Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev holds a snap election on Sunday that he is certain to win, solidifying his grip on power less than a year after he sidelined his long-ruling predecessor Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The former diplomat, who came to power in 2019 as Nazarbayev’s hand-picked successor when the country’s only ruler since the Soviet era stepped down, broke with his ex-patron after a January uprising that Tokayev called a coup attempt.

A new election victory — a foregone conclusion against five little-known candidates — will give Tokayev, 69, the sort of overwhelming personal mandate Nazarbayev routinely secured as he built a personality cult over five successive terms.

Nazarbayev, who had held on to important posts after stepping down, gave them up during the uprising in which 238 people died. Tokayev has since forced Nazarbayev allies to relinquish other positions and changed the name of the capital — renamed “Nur-Sultan” in Nazarbayev’s honor — back to Astana.

Tokayev called in Russian help to put down the unrest but has since kept his distance from Moscow, avoiding giving public backing to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Russia is Kazakhstan’s biggest trading partner, and Russia’s slide into recession has hurt Kazakh economic growth, while the strength of the ruble boosted by capital controls has helped push inflation in Kazakhstan to a 14-year high.

Tokayev, a former foreign minister and deputy secretary general of the United Nations, has overseen constitutional reforms which limit his own rule to two terms. He has also promised to reduce income inequality by rooting out corruption and redistributing wealth more fairly.

Polls have predicted none of the five other candidates would score in the double digits.

“Among those who are running for president, I only know Tokayev, firstly,” said Timerlan Sadykov, a resident of Kazakhstan’s biggest city Almaty.

“And secondly, the way he’s conducted himself on the international stage has been very appealing.”

Preliminary results of the vote are expected Monday, and exit poll data will be published hours after polls close at 8 p.m. local time (1400 GMT).
…

Wildlife conservationists are heartened by a rare sighting of a snow leopard in what they say is the first member of the endangered species to be captured on camera in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The adult animal was identified from images taken last month using infrared camera traps in a remote region some 3,500 to 3,800 meters above sea level. The trap was installed earlier this year in an effort by the Jammu and Kashmir government to determine how many of the cats exist in the territory.

“In coming days more such findings from the ongoing surveys are expected from these landscapes,” said Munib Sajad Khanyari, high altitude program manager of India’s Nature Conservation Foundation, who explained that the enigmatic animals can serve as a “flagship” for the promotion of conservation and development programs.

“The camera trapping exercise also revealed other important and rare species such as Asiatic ibex, brown bear and Kashmir musk deer, besides incredible information regarding other biodiversity components of such habitats, interactions and threats [which] will be documented in the shape of a final report,” he said.

Snow leopards, weighing up to 75 kilograms, favor the solitude of the snowy Himalayan highlands, making sightings highly uncommon. With their thick, silky, gray coats ringed with black patches, they blend with the granite habitat, contributing to their air of mystery.

Estimates of their total population range from 4,080 to 6,590 spread across 12 countries and nearly 100,000 square kilometers. The entire Indian Himalayas are believed to support only about 500 snow leopards.

“We know very little about the number of snow leopards in Kashmir,” Khanyari said. “From our initial understanding, there are likely to only be a handful of individuals here.”

Intesar Suhail, wildlife warden in the Kashmir Valley’s southern Shopian district, said there have been periodic sightings of snow leopards in the region but until now there had been no photographic evidence of their presence.

“Confirmation in itself is a significant development,” he told VOA. “Till now there were records, but this time we have photographic evidence. In the long run it will help in the conservation effort and protection of its habitat.”

Suhail added that conservation efforts “will be focused around this species as it is a flagship species.”

Khursheed Ahmad, head of the Division of Wildlife Sciences at the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology, said there is a dire need to better assess the occupancy and population status of snow leopards in order to ensure their survival.

Among the threats facing the creatures are poaching, habitat fragmentation, increased human interference in its habitat and killings by herders concerned about leopard attacks on their livestock.

Global climate change is also putting pressure on the animals, which thrive in the glacial heights of the Himalayas and feed on other animals such as ibex, with in turn feed on plants requiring the same cold climate.

“The climate change is having its impact globally so [this holds] true for Kashmir and needs to be mitigated,” Suhail said. “The snow leopard is an indicator of climate change. Its permanent habitat is in glacier areas and is a very cold area.”

The good news, he said, is that data emerging from the current snow leopard census taking place across India will make it possible to better understand how climate change is affecting their population.

Khanyari, from the National Conservation Foundation, made a similar point based on his personal experience of closely observing a blue sheep, or bharal, and later finding its partially eaten carcass in a cave.

“It really shows you two things — that it is hard to survive in nature and that life and death are a part of nature,” he said. “Also, it shows us how things are interconnected: Without the blue sheep, the snow leopards can’t exist and without the grass, the blue sheep can’t exist. We are all connected.”
…

Pakistan said Friday it would not formally recognize Afghanistan’s Taliban government without global consensus and warned the world’s patience with the Islamist group is diminishing.

Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari told reporters in Islamabad his government continues to advocate sustained international engagement with the Taliban to help prevent a humanitarian disaster in the war-torn neighboring country.

“As far as their official recognition is concerned, Pakistan would not want to take a solo flight and would rather pursue this process with international consensus,” the Pakistani foreign minister said.

Zardari urged the Islamist rulers in Kabul to fulfill their pledges to Afghans and the world at large that they would fight international terrorism and respect human rights of all Afghans, including giving women access to education. That would place Pakistan in a “better position” to garner support and help for the people of Afghanistan, he added.

“The world is running out of patience [with the Taliban]. But despite these challenges, we appeal and insist on sustaining engagement [with Afghanistan], and we should not repeat mistakes of the past,” Zardari warned.

He backed international calls for the Taliban to “practically show progress” in preventing global terrorist groups from threatening Pakistan and other nations out of their Afghan sanctuaries.

The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021, when the then-internationally supported government collapsed, and U.S.-led foreign troops withdrew from the country after battling the Islamist insurgents for nearly two decades.

While many countries, including Pakistan, China and Russia have kept their diplomatic missions in Kabul open, no foreign government has yet formally recognized the legitimacy of the male-only Taliban leadership due to human rights and terrorism concerns.

The Islamist group has largely excluded women from public life and barred teenage girls from attending secondary schools. Most female public sector employees have been told to stay home.

Afghan women have been instructed to cover their faces in public and avoid long road trips unless accompanied by a male relative. Lately, the Taliban have barred women from visiting public baths, parks and gyms.

The Taliban have ignored repeated calls to reverse the restrictions and dismiss criticism of their governance, saying it is in line with Afghan culture and Islamic law.

The radical group had previously ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001, enforcing its own controversial strict interpretation of Islamic law. It had completely banned women from public life and receiving an education.

Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the only three countries at the time that had ever recognized the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate government.

Islamabad complains fugitive commanders of an outlawed extremist group known as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Pakistani Taliban, have increased cross-border attacks from their Afghan bases since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul. The violence has killed close to 500 Pakistanis, mostly security forces, this year alone.

The Taliban deny allegations they are allowing any terrorist groups, including the TTP, to use Afghan soil against Pakistan or other countries.

The TTP, a Pakistani offshoot and close ally of the Afghan Taliban, is listed as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations. It has between 4,000 and 6,500 fighters in Afghanistan, according to U.N. estimates.
…

Some of the more dire predictions about the boost terror groups in Afghanistan would get from the sudden U.S. withdrawal have not come to pass, with recent assessments suggesting organizations such as al-Qaida and Islamic State have yet to regenerate formidable external attack capabilities.

The new assessments, shared by U.S. officials and contained in just-released government reports, find that both terror groups remain intent on striking the United States and its Western allies, but their reach, for now, falls short.

“Terrorist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaida remain committed to attacking inside the United States,” National Counterterrorism Center Director Christine Abizaid told U.S. lawmakers Thursday, using an acronym for the Islamic State group.

“Al-Qaida’s capability to threaten the United States homeland from Afghanistan is quite limited, in part thanks to the operation that killed Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul,” Abizaid said. “But also because the al-Qaida elements that are still present in Afghanistan are really not focused on external operations as far as we can tell.”

As for IS-Khorasan, Abizaid said the IS Afghan affiliate is one of the Islamic State’s most effective, though it has not yet demonstrated an ability to strike outside the region.

“The threat today is more likely to take the form of an individual attacker inspired by these groups rather than a networked and hierarchically directed plot,” she said.

