DRULAP

U.S. President Donald Trump has said, “The Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting.” Beijing rebuffed those plans, saying it opposes forced displacement of Palestinians to neighboring countries. How will a Gaza takeover plan impact the U.S.-China competition in the Middle East?

Click here for the full story in Mandarin. 
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Impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol appeared in two Seoul courtrooms Thursday, first to hear criminal insurrection charges and then to face a Constitutional Court impeachment trial, both in connection with his short-lived, Dec. 3 imposition of martial law.

Yoon was taken by motorcade from the Seoul Detention Center, where he is being held, to the Central District Court for the preliminary hearing on the insurrection charges prosecutors filed last month.

In that hearing, Yoon’s lawyers argued that his declaration of martial law was not intended to paralyze the state, but to “alert the public to the national crisis caused by the legislative dictatorship of the dominant opposition party, which had crippled the administration.”

The lawyers also asked for Yoon’s release from detention, although it was unclear when the court would rule on that request.

Yoon next traveled to the Constitutional Court for the tenth and final scheduled hearing in the trial over validity of his impeachment for declaring martial law.

In Yoon’s first appearance at that trial, the court heard testimony from Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, who was also impeached by National Assembly lawmakers for his role in the early December declaration. Yoon briefly left the courtroom during Han’s testimony, with Yoon’s lawyers explaining they felt it was inappropriate for the two to be seen together.

Han told the court that while he shared Yoon’s views on the liberal opposition, he and the rest of the cabinet disagreed with the president’s declaration of martial law and even tried to dissuade him. To his knowledge, the prime minister added, none of the cabinet members supported the action.

The Constitutional Court is reviewing parliament’s Dec. 14 vote to impeach Yoon and will decide whether to permanently remove him from office or reinstate him.

The court is considering if Yoon violated the constitution while Yoon and his lawyers have argued that he never intended to fully impose martial law but had only meant the measures as a warning to break a political deadlock.

If Yoon is removed, a new presidential election must be held within 60 days. The court is expected to deliver its ruling in early or mid-March.

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press, Reuters and Agence France-Presse.
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SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA — The vast majority of human rights groups focused on North Korea face an existential crisis after receiving notices from the U.S. government that their grant funds have been frozen, according to several sources among the predominantly Seoul-based NGOs. 

The National Endowment for Democracy, or NED, established by Congress to strengthen democratic institutions globally, and the State Department’s Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor Bureau, which provide most of the groups’ funding, sent the notices over the last several weeks, according to documents reviewed by VOA.

The freeze threatens to devastate an already fragile collection of North Korea human rights groups, potentially wiping out vital sources of advocacy and research on one of the world’s most closed and repressive states, which has a population of 25 million.

Hanna Song, executive director of the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights, told VOA her organization, like many others in Seoul, is now in “survival mode” because of the funding freeze.

“I just really don’t know how many will be able to survive,” said Song, whose organization works directly with North Koreans who have fled the North and has long been a key repository of data on Pyongyang’s abuses.

Trump policy shift

The funding freeze is part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s broader push to reshape the federal bureaucracy and realign taxpayer spending with his “America First” agenda, in coordination with billionaire businessman Elon Musk.

The NED has been repeatedly attacked by Musk, who has called it a “scam” and an “evil organization [that] needs to be dissolved.”

In a message sent last week to several North Korea-focused human rights organizations, the NED said it has “unfortunately been unable to access our previously approved funds” and “may not be able to provide additional payments to your organization.”

“Once you run out of money, consider your NED grant agreement suspended,” the message added.

Meanwhile, a January 24 notice from the State Department bureau ordered organizations receiving grants to immediately stop all work, even if already funded. 

The bureau has reportedly fired dozens of contractors and is also subject to a Trump executive order suspending foreign aid for 90 days. Although aid could theoretically resume, the pause has already had devastating consequences for many North Korea advocacy groups.

Survival mode

Song’s Seoul-based center, whose mission includes providing psychosocial support to North Korean defectors, has had to postpone counseling sessions while they look for new funding, Song said.

“It’s just absolutely destroying groups working on North Korea,” said Sokeel Park, South Korea country director at Liberty in North Korea, which helps North Korean defectors escape and resettle. “It’s by far the biggest crisis facing NGOs working on this issue since the start of the movement in the 1990s,” he said in an interview.

Although the group does not receive direct U.S. government funding, Park said other organizations have been forced to reduce salaries, furlough staff, or halt projects midstream.

The freeze threatens a broad range of activities, including support for North Koreans who have fled, efforts to transmit information into and out of the country, and raising global awareness of its abuses.

The crisis comes at a time when gaining insight into North Korea is more challenging than ever. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, strict border controls have made escapes rare and slowed the flow of information, leaving the outside world with extremely little insight into the reclusive country.

This isolation has coincided with a decline in global attention to North Korea more generally, which has made it harder for organizations to diversify their funding sources, activists say.

