Lashkar-e-Islam has clashed with IS-Khorasan, with major skirmishes taking place in 2018 as the two groups fought for control of territory and resources.

Hezb-e-Islami

Hezb-e-Islami, or Party of Islam, was founded in 1976 by former Afghan Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

The group shares much of the same ideology as the Taliban, and its fighters have assisted the Taliban in the past.

In 2015, Hekmatyar ordered his followers to help IS fighters in Afghanistan but never pledged allegiance to IS.

Hezb-e-Islami was known to target U.S. forces in Afghanistan, carrying out a series of attacks on U.S. and coalition forces in from 2013 to 2015.​

Lashkar-e-Taiba

Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), or Army of the Pure, was founded in Pakistan in the 1990s and is sometimes known as Jamaat-ud-Dawa.

Led by Hafiz Muhammad Saeed and aligned with al-Qaida, the group is perhaps best known for carrying out the November 2008 attacks in Mumbai, India, that killed more than 160 people.

Recent intelligence assessments shared with the U.N. warn the group’s leadership met with Taliban officials in January and is also now operating training camps in Afghanistan, having previously sent fighters to Afghanistan to assist the Taliban in their efforts.

The U.S. is offering a $10 million reward for information leading to Saeed’s conviction in the Mumbai attacks.
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The executive board of the International Monetary Fund approved almost $1.2 billion for Pakistan Monday, providing much-needed relief as the country grapples with an economic crisis worsened by massive floods.

“Pakistan’s economy has been buffeted by adverse external conditions, due to spillovers from the war in Ukraine, and domestic challenges,” Antoinette Sayeh, IMF deputy managing director and acting chair said in a statement.

Criticizing government policies that caused “uneven and unbalanced growth,” Sayeh stressed Pakistan must implement “corrective policies and reforms” to regain economic stability, and inclusive and sustainable growth.

The loan approval comes as Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stand at a mere $13.5 billion, as of August 19 according to the State Bank of Pakistan. Weekly inflation touched 45% in August, according to government data, with prices of food and fuel skyrocketing.

Announcing the board’s decision on Twitter, Miftah Ismail, Pakistan’s finance minister, congratulated the nation and thanked prime minister Shahbaz Sharif, “for taking so many tough decisions and saving Pakistan from default.” The $1.17 billion is part of a $6 billion loan program agreed upon in 2019.

However, the funding may not be enough to pull Pakistan out of its deep economic crisis, as the country is dealing with some of the worst floods in over a decade. Since June, according to disaster managements agencies, countrywide rains and flooding have killed over 1,136 people, “badly affected” more than 33 million others and devastated crops.

The extent of the monsoon disaster, estimated to have caused around $5 billion in damage, prompted the government to declare a national emergency and appeal to the international community for aid last week.

The IMF statement did not make any mention of the economic fallout of the floods. It welcomed Pakistan’s plan to achieve a small budget surplus, calling it critical to contain spending and generate more tax revenues.

The loan approval from the IMF’s executive board comes after tough negotiations between the Fund’s staff and Pakistani officials. Before staff-level approval in July, the global lender had demanded Pakistan raise electricity and fuel rates, do away with many subsidies, let the open market determine the value of its currency which sent the rupee into a tailspin, and fill a budgetary shortfall of nearly $4 billion.

Drama at home

While Pakistan took austerity measures and managed to secure billions in financial commitments from friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar, last-minute developments at home created concerns about Pakistan’s ability to unlock the IMF’s aid.

Under the IMF deal, all four provinces of Pakistan agreed to show a budget surplus this year. However, in a letter to finance minister Ismail, the finance minister of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), a province run by ousted prime minister Imran Khan’s PTI party, refused to meet the condition, citing flood damages and other outstanding financial issues with the federal government. Ismail called it a “conspiracy against Pakistan.”

On Monday, two audio clips began circulating in the media in which Khan’s former finance minister is allegedly heard asking the current finance ministers of Punjab and KP, both provinces run by PTI, to decline to show budget surplus in a bid to pressure Sharif’s government.

While the authenticity of the leaked audio clips is yet to be established, PTI leadership defended the conversations in a news conference Monday, calling it “advice.” In a separate news conference, finance minister Ismail criticized the PTI, saying “after God, [the] IMF program is the one support” for Pakistan that is drowned in floodwaters.

The IMF granted Pakistan’s waivers for nonobservance of some performance criteria. In a tweet Ismail thanked China, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE for helping bridge funding gaps to revive the IMF program. He also thanked the U.S., Turkey, EU and others for their support.
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