The conclusions by Abizaid and others are far different from the warnings issued by some key U.S. officials in the months after the last U.S. troops left Afghanistan in August 2021, when they suggested both al-Qaida and IS-Khorasan could reconstitute their ability to attack the West within a year, if not sooner.

But the newer assessments are backed by recent intelligence findings that neither al-Qaida nor IS-Khorasan has found a way to flourish in the absence of U.S. troops.

According to a newly released report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimates al-Qaida’s presence in Afghanistan is limited to about a dozen members of the core group along with about 200 members of one of its affiliates, al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).

And while the DIA believes Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban will continue to provide sanctuary and cover for al-Qaida, it and other U.S. intelligence agencies argue that power now rests with al-Qaida’s affiliates rather than core leadership, which is for now absent from Afghanistan.

“We continue to monitor for signs al-Qaida has chosen a successor to Zawahiri, now three months since his death,” Abizaid told lawmakers Thursday. “We are particularly focused on the role that Iran-based legacy leaders such as Saif al-Adel may play in the future of the organization.”

Multiple Western intelligence agencies have long seen al-Adel as the most likely heir to al-Zawahiri, but according to the inspector general’s report, al-Adel still has not yet left Iran for Afghanistan.

And even when he does, his ability to affect the terror group’s trajectory may be limited.

“The decentralized organizational structure is likely to impede his ability to make rapid changes,” the report said.

As for IS-Khorasan, the DIA estimates it has grown little over the past six months, retaining a force of about 2,000 fighters while failing to assert control over any territory.

Still, the inspector general report warns that IS-Khorasan remains “a significant terrorist threat in Afghanistan” as it battles with the country’s Taliban rulers.

“Its suicide bombings, ambushes and assassinations routinely target Taliban officials, religious minorities and foreign interests,” the report said, noting the group claimed at least 41 attacks in eight Afghan provinces in the three months ending in September.

IS-Khorasan also appears bent on expanding its reach, though for now its efforts have been limited to Central Asia and attacks against countries such as Pakistan and Uzbekistan.

Still, some U.S. officials remain cautious about predicting how the threat from Afghanistan will evolve.

“The threat of foreign terrorist organizations like al-Qaida attempting to reconstitute in Afghanistan following our withdrawal is very real, and our ability to gather valuable intelligence on the ground inside Afghanistan has been reduced. That’s just a reality,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said Thursday.

“As time progresses, I am concerned that we will have fewer and fewer good sources of information about what al-Qaida is or isn’t doing in Afghanistan,” he said. “We are very concerned about al-Qaida and ISIS’s ability to inspire attacks even from over there.”
…

An official report blames Afghanistan’s internationally supported, now-defunct government for failing to recognize that the United States intended to withdraw from the country, one of several factors contributing to its rapid collapse in August 2021 before the Taliban seized power.

The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), which examines the U.S. investment in the conflict-torn nation, produced the report through interviews with current and former American officials as well as experts and former Afghan government officials.

U.S.-backed former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani governed the country through a “highly selective, narrow circle of loyalists,” destabilizing the government at a critical juncture, SIGAR found.

The report said the Afghan government’s high level of centralization, endemic corruption and struggle to attain legitimacy were long-term contributors to its eventual precipitous collapse.

“The fact that the United States had supported Afghanistan for 20 years and that Afghanistan had been highly dependent on external support for much of its modern history, made it all the harder for Afghan politicians and leaders to envision a future without such support,” the report said.

The evaluation noted Washington also failed to resolve the issue of corruption and to achieve its key goal of building stable democratic, representative, gender-sensitive, and accountable Afghan governance institutions.

The report noted the United States had appropriated $145 billion for the reconstruction of Afghanistan as of June 2021, including $36.3 billion for governance, social and economic development. However, the government dissolved when Ghani fled the country in the face of the Taliban’s rapid takeover and U.S.-led NATO troop withdrawal.

“The rapid disintegration of Afghan security forces and the Ghani administration in August 2021 represented the dramatic conclusion of a two-decade, U.S.-led effort to develop and westernize Afghan society,” SIGAR said. “Over nearly 20 years and three U.S. presidencies, the United States had vacillated on the issue of military withdrawal.”

The report found that the Afghan government had received “mixed messages” from U.S. policy makers and others in Washington, rendering it unprepared for the foreign troop withdrawal.

The Trump administration’s decision to exclude the Ghani administration from peace talks with the Taliban made it “appear weak and abandoned by its primary ally, while bolstering the legitimacy” of the Islamist insurgency.

“U.S. efforts to build and sustain Afghanistan’s governing institutions were a total, epic, predestined failure on par with the same efforts and outcome in the Vietnam war, and for the same reasons,” Chris Mason, associate professor of national security at the U.S. Army War College, told SIGAR.

The U.S. reconstruction efforts, however, made some progress toward achievement of Afghan governance objectives before the collapse of the government, SIGAR said.

“In both the public and private sectors, the combination of available opportunities and the training and education provided by the United States and its international partners led to increased human capital and institutional capacity. Capacity building was imperfect, but did yield some results,” the evaluation said.

It added that “residual elements” of the former Afghan government, including the central bank and ministries of finance as well as health “still exist and are functioning, although their sustainability is uncertain.”

Since returning to power 15 months ago, the Taliban have dismantled ministries and departments meant to promote free speech and rights of Afghans, particularly those of women.

The radical ruling group has enforced its own interpretation of Islam to govern the country.

Women have been largely excluded from public life. They are required to cover their faces when in public and undertake long road trips only if accompanied by a male relative. Public parks, baths and gyms are closed to women. Teenage girls are barred from attending secondary schools beyond grade six.

SIGAR said it provided a draft of the report to the U.S. Department of State, Department of Defense and U.S. Agency for International Development for review and comment. The watchdog received official written comment from the State Department but the others did not submit any comments, it said.

“In communications with the government of then-Afghan President Ghani, high-level officials in the Biden administration made clear that the United States was preparing for a full withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan,” the report quoted the State Department as telling SIGAR in a written reply.

The letter stressed that “the standard by which the U.S. government succeeded or failed in its political objectives needs to be wholly reconsidered in this report.”
…

Russia hosted a multilateral meeting Wednesday where participants renewed a call for the United States to unblock Afghanistan’s central bank assets and urged the Taliban rulers to ensure women access to public life and education in Afghanistan.

China, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Iran, India, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey attended what is known as the Moscow format of consultations on Afghanistan. 

Zamir Kabulov, the Russian special presidential envoy, said in his inaugural speech the meeting was being held for the first time without the participation of Afghan representatives.

“We resolutely demand that the U.S. and its allies unconditionally unblock Afghanistan’s national financial assets in order to provide the (Taliban) authorities with the opportunity to exercise their legal right to pursue an independent financial and economic policy,” said Kabulov. 

He expressed concern over the Taliban’s not forming what he called an ethno-political inclusive government to run the country, referring to marginalized Afghan minority groups in the country. Kabulov said such a system of governance would promote “a true national reconciliation in Afghanistan.”

Russian authorities continue to treat the Taliban as a terrorist group and outlaw it on their territory. Moscow has allowed the Taliban to operate the Afghan diplomatic mission in Russia.

The Taliban seized power in August 2021 when the internationally-supported Kabul government collapsed and all U.S.-led foreign troops withdrew from Afghanistan. 

Speakers at Wednesday’s event in the Russian capital noted that Taliban delegates were invited to last year’s Moscow format consultations, where participating countries had “laid down principles to govern practical engagement” with the new Afghan rulers.

Pakistan’s special envoy, Mohammad Sadiq, said promoting political inclusivity, countering terrorism and respecting rights of Afghans, including women were among the principles outlined in the engagement. But the Taliban did not show progress on those counts, he said.

“Nowhere this is more apparent than on the question of ‘inclusiveness.’ Unfortunately, there is little to show on this count,” Sadiq said. “Despite assurances by the interim Afghan government, the rights of women and girls also appear to have regressed, not progressed. The footprint of terrorist organizations in Afghanistan has yet to be fully eradicated, the Pakistani envoy said. 

Delegates at the Moscow event largely stressed the need for the global community’s sustained engagement and cooperation with the country to help Afghans secure a durable peace after four decades of war and bloodshed.

The United States and other Western partners suspended financial assistance to Kabul after the Taliban seized power. The Biden administration subsequently imposed banking sector sanctions and froze $7 billion in Afghan central bank foreign reserves to prevent them from falling into the hands of the Islamist group. More than $2 billion is also held in Europe.

The Taliban have increasingly excluded women from public life since returning to power 15 months ago, despite promising a moderate version of the harsh governance that characterized their first government from 1996 to 2001. The policies have deterred foreign governments from formally recognizing the new Afghan leadership.

Most female public sector employees in Afghanistan have been ordered to stay at home, women are barred from long road travel without a male guardian and they must cover their faces in public. 

Teenage girls have also been barred from resuming secondary-school education beyond grade six. Last week, the radical group banned women from visiting amusement parks and using public baths as well as gyms across Afghanistan.

The Taliban defend their male-only government, saying it represents all Afghan groups. They reject criticism of their governance, maintaining it is in line with Afghan culture and Islamic law.

On Tuesday, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan or UNAMA renewed its call for the Taliban to reverse their latest restrictions on women’s rights. 

“UNAMA is deeply concerned by recent Taliban officials’ statements & mounting on-the-ground reports of women being prevented from using parks, gyms and baths. All Afghans’ rights should be upheld, particularly women’s access to all forms of public life and girls right to education,” the mission said on Twitter. 
…

Authorities in Pakistan said Wednesday that militants had ambushed and killed at least six members of a provincial police force.

The early morning attack took place in Lakki Marwat district in the country’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.

Police officials said the slain cops were conducting a routine patrol when two gunmen on a motorcycle sprayed their vehicle with bullets and managed to flee.

Provincial authorities condemned the attack as a “cowardly act” and said a search operation was underway to apprehend the perpetrators.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attack saying, “terrorism continues to be one of Pakistan’s foremost problems,” in a statement posted on Twitter Wednesday.

An outlawed extremist group, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP, or the Pakistani Taliban, claimed responsibility for the deadly shooting. In a statement sent to reporters, the group said the police unit was ambushed on the way to a counter-TTP raid.

The TTP, listed as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations, routinely carries out attacks against security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and elsewhere in Pakistan.

The militant group in a separate statement Wednesday claimed that a U.S. drone strike and an ensuing Pakistani security raid in the province’s Dera Ismail Khan district had killed three TTP commanders.

The claim, which could not be immediately verified from independent sources, comes a day after provincial counterterrorism authorities confirmed the killing of “four terrorists in an intelligence-based operation” in the district.

The TTP is a Pakistani off-shoot and close ally of Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban. Central leaders and commanders of the Pakistani Taliban are sheltering in the neighboring country.

Pakistan has experienced a dramatic rise in TTP attacks originating from Afghanistan since the Islamist Taliban seized power there in August 2021 when the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed and all international troops exited the war-torn neighboring country.

The violence has killed close to 500 Pakistanis, mostly security forces, this year alone. Officials note that Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has suffered the highest number of TTP attacks, claiming the lives of at least 100 soldiers and as many members of the police force.

Pakistani security forces have also continued their push against militants and killed hundreds of them during counterterrorism operations.

Islamabad has been pressing the Taliban government to live up to its pledges to prevent international terrorists from operating out of Afghan soil.

Pakistan entered in talks with the TTP, mediated and hosted by the Afghan Taliban, a year ago in a bid to seek a negotiated settlement to years of violence in the country. But the process broke down a couple of months ago, leading to increased militant attacks.

The new Islamist rulers in Kabul have repeatedly vowed they would combat foreign terrorists in Afghanistan. But critics remain skeptical about the claims, citing deep ties between the Taliban and terrorist groups, including al-Qaida and TTP.

The U.N. estimates there are up to 6,500 TTP fighters operating out of Afghanistan.
…

When the U.S. government started formally negotiating with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, in 2019, Tamana Ayazi was concerned the process excluded prevalent fears of Afghan women that a Taliban return to power would deprive them of their basic human rights.

A filmmaker, Ayazi decided to tell the world what was at stake for Afghan women through a documentary centered on the life of a prominent Afghan woman.

“We began filming in January 2020,” Ayazi told VOA.

The ambitious project, however, was stalled by months of COVID-19 restrictions followed by rapid changes in Afghanistan after the Taliban returned to power, forcing Ayazi out of the country before she could put the final pieces together.

“As a female journalist and filmmaker, I could not return to Afghanistan to complete the project,” she said, adding that her male co-director was able to travel to Afghanistan to do the final filming in mid-2022.

‘I’m just the mayor’

Premiering at the Toronto International Film Festival on September 9, the 90-minute documentary, “In Her Hands,” shows glimpses of the life of Zarifa Ghafari, the first female mayor of Maidan Shahr, an insurgency-stricken small city less than 30 miles to the south of Kabul, the Afghan capital.

Warned by the Taliban to quit her post or face death, the young mayor is filmed as she defies persistent social, political and even personal challenges until she tearfully flees the country after the Taliban returns to power in August 2021.

“Actually, I’m not a hero,” Ghafari is shown telling an audience at the U.S. State Department in March 2020 as she receives the International Women of Courage Award from former first lady Melania Trump. “I’m just the mayor of Maidan Shahr.”

The documentary then shows Ghafari surviving a Taliban ambush before cutting to a separate attack in November 2020, where Taliban assassins kill her father, an Afghan army official, in front of his house.

Less than six months after her evacuation to Germany, Ghafari returned to Afghanistan in February 2022 to assess the situation of women under Taliban rule.

“The situation is worsening day after day,” Ghafari told VOA last week from her home in Germany. “It’s painful … it’s like 100 ignorant individuals have taken over 2,000 people hostage in a village.”

The Taliban have reversed women’s rights gains in Afghanistan by closing secondary schools for girls and giving women no political representation. Last week, the regime prohibited women’s entry to public parks and sports facilities, alleging that the ban was issued because women did not appropriately observe Islamic hijab.

‘Lasting change should come from within’

Despite widespread calls to restore women’s rights, the Taliban have remained defiant, repeatedly introducing policies that banish Afghan women from the public space despite the condemnation of human rights groups.

“Women have been erased from public life and their civil, political, economic, social and cultural rights disregarded,” Richard Bennett, a U.N. Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, said in October.

While commending international sympathy and support for Afghan women, Ghafari said advocacy in Western capitals alone will not bring lasting change to Afghanistan.

“Real and lasting change should come from within Afghanistan,” said Ghafari, warning that continued Taliban efforts to repress growing calls for change will only return the country to civil war.

“In Her Hands” will be available for streaming on Netflix beginning November 16.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZLunQrxs9I 
…

The world’s population is projected to hit an estimated 8 billion people on Tuesday, according to a United Nations projection, with much of the growth coming from developing nations in Africa.

Among them is Nigeria, where resources are already stretched to the limit. More than 15 million people in Lagos compete for everything from electricity to light their homes to spots on crowded buses, often for two-hour commutes each way in this sprawling megacity. Some Nigerian children set off for school as early as 5 a.m.

And over the next three decades, the West African nation’s population is expected to soar even more: from 216 million this year to 375 million, the U.N. says. That will make Nigeria the fourth-most populous country in the world after India, China and the United States.

“We are already overstretching what we have — the housing, roads, the hospitals, schools. Everything is overstretched,” said Gyang Dalyop, an urban planning and development consultant in Nigeria.

The U.N.’s Day of 8 Billion milestone Tuesday is more symbolic than precise, officials are careful to note in a wide-ranging report released over the summer that makes some staggering projections.

The upward trend threatens to leave even more people in developing countries further behind, as governments struggle to provide enough classrooms and jobs for a rapidly growing number of youth, and food insecurity becomes an even more urgent problem.

Nigeria is among eight countries the U.N says will account for more than half the world’s population growth between now and 2050 — along with fellow African nations Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania.

“The population in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on already strained resources and challenging policies aimed to reduce poverty and inequalities,” the U.N. report said.

It projected the world’s population will reach around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.

Other countries rounding out the list with the fastest growing populations are Egypt, Pakistan, the Philippines and India, which is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous nation next year.

In Congo’s capital, Kinshasa, where more than 12 million people live, many families struggle to find affordable housing and pay school fees. While elementary pupils attend for free, older children’s chances depend on their parents’ incomes.

“My children took turns” going to school, said Luc Kyungu, a Kinshasa truck driver who has six children. “Two studied while others waited because of money. If I didn’t have so many children, they would have finished their studies on time.”

Rapid population growth also means more people vying for scarce water resources and leaves more families facing hunger as climate change increasingly impacts crop production in many parts of the world.

“There is also a greater pressure on the environment, increasing the challenges to food security that is also compounded by climate change,” said Dr. Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India. “Reducing inequality while focusing on adapting and mitigating climate change should be where our policy makers’ focus should be.”

Still, experts say the bigger threat to the environment is consumption, which is highest in developed countries not undergoing big population increases.

“Global evidence shows that a small portion of the world’s people use most of the Earth’s resources and produce most of its greenhouse gas emissions,” said Poonam Muttreja, executive director of the Population Foundation of India. “Over the past 25 years, the richest 10% of the global population has been responsible for more than half of all carbon emissions.”

According to the U.N., the population in sub-Saharan Africa is growing at 2.5% per year — more than three times the global average. Some of that can be attributed to people living longer, but family size remains the driving factor. Women in sub-Saharan Africa on average have 4.6 births, twice the current global average of 2.3.

Families become larger when women start having children early, and 4 out of 10 girls in Africa marry before they turn 18, according to U.N. figures. The rate of teen pregnancy on the continent is the highest in the world — about half of the children born last year to mothers under 20 worldwide were in sub-Saharan Africa.

Still, any effort to reduce family size now would come too late to significantly slow the 2050 growth projections, the U.N. said. About two-thirds of it “will be driven by the momentum of past growth.”

“Such growth would occur even if childbearing in today’s high-fertility countries were to fall immediately to around two births per woman,” the report found.

There are also important cultural reasons for large families. In sub-Saharan Africa, children are seen as a blessing and as a source of support for their elders — the more sons and daughters, the greater comfort in retirement.

Still, some large families “may not have what it takes to actually feed them,” says Eunice Azimi, an insurance broker in Lagos and mother of three.

“In Nigeria, we believe that it is God that gives children,” she said. “They see it as the more children you have, the more benefits. And you are actually overtaking your peers who cannot have as many children. It looks like a competition in villages.”

Politics also have played a role in Tanzania, where former President John Magufuli, who ruled the East African country from 2015 until his death in 2021, discouraged birth control, saying that a large population was good for the economy.

He opposed family planning programs promoted by outside groups, and in a 2019 speech urged women not to “block ovaries.” He even described users of contraceptives as “lazy” in a country he said was awash with cheap food. Under Magufuli, pregnant schoolgirls were even banned from returning to classrooms.

But his successor, Samia Suluhu Hassan, appeared to reverse government policy in comments last month when she said birth control was necessary in order not to overwhelm the country’s public infrastructure.

Even as populations soar in some countries, the U.N. says rates are expected to drop by 1% or more in 61 nations.

The U.S. population is now around 333 million, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The population growth rate in 2021 was just 0.1%, the lowest since the country was founded.

“Going forward, we’re going to have slower growth — the question is, how slow?” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. “The real wild card for the U.S. and many other developed countries is immigration.”

Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, says environmental concerns surrounding the 8 billion mark should focus on consumption, particularly in developed countries.

“Population is not the problem, the way we consume is the problem — let’s change our consumption patterns,” he said.
…

U.S. President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping Monday, on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Bali, hosted by Indonesian President Joko Widodo. White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara is traveling with the president and brings this report.
…

In a last-minute controversial move, Pakistan has banned the screening of its international award-winning movie, “Joyland” in theaters across the country for containing “highly objectionable” content.

The movie, which features a married man falling for a transgender woman, was supposed to be released in Pakistani cinemas Friday.

In May, “Joyland” became the first Pakistani feature film to win a prize at the Cannes Film Festival. It is also Pakistan’s entry for the 2023 Academy Awards in the United States.

The government-led Central Board of Film Censors (CBFC) had in August formally granted the filmmaker the license to screen the movie in cinemas.

A federal information ministry statement, however, said that it had stopped the screening of the movie as the material in question does not “conform with the social values and moral stands of our society.”

The material in question is “clearly repugnant to the norms of decency and morality” in line with the relevant laws, said the statement without elaborating.

The director of “Joyland” denounced the decision as “absolutely unconstitutional and illegal.”

“We — a team — are gutted by this development but fully intend to raise our voice against this grave injustice,” Saim Sadiq said in an Instagram post late Sunday.

Senator Mushtaq Ahmad Khan, who represents the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami party in the upper house of parliament, was leading the campaign against the screening of “Joyland” in Pakistan. He praised the government’s decision to revoke the license.

“Pakistan is an Islamic state where no law, no step and no ideology against Islam can work here,” Khan wrote on Twitter.

Sadiq criticized the government, saying it “caved under pressure from a few extremist factions … and made a mockery of our federal censor board.” He urged the information ministry to review its decision.

Independent critics, Pakistani show business celebrities and social media activists also questioned the movie ban in a country that recognizes and gives legal rights to transgender people.

Salman Sufi, a key government adviser, announced Monday on Twitter that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had constituted a high-level committee to “assess the complaints as well as merits to decide on its release in Pakistan.”

“I personally do not believe in banning films that highlight issues faced by marginalized segments of our society. People should be trusted to watch & make their own mind,” Sufi tweeted Sunday in response to the widespread outcry sparked by the ban.

Pakistan has in recent years taken significant legal and administrative measures in its bid to protect the rights of transgender people who are often considered outcasts in the Muslim-majority South Asian nation.

The reforms effectively started with a landmark Supreme Court ruling a decade ago, which directed authorities to register transgender people as voters and give them, among others, equal inheritance and job opportunity rights.

The government launched a hotline this past September for transgender people, estimated to number around 500,000, to protect them against discrimination and harassment.
…

Pakistan is pressing Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban government to hand over a suspected killer of a Pakistani security guard before it reopens a busy southwestern border crossing between the two countries.

Pakistani authorities blocked all movement across the Chaman terminal in Baluchistan province on Sunday, immediately after a suspected Taliban security guard crossed over to the Pakistani side and opened fire on border forces there. The shooting killed a member of the paramilitary Frontier Corps and injured two others.

The deadly incident triggered clashes between border security forces of the two countries with reported casualties, but neither side has formally commented on the reported losses.

A senior Chaman administration official told VOA by phone that the border crossing was briefly opened late Monday afternoon to allow stranded Afghan and Pakistani pedestrians to return to their native countries, but no trade convoys were permitted to move in either direction.

“The border terminal has now been indefinitely closed for trade and all other movements. It will not be opened until the handing over of the assailant responsible for the martyrdom of the Pakistani soldier,” Deputy Commissioner Abdul Hameed Zehri told VOA.

Security camera footage circulating on social media shows the assailant among a group of several Taliban guards before he quickly brings out his weapon and shoots at Pakistani forces near an entry gate. A Pakistani security official confirmed the authenticity of the video to VOA.

Zehri said Pakistan’s attempts to seek a negotiated settlement to the issue failed to produce an outcome, but there were no clashes on Monday.

The motives of the shooting were not immediately known, nor have the Taliban offered any formal comment on the incident.

There were conflicting reports about the fate of the attacker. Some Taliban sources said they were searching for the man, while others said he was recently inducted into the border security unit and had already been apprehended.

The sources, however, ruled out the possibility of handing the suspect over to Pakistan, saying action against him will be taken strictly in line with Afghan laws.

The Chaman and the northwestern Torkham border crossings serve as the main trade routes for landlocked Afghanistan for bilateral and transit trade with and through Pakistan. There are several other relatively smaller terminals on the nearly 2,600-kilometer border separating the two countries.

Residents and traders said Monday scores of trucks transporting Afghan transit trade goods and bilateral shipments were stranded on both sides of the border after Pakistan closed the Chaman crossing.

The Taliban took over Afghanistan 15 months ago and have relied mostly on Pakistan to generate much-needed revenues for their cash-strapped new government through increased bilateral and transit trade.

Islamabad has in recent months removed tariffs and introduced visa concessions for Afghan traders. It has also dramatically increased Afghan coal imports, tilting the annual trade balance in favor of Kabul for the first time in the history of bilateral trade.

No country has yet recognized the Islamist Taliban due to human rights issues, particularly their treatment of women.

The absence of legitimacy and international economic sanctions ensuing the Taliban takeover have pushed the Afghan economy to the brink of collapse.

The Islamist rulers have placed restrictions on women, effectively limiting their access to public life and education. They have also ignored global calls for allowing teenage girls to resume their secondary-school education beyond grade six.

The hard-line group returned to power in August 2021 when the United States and NATO troops withdrew from Afghanistan after nearly 20 years of war with the then-insurgent Taliban.

The group has dismissed criticism of its policies as well as calls for reversing restrictions on women, saying it is governing the country in line with Afghan cultural and Islamic law.

On Wednesday, Russia will host a meeting of special Afghan envoys from China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.

The Taliban’s treatment of women and other human rights concerns are expected to figure high in the multilateral talks. Russian officials say they have not invited Taliban representatives to the meeting, even though they took part in the last session of the so-called Moscow format gathering held in October 2021. 

 
…

Fish, rice, mangrove trees and the lush delta wetlands where the massive Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna rivers drain into the Bay of Bengal.

It’s not luxury. But for the farmers and fishermen who live by the world’s largest mangrove forest, it’s more than enough. Now, the environment is at risk.

A power plant will start burning coal near the Sundarbans this year as part of Bangladesh’s plan to meet its energy needs and improve living standards, officials say. Home to 168 million people, Bangladesh is among the most densely populated countries in the world. Once the power plant begins functioning at its full capacity, it will generate 1,320 megawatts of power, as much as Bangladesh’s largest coal power plant generates now.

The developing world needs its people to live better. But fossil fuel-powered economic growth can create environmental problems and make lives worse.

Popularly called the Rampal coal power plant, the Maitree Super Thermal Power Project will burn some 4.7 million tons of coal annually, emitting about 15 million tons of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases. Plus, some 12,000 tons of coal will be shipped by boat through the Sundarbans each day, prompting fears of water pollution.

Low-lying Bangladesh is already hit by tropical cyclones and rising seas and millions are at risk of being displaced by flooding and other extreme weather. Just two weeks ago, 24 people died, 20,000 people were marooned, 10,000 people lost their homes and 15,000 acres of crops were destroyed by the tropical cyclone Sitrang.

“If it turns out bad, we will have to sell our properties and migrate,” farmer Luftar Rahman said.

Top scientists say there can be no new fossil fuel projects if the world is going to limit warming to the 1.5 degree Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement. Even though it is among the lowest-emitting nations in the world, Bangladesh has pledged to reduce its overall emissions by 22% by 2030. The building of this coal spewing power plant is likely to hinder the nation’s efforts to reduce its emissions.

But in October, around 80% of the country suffered a blackout for seven hours as a result of the country’s power grid collapsing. Such blackouts and long power cuts, sometimes for as long as 10 hours a day, affect businesses including the garment industry, which accounts for 80% of exports. Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest garment exporter, after China.

“We are desperately waiting to start generating power at Rampal. This plant will definitely help ease our energy woes,”said Tawfiq-e-Elahi Chowdhury, an energy advisor to the Bangladesh Prime Minister.

Bangladesh wants poor nations to receive funds to help adapt to the devastating effects of a warmer world. Until May of this year, Bangladesh was the chair of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a partnership of countries highly vulnerable to warming. With much of its land at or just below sea level, the country has already suffered heavy flooding and erratic rainfall. A World Bank report estimated that Bangladesh could suffer $570 million in damage annually from climate change-related extreme weather events.

In June, Bangladesh stopped running diesel power plants because of rising fuel prices. Bangladesh has two active coal-powered plants, and some experts say another isn’t needed.

“We need to be investing in power transmission and distribution systems. That would be much more beneficial for the country at this moment,” said Khondaker Golam Moazzem of the Dhaka-based economic think-tank Centre for Policy Dialogue

The country also has cleaner resources at home.

“Bangladesh has huge potential for natural gas. Onshore and offshore exploration and production of gas resources can be a better option compared to coal,” said Dhaka-based economist and environmental activist Anu Mohammad.

And renewable energy already powers millions of Bangladeshi homes.

“Bangladesh has actually got one of the fastest growing solar home systems,” said Saleemul Huq, director of the Dhaka-based International Centre for Climate Change and Development. “Another option is offshore wind power. With the latest technologies available, it is conceivable that wind power generated in the Bay of Bengal can provide for the needs of not only Bangladesh but also for regions in neighbouring India as well as Myanmar.”

The Rampal coal mine will be funded by the governments of Bangladesh and India. The Sundarbans was chosen because of available water and navigation facilities, officials said. The coal for the power plant will come from India as well.

The Sundarbans, “beautiful forest” in Bengali, evolved over millennia out of the Indian subcontinent’s mighty rivers. The Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Meghna dump rich sediments that they collect over thousands of miles from the Himalayas to the Indian ocean.

“The mangrove forests are a natural barrier to the ill effects of climate change and if they are affected, then the 10 million people who live in this coastal delta region will also suffer,” Mohammad, the Dhaka-based economist and environmental activist, said. “There are many alternatives to power generation. But there is no alternative to the Sundarbans.”

Mangrove forests are more effective than terrestrial forests at sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

“During my grandfather’s time, all the rice we needed was harvested from our land. There was enough rice and fish for everyone,” said 60-year-old Abul Kalam, who has lived his entire life in the Sundarbans. “If this power plant comes up, there will be no fish in our region. How can we grow crops when they dump toxic wastewater here?”
…

The United Nations refugee agency announced Friday it has launched a global funding campaign to help people forcibly displaced by war and persecution survive the bitterly cold winter ahead.

The UNHCR’s campaign aims to raise $700 million this year to help families who are living under perilous conditions in Ukraine, Afghanistan, and across the Middle East, so they can cope with freezing temperatures.

UNHCR spokeswoman Olga Sarrado said the many people who have been forced to flee their homes will be facing an extremely harsh winter. She said it will be difficult for them to provide for their daily needs given the steep rise in the cost of food, fuel, and other basic commodities. She added they also will struggle with the lingering impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and threats posed by the climate crisis.

“For many of the world’s forcibly displaced, this coming winter will be far more challenging than in recent years,” said Sarrado. “Many displaced families will have no option but to choose between food and warmth as they struggle to heat their shelters, source warm clothing, and cook hot meals.”

The UNHCR is suffering from a serious funding shortfall that has forced it to scale back some life-saving programs around the world. The agency cannot count on the usual international donors to provide for its needs. Therefore, the global winter funding campaign is reaching out to everyone for support.

Sarrado noted the campaign is appealing to governments, public and private corporations, and individuals to help keep refugees safe and warm this winter.

“We see already night temperatures dropping two to four degrees in all these regions, but this is just the beginning,” said Sarrado. “So support is needed to be able to start delivering cash assistance, thermal blankets, warm clothing, repairing the houses as soon as possible before the winter becomes even harsher.

The UNHCR reports some 7 million Ukrainians are displaced inside the country, and 7.6 million have fled as refugees across Europe. UNHCR teams are providing supplies to the displaced Ukrainians and helping reinforce homes and shelters to keep out the cold, said Sarrado.

In Afghanistan, she said the UNHCR plans to support 50,500 families, or about 400,000 people, with cash assistance. She said aid workers are delivering essential items such as blankets, solar panels and winter insulation for tents to help displaced families survive the harsh winter months.
…

East Timor welcomed a decision Saturday by Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders to admit the tiny country “in principle” as its 11th member, indicating the end is in sight for an 11-year quest to join the trade bloc.

Timorese Ambassador to Cambodia Kupa Lopes thanked Cambodia for its “unwavering support” in steering his country into the group, adding that Dili was happy to comply with pending fact-finding missions designed to enable East Timor to attain full membership next year.

“We are eager to join in ASEAN,” he told VOA on the sidelines of the annual ASEAN Leaders Summit. “So, this is very meaningful for Timor-Leste, and this is important for ASEAN as well,” he said, using East Timor’s official name.

ASEAN said Friday its members had agreed “in-principle” to admit East Timor, while in the meantime granting it observer status, which would enable the country to participate in all ASEAN meetings and summit plenaries until full membership is achieved.

ASEAN said in a statement that full admittance would be achieved “after considering the outcomes of the Fact-Finding Missions to Timor-Leste conducted by the ASEAN Political-Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community.” 

The statement said that “an objective criteria-based roadmap for Timor-Leste’s full membership including based on the milestones identified in the reports” of the fact-finding missions would be formalized by the ASEAN Coordinating Council.

Lopes said a final report by the coordinating council will be submitted at next year’s summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, for adoption alongside his country’s formal request for membership. East Timor gained independence from Indonesia in 2002.

“Timor-Leste is ready to cooperate with the ASEAN Council and also the Secretariat of ASEAN and to fulfill technicalities for the roadmap in order to be a full member at the next ASEAN summit,” he said.

East Timor was expected to join ASEAN this year with strong backing by Cambodia, which holds the rotating chair this year, but those hopes were dashed at the ASEAN foreign ministers’ summit in August when Dili failed to receive unanimous backing.

Previous disappointments with ASEAN were expressed by Timorese President Jose Ramos-Horta at the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia in July when he said, “It seems like the road to heaven – to reach the perfection of heaven – is easier than to reach the gates of ASEAN.”

Diplomatic sources said two issues had persistently dogged Dili’s bid – whether East Timor can afford the costs associated with membership, and that it was seen as being too close with China.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, however, told the foreign ministers that East Timor’s application was well advanced, would be reconsidered by Indonesia in 2023, and “by next year we could welcome this country to the ASEAN family.”

Ambassador Lopes said membership would provide East Timor’s 1.37 million people access to the ASEAN Economic Community and would open its market to the 683 million people in ASEAN. This would enable Timorese to travel and work across Southeast Asia in industries such as tourism and manufacturing, while expanding its own economy.

“Timor Leste’s economy can be more resilient – and then we can diversify from oil and gas, into areas of agriculture and tourism,” Lopes said.

David Totten, managing director of Emerging Markets Consulting in Phnom Penh, said the benefits for the impoverished nation would be enormous once it was fully accepted, and the constant delays in admitting East Timor had gone on for too long.

“Timor-Leste applied for membership more than 10 years ago and the continual holdup doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense,” he said. “ASEAN is an enormous market — for a country like Timor-Leste, it would undoubtedly provide a much-needed economic fillip for the local people.”

Cambodia was the last country to join ASEAN, in 1999.
…

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in New Delhi Friday that “like-minded countries” should work together to reduce the world’s economic dependency on “risky countries.”

On a visit to New Delhi aimed at strengthening the economic partnership between the two countries, she said, “We are proactively deepening economic integration with trusted trading partners like India.”

Yellen said that the United States is pursuing an approach she called “friend-shoring” – the diversification of supply chains away from countries that present geopolitical and security risks to global trade. The approach involves working with such developing countries as India where the supply chains can be established

“For too long countries around the world have been overly dependent on risky countries or a single source for critical inputs,” Yellen said Friday at a Microsoft facility in New Delhi on her first visit to India as Treasury secretary.

Trade disruptions have escalated globally in recent years because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Citing Russia as “an example of how malicious actors can use their market positions to try to gain geopolitical leverage or disrupt trade for their own gain,” Yellen said Moscow had for the better part of this year “weaponized” its natural gas supply against Europe.

She pointed out that new supply chains are already developing across regions from Asia to the European Union.

“We’re also seeing signs that Western firms are diversifying their supply chains beyond China. Technology companies like Amazon and Google are investing in India and Vietnam,” she said.

Co-chairing a forum with Yellen on U.S.-India economic and financial partnership, Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that New Delhi values its relationship with the United States as a “trusted partner” and will rely on cooperation with it to address global economic challenges.

U.S.-Indian trade has been growing and the United States became India’s largest trading partner last year.

Yellen said that New Delhi’s membership in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework will also tighten India-U.S. ties and support economic prosperity across the Indo-Pacific region. The framework is a Biden administration initiative aimed at increasing economic engagement with Asian countries, which are heavily dependent on trade with China.

Common concerns about China’s rise have drawn the U.S. and India closer in recent years and, according to observers, neither wants to allow their divergent approaches to the Russian invasion of Ukraine to jeopardize their economic or security ties.

New Delhi has not explicitly condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine or supported Western sanctions against Moscow. It has significantly increased its purchases of discounted crude oil from Moscow in recent months and is unlikely to endorse the plan by the Group of Seven nations to cap the price of Russian oil starting next month.

“India wants to work with the U.S. in a variety of spaces, but it’s not about to sign on to a plan that could penalize its partner Russia economicall — and especially with New Delhi having recently scaled up commercial cooperation with Moscow,” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Washington-based Wilson Center, told VOA.

Earlier this week, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said during a visit to Moscow that India would bolster economic ties with Russia and continue to purchase oil from Moscow.

U.S. officials say they are not expecting India to end purchases of Russian oil, but before arriving in India, Yellen had expressed hope that India could benefit from the price cap by enabling its buyers to negotiate better discounts.

“We are dealing with a confluence of headwinds,” Yellen said during her visit, adding that ending Russia’s war in Ukraine is “the single best thing we can do to help the global economy,” which is now in a “pivotal moment.”
…

Speaking under a gentle fall sun in Uzbekistan’s autonomous republic of Karakalpakstan, Deputy Speaker Rustam Saparbayev was philosophical about a wave of violent protests that tore through the region earlier this year.

“Perhaps we needed this upheaval to learn some lessons,” he said in an interview.

Saparbayev and other Karakalpak politicians know the civil unrest has called the world’s attention to this unique part of Central Asia. Thousands of Karakalpaks marched through the capital, Nukus, on July 1 opposing a proposal to revoke Karakalpakstan’s status as a “sovereign republic” within Uzbekistan.

The rallies turned violent and on July 2, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev flew to Nukus, promising to maintain the region’s status.

“No change without your approval,” he said. But the turmoil ended with at least 21 dead, 270 injured, and more than 500 arrested. Most detainees have been released since then.

New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) has been urging the international community to pressure Tashkent to allow an independent inquiry, but the government has shown no indication that it is interested in doing anything more than conduct its own investigation.

Uzbek authorities told VOA that those remaining behind bars have access to lawyers, but families of the accused doubt they will receive fair trials. Ordinary Karakalpaks whom VOA talked with expressed distrust in the justice system and the leaders in Nukus and Tashkent, the Uzbek capital.

West calls for credible investigation

A mostly desert region located near the shrinking Aral Sea, Karakalpakstan is a vast and resource-rich territory occupying nearly 40% of Uzbekistan. Its 2 million diverse people, say officials, are an integral part of the country.

Uzbekistan’s Western partners support its sovereignty but have called for a credible investigation, bringing to justice those responsible for the deaths.

“Uzbekistan is doing exactly that and while we are on it, we can’t discuss the findings,” said Jenisbay Shlimbetov, Karakalpak member of the parliamentary commission probing the July events.

When questioned about the independence of this body, Shlimbetov said: “No one interferes in our work. We have not faced any barriers as we investigate. We have rights defenders among us.”

He is referring to people such as former political prisoner Azam Farmonov, who argues the international human rights community should not rush to judge the commission’s work or the state’s criminal investigation.

“Our input is significant. We have gotten 107 detainees released so far,” Farmonov pointed out.

The 14-member commission is headed by Uzbek Ombudswoman Feruza Eshmatova, whom HRW wants to engage.

HRW says Uzbek security ‘unjustifiably used lethal force’

In research findings released on Monday, HRW concluded that “Uzbek security forces unjustifiably used lethal force and other excessive responses to disperse mainly peaceful demonstrators [including] types of grenades, weapons that can cause severe injuries and death. …

HRW said it has tried to talk with Uzbekistan’s Chief Prosecutor’s Office and others involved with no response thus far.

“The commission is an important step but is not independent, as it is composed mostly of politicians and officials very closely tied to the government,” Hugh Williamson, HRW’s Europe and Central Asia director, told VOA.

Alisher Qodirov, a member of the commission and deputy speaker of Uzbekistan’s Legislative Chamber, does not see the detained or those who have been released as innocent.

“They are free today because they cooperated with the investigation, and their communities have taken the responsibility to watch them,” Kadirov said, adding that “those who conspired in violence and actively took part will be punished.”

HRW is pushing for another probe.

“We really believe it is in Tashkent’s interest to take the step to ask independent experts to compile the evidence of what happened, and for this evidence then to be used as part of criminal investigations,” Williamson said. “In doing so, the government would be following its human rights commitments but also showing the international community that it is ready to see justice be done, even when it involves wrongdoing by, for instance, security forces.”

HRW suggested that Tashkent ask the office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights for independent expert nominations. OHCHR has a regional office in neighboring Kyrgyzstan with staff in Uzbekistan.

HRW examined 86 videos related to protests and 30 photographs of the dead and wounded. “Through an independent medical analysis of the visual evidence, HRW identified seven cases in which people sustained, and probably died from, severe tissue damage … by explosives,” the group reported.

‘Let’s work with them’

In the aftermath of the unrest, Uzbek security officials told local media that the security forces used “standard grenades” to disperse crowds, admitting they could cause serious injuries. HRW found “heavier projected grenades … 250-280 grams each, compared with 25-50 for standard grenades.”

“Uzbekistan has an obligation to respect the rights to peaceful expression and assembly, by ensuring that its security forces are trained and equipped to police demonstrations in rights-respecting ways,” it said.

Karakalpakstan’s seasoned human rights activist Azimboy Ataniyazov does not understand why Tashkent and Nukus are reluctant to allow foreign experts.

“What are we hiding?” Ataniyazov asked. “We know the number of the dead. We’ve seen plenty of video and photos from the unrest. Let international researchers come in to do their own inquiries. Let’s work with them since they want to help.”

Ataniyazov thinks the current commission’s work is a historic test for Uzbekistan’s stated commitment to democratic reform.

“If the system is really reforming, this effort should demonstrate that progress through independent findings, credible conclusions and critical recommendations,” he said.

Some Uzbek authorities, including some in the regional government, have suggested that the unrest was provoked by Karakalpak nationalists and separatists now living in other countries.

Compatriots abroad “are often misinformed about the reality at home,” said Saparbayev, the Karakalpak deputy speaker.

Foreign-based Karakalpaks denounce such claims as the lies of “acutely corrupt and dishonest politicians,” arguing that citizens have every right to express their views, wherever they are. They put the blame on leaders in Tashkent and Nukus, describing their land as abused, their people repressed.

Karakalpakstan’s leaders, including Western-trained Labor Minister Yuldash Alimov, disagree.

“The conditions here are much better than before,” he said. “You can’t deny our development.”
…

The United Nations General Assembly called on Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities Thursday to reverse their policies and practices restricting the human rights and fundamental freedoms of Afghan women and girls.

“Afghanistan is now the only state in the world that would deny girls their full right to education,” General Assembly President Csaba Korosi told a meeting of the assembly on the situation in the country where the Taliban has been in power for 15 months. “The prospect of girls’ education has been left to uncertainty amid seemingly random edicts from the Taliban.”

His comments come amid new reports from the country that the Taliban are expanding their restrictions on women’s daily lives by forbidding women from going to public parks and gyms. The militant Islamist group already forbids women from seeking a secondary school education.

“To say to a 12-year-old girl, ‘Your brother can go to school. You can’t go to school.’ How can we accept that?” Canadian envoy Bob Rae asked the assembly.

Call carries moral weight

The General Assembly adopted a wide-ranging resolution in a vote of 116 in favor, no countries against and 10 abstentions (which included Russia, China and Pakistan). While the resolution is not legally binding, it does carry the moral weight of the international community.

“The resolution is a clear call to respect, protect and fulfill human rights, develop inclusive governance and fight terrorism,” Germany’s U.N. Ambassador Antje Leendertse said in introducing the text. “It contains a clear message that there cannot be business as usual and no pathway towards recognition without these steps being made.”

In addition to calling on the Taliban to respect the rights of women, girls and minorities, the resolution expressed “serious concern” about the security situation in the country, where attacks by al-Qaida and ISIS-Khorasan — Islamic State’s Afghan affiliate — have been on the rise. The assembly urged the Taliban “to take concrete steps” against the groups.

Resolution links opium industry to terrorism

The resolution also draws a link between Afghanistan’s thriving opium cultivation and the financing of terrorism. The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said last week that this year’s opium crop is the country’s most profitable in years. Cultivation soared by more than 30%, covering some 233,000 hectares.

Watch related video by Ibrahim Momand:

In April, the Taliban banned the growing of opium poppies and all narcotics, but UNODC said this year’s harvest was mostly exempted from the decree. Countries have urged full implementation of the ban.

The assembly also expressed concern about the country’s economic crisis and called for efforts to restore the banking and financial systems, and to enable access to central bank assets outside the country.

Much of that is held by the United States, which is holding part of it for claims by the families of 9/11 victims. But $3.5 billion has been placed in an Afghan Fund that circumvents the Taliban to provide assistance directly to the people.

“These disbursements are intended to help address the acute effects of Afghanistan’s economic and humanitarian crises by supporting Afghanistan’s macroeconomic and financial stability,” said U.S. delegate Doug Bunch.

The country is experiencing a dire humanitarian crisis. A staggering 24 million people need humanitarian assistance. The U.N. has appealed for $4.4 billion for its response plan, which — with winter looming — is only about half-funded.
…

A United Nations report finds that opium cultivation in Afghanistan increased 32% over the previous year despite a Taliban ban on cultivation of all narcotics in April. For Voice of America, Ibrahim Momand has this report from Kabul, narrated by Anne Bell.
…

Thousands of supporters of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan resumed a protest march Thursday on the capital, Islamabad, to push for early elections a week after an assassination attempt on the 70-year-old opposition leader halted the rally.

The so-called “real freedom movement” set off from Wazirabad, the same place in Punjab province where Khan was shot on November 3.

The cricket-star-turned populist politician suffered bullet wounds to his leg and is still recovering at home in the provincial capital, Lahore. The shooting left a member of his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PT) party dead and 13 others injured.

Khan addressed the marchers virtually Thursday and reiterated his allegations that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, along with Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and Major-General Faisal Naseer, an official in the military-led spy agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI, had plotted the attack to kill him. Khan again alleged he had information from within Pakistani intelligence agencies that a plot was being hatched to assassinate him.

“I had discovered the assassination plot hatched against me almost two months ago and began exposing it in my public rallies in September,” Khan said. He has offered no evidence and demanded the three men resign to make way for an impartial probe into the attempt on his life.

The Sharif government and military have both rejected the allegations as “baseless and irresponsible.”

Police immediately arrested the suspected shooter, who later in a purportedly leaked video confession said he acted alone.

Khan said in his speech Thursday that subsequent provincial police investigations had concluded there were two assailants, renewing his call for an impartial high-level judicial inquiry into the incident.

Sharif already has written to the country’s chief justice to form a judicial commission to investigate the attack, saying the incident is “being used to make false allegations, spread chaos and undermine institutions.”

The United States and other countries swiftly denounced the attack on Khan, along with the United Nations.

On Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price reiterated that violence had no place in politics.

“We are concerned about what has happened in Pakistan in recent days. All parties should never resort to violence,” Price told reporters in Washington. “They should express their disagreements peacefully, using— employing universal rights — freedom of expression, freedom of assembly — but violence is never the answer,” he noted.

The PTI-led slow-moving convoy, in vehicles and on foot, began its 270-kilometer journey from Lahore on October 28, making stops in major towns en route to Islamabad before being suspended in the wake of the shooting incident.

Khan has pledged to join what he calls his “real freedom movement” when the marchers, including women, reach the garrison city of Rawalpindi, adjacent to the Pakistani capital, in about two weeks. He has called on his supporters from across the country to join the main rally before it crosses into Islamabad, where authorities have beefed up security and deployed thousands of police personnel to deter violence.

The former prime minister was removed from power through a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in April. Khan accused the U.S. of toppling his government in collusion with Pakistan’s powerful military and political opponents, without providing any evidence.

Washington and Islamabad deny any role in his removal.

The PTI protest march aims to force Sharif into announcing snap elections in Pakistan. He has rejected the demand as illegal, saying the general elections would be held in October 2023, when the constitutional term of the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, ends.

Khan’s popularity has grown since his ouster. He has been able to mobilize tens of thousands of people at his anti-government rallies across Pakistan, enabling the PTI to sweep recent by-elections for the National Assembly and the Punjab legislature.
…

The Taliban are banning women from using gyms in Afghanistan, an official in Kabul said Thursday, the religious group’s latest edict cracking down on women’s rights and freedoms since they took power more than a year ago.

The Taliban overran the country last year, seizing power in August 2021. They have banned girls from middle school and high school, despite initial promises to the contrary, restricted women from most fields of employment, and ordered them to wear head-to-toe clothing in public.

A spokesman from the Ministry of Virtue and Vice said the ban was being introduced because people were ignoring gender segregation orders and that women were not wearing the required headscarf, or hijab. Women are also banned from parks.

The ban on women using gyms and parks came into force this week, according to Mohammed Akef Mohajer, a Taliban-appointed spokesman for the Ministry of Virtue and Vice.

The group has “tried its best” over the past 15 months to avoid closing parks and gyms for women, ordering separate days of the week for male and female access or imposing gender segregation, he said.

“But, unfortunately, the orders were not obeyed and the rules were violated, and we had to close parks and gyms for women,” said Mohajer. “In most cases, we have seen both men and women together in parks and, unfortunately, the hijab was not observed. So we had to come up with another decision and for now we ordered all parks and gyms to be closed for women.”

Taliban teams will begin monitoring establishments to check if women are still using them, he said.

A female personal trainer told The Associated Press that women and men were not exercising or training together before at the Kabul gym where she works.

“The Taliban are lying,” she insisted, speaking on condition of anonymity, fearing reprisals. “We were training separately.

On Thursday, she said two men claiming to be from the Ministry of Virtue and Vice entered her gym and made all the women leave.

“The women wanted to protest about the gyms (closing) but the Taliban came and arrested them,” she added. “Now we don’t know if they’re alive or dead.”

Taliban-appointed Kabul police chief spokesman Khalid Zadran said he had no immediate information about women protesting gym closures or arrests.

The U.N. special representative in Afghanistan for women, Alison Davidian, condemned the ban. “This is yet another example of the Taliban’s continued and systematic erasure of women from public life,” she said. “We call on the Taliban to reinstate all rights and freedoms for women and girls.”

Hard-liners appear to hold sway in the Taliban-led administration, which struggles to govern and remains internationally isolated. An economic downturn has driven millions more Afghans into poverty and hunger as the flow of foreign aid has slowed to a trickle.

Kabul-based women’s rights activist Sodaba Nazhand said the bans on gyms, parks, work, and school would leave many women wondering what was left for them in Afghanistan.

“It is not just a restriction for women, but also for children,” she said. “Children go to a park with their mothers, now children are also prevented from going to the park. It’s so sad and unfair.”
…

An earthquake in the mountains of west Nepal rocked the Himalayan nation in early Wednesday, killing at least six people while they were asleep in their houses, a government administrator said.

The earthquake was felt as far away as the Indian capital New Delhi, some 400 kilometers (250 miles) west of the epicenter.

Kalpana Shrestha, the chief officer of Doti district, said six people were killed when they were crushed in their houses in a remote, sparsely populated mountain village. Five more were injured.

The earthquake around 2:12 a.m. local time sent people in the mountain villages panicking out of their houses and many spent the entire night out in the open, Shrestha said.

She said security forces have been dispatched to remote villages to help with the rescue effort. There were reports of houses damaged in many villages but no new reports of casualties.

Videos posted on social media showed villagers moving debris by hand to find the victims buried by the earthquake-damaged houses, shining mobile phone lights to move the piles of wood and stones that most of the mountain villages to build houses.

Most of the mountain villages are reached on foot and there are no roads to drive heavy equipment to help with the rescue.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said in a statement he has ordered government officials to provide immediate help to the victims and their families and provide all necessary medical assistance to those wounded.

Nepal’s National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Center gave a preliminary magnitude of 6.6. The U.S. Geological Survey provided measurements of a 5.7 magnitude with a depth of 18.1 kilometers (11.2 miles) and its epicenter 20 km (12 miles) east of Dipayal.

Earthquakes are common in mountainous Nepal, which is home to the tallest mountain. A 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 killed some 9,000 people and damaged around 1 million structures.
…

Russia said Wednesday it will host a multilateral meeting scheduled for November 16 to discuss the situation in Afghanistan.

Special Afghan envoys from China, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are expected to attend the gathering of what is known as the Moscow format of consultations on Afghanistan.

“The discussion to focus on the military-political, socioeconomic and humanitarian situation in Afghanistan as well as coordinating efforts to strengthen regional security,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told a news conference in Moscow. She shared no other details.

Russian officials have confirmed that there will be no participation by Afghanistan’s Islamist Taliban government at the talks, even though it took part in the last session of the Moscow format meeting held in October 2021.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday his government would conduct a detailed briefing for both the Taliban and other Afghan political forces following the planned huddle in the Russian capital. He was referring to former Afghan government officials and political figures who fled the country after the Taliban takeover for fear reprisals.

“We maintain regular contact with the Taliban representatives that will be told about the agenda of the Moscow format meeting. We have no secrets from them,” Lavrov told reporters in Moscow.

He renewed his government’s call for the Taliban to ensure they govern Afghanistan through a politically inclusive system and ease restrictions on women’s access to work and education.

“We have not yet achieved the desired result. We do not believe our colleagues that are in power in Kabul are moving fast enough in fulfilling their announced commitments to their people,” Lavrov added.

The Taliban foreign ministry has dismissed Russia-hosted talks as “incomplete” without its representation at the meeting.

“Fortunately, Afghanistan now has an independent, accountable & legitimate government that has managed to establish effective security, safeguarded borders & engaged positively with neighboring, regional & world countries in political, economic & security matters,” said a ministry statement posted online last week.

“Therefore, the absence of the Afghan government from such meetings can have an adverse effect on engagement,” the statement cautioned.

The Moscow consultative format was initiated in 2016 in a bid to promote political reconciliation between the then-internationally backed Kabul government and the Taliban, who were at the time waging a deadly insurgency against Afghan security forces and their U.S.-led NATO partners.

The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021 when all U.S.-led foreign troops withdrew from the country after battling the insurgents for nearly two decades.

Since then, the new Islamist rulers have instructed Afghan women to cover their faces in public and avoid long road trips unless accompanied by a male relative. Most female public sector employees have been told to stay at home, and teenage girls are barred from attending secondary schools from grade seven to 12.

Foreign governments have not yet formally recognized the Taliban, saying they need to ease curbs on women if they want legitimacy for their rule.

The Taliban dismiss criticism of their governance, maintaining it is in line with Afghan culture and Islamic law.
…

India will expand economic ties with Russia and continue to buy oil from Moscow, India’s foreign minister said, pointing out that imports of discounted crude from Moscow have worked to its advantage.

Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said during a visit to Moscow that as the world’s third-largest consumer of oil, it is “our fundamental obligation” to ensure that Indian consumers have the “best possible access on the most advantageous terms to international markets.”

He made his comments after a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday.

In his first visit to Russia since the Ukrainian conflict erupted, the Indian minister reaffirmed New Delhi’s longstanding ties with Moscow calling it an “exceptionally steady” and “time-tested relationship.”

“Any objective evaluation of our relationship over many decades would confirm that it has actually served both our countries very, very well,” Jaishankar told reporters in response to a question about pressure from Western countries to reduce oil imports and join a plan by the Group of Seven countries to impose a price cap on Russian oil.

The Indian foreign minister visited Moscow days before a scheduled visit by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to India for talks that are likely to include the price cap proposal.

In an interview with the Press Trust of India in Washington, Yellen said India could benefit from a Western price cap.

“We want Russian oil to continue to supply global markets, stay on the market. But we want to make sure that Russia doesn’t profit unduly from the war by enjoying prices that are essentially very high due to the war,” Yellen told PTI on Monday.

Under the price cap plan that is expected to be in place in early December, European companies will be allowed to transport and insure shipments of Russian crude as long as it is sold below a fixed price that has yet to be determined by the G-7 nations. The plan aims at further deflating prices of Russian oil.

“Our objective is to hold down the price that Russia receives for its oil and keep that oil trading. The gainers from this will be particularly those countries that do buy cheap Russian oil, and our hope would be that India would take advantage of this price cap, though its firms are bargaining with Russia,” Yellen said.

Yellen will be in India on Friday to co-chair a dialogue (U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership) along with her Indian counterpart, Nirmala Sitharaman.

India has not directly commented on the price cap plan — Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Puri said last month that “we will have a look at it.”

India and China have become the biggest buyers of Russian oil since the Ukraine conflict. In October, Moscow was the largest supplier to India, surpassing traditional suppliers Iraq and Saudi Arabia as oil imports from Russia increased exponentially from about 1% before the Ukraine invasion to about 20%.

The surging oil imports have led to a huge jump in bilateral trade between the two countries.

During his Moscow visit, Jaishankar also said that India “strongly advocates” a return to dialogue and diplomacy to resolve the conflict and said that New Delhi was ready to support any initiative to, as he termed it, “de-risk” the global economy.

Jaishankar’s trip came amid speculation that India could be a potential negotiator in efforts to end the conflict.

New Delhi has not explicitly condemned Russia for the Ukraine invasion and abstained from United Nations resolutions critical of Moscow’s aggression, but it has repeatedly said that it opposes the conflict.
…