Seoul’s inconsistency

While South Korea, a wealthy democracy bordering the North, might seem like a natural alternative source of funds, it has failed to consistently support North Korea-focused NGOs, mainly because the issue is politically sensitive in Seoul. 

Conservative governments, which take a harder line on the North, often condemn its human rights abuses and provide more backing for civil society groups. In contrast, left-leaning governments tend to focus on improving ties with Pyongyang, favoring humanitarian aid directly to the North Korean government in the hope that better relations will eventually lead to improved human rights.

South Korea’s inconsistency on the issue is unfortunate, Lee Jung-hoon, former South Korean ambassador for North Korean human rights under conservative President Park Geun-hye told VOA.

“In fact, we should be the ones providing funding to American NGOs working on North Korea… we should be at the forefront of this,” Lee, now a dean and professor of international relations at Seoul’s Yonsei University, said.

After taking office in 2022, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pledged to improve North Korea’s “horrendous” human rights situation. However, in December, Yoon unexpectedly declared martial law to combat what he called “anti-state forces,” leading to his impeachment and possible removal from office.

With Yoon’s future uncertain, the left-leaning Democratic Party is seen as the favorite to reclaim the presidency. Such political volatility has made many NGOs hesitant to accept South Korean government funding, fearing it could be easily withdrawn.

As a result, many organizations have felt compelled to rely on U.S. government funding – primarily from NED and the State Department. With that money now frozen, many groups are scrambling to fill the gaps by seeking support from European governments and major private donors, Park said.

North Korea-focused groups, though, are competing with countless global causes for limited funds.

Song said no one wants to be in a position where they’re saying North Korea is a more important issue events in Myanmar or Syria, “But it’s gotten to the point where it’s just survival mode.”
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Islamabad — Afghanistan’s radical Taliban leaders on Thursday rejected the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC) over their country, declaring as ‘unlawful’ the decision in 2003 by their predecessors to join the Hague-based court’s founding treaty.

The decision follows the ICC chief prosecutor’s announcement last month, seeking arrest warrants for the reclusive Taliban supreme leader, Hibatullah Akhundzada, and a close associate, accusing them both of being “criminally responsible for persecuting Afghan girls and women.”

The Taliban militarily regained power in August 2021, succeeding the internationally recognized government in Kabul, which collapsed alongside the withdrawal of U.S.-led NATO troops after nearly two decades in Afghanistan. 

The Taliban, now governing as the Islamic Emirate, have imposed their strict interpretation of Islamic law, known as Sharia, placing sweeping restrictions on freedom of speech and women’s access to education and public roles in society.

No country has recognized the Taliban as a legitimate government primarily over their harsh treatment of Afghan women and girls.

“As an entity that upholds the religious and national values of the Afghan people within the framework of Islamic Sharia, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan does not recognize any obligation to the Rome Statute or the institution referred to as the ‘International Criminal Court,’” the Taliban stated in an English-language declaration. 

It accused the ICC of political bias and failing to take any “substantive measures against the war crimes perpetrated in Afghanistan by occupying forces and their allies.”

“Given that many of the world’s major powers are not signatories to this ‘court,’ it is unwarranted for a nation such as Afghanistan, which has historically endured foreign occupation and colonial subjugation, to be bound by its jurisdiction,” the Taliban asserted. 

In October 2001, Western forces led by the U.S. invaded Afghanistan, overthrowing the then-Taliban government for sheltering al-Qaida leaders held responsible for the terrorist attacks in the United States that occurred in September of that year. 

In February 2003, the Washington-backed successive government in Kabul formally deposited its instrument of accession to the Rome Statute, which founded the ICC, thereby granting the court jurisdiction over crimes committed within its territory or by Afghan nationals.

“In light of the aforementioned considerations, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan formally asserts that it does not recognize any legal obligation under the Rome Statute and deems the previous administration’s accession to this statute to be devoid of legal validity,” said Thursday’s Taliban statement.  

Karim Khan, the ICC prosecutor, stated in his January 23 announcement that his decision to seek arrest warrants for Akhundzada and Taliban chief justice, Abdul Hakim Haqqani, was based on a thorough investigation and evidence collected into their alleged crimes against humanity.

The ICC is mandated to rule on the world’s worst offenses, such as war crimes and crimes against humanity. The court has no police force and relies on 125 member states to execute its arrest warrants.

Akhundzada seldom leaves his office in the southern Afghan city of Kandahar and rules the country through religious decrees. He has banned girls’ education beyond the sixth grade and prohibited women from most public as well as private sector employment, among other restrictions on their rights. 

In a speech he delivered in Kandahar last week, the Taliban chief again dismissed criticism of his governance, asserting that it was rooted in divine commands. A government spokesperson quoted Akhundzada as stating that “every decree he issues is based on consultation with scholars and derived from the Quran and Hadith [sayings of Islam’s prophet] and represents commands of Allah.”
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TOKYO — Vietnam approved plans on Wednesday for a multibillion-dollar railway with China, boosting links between the two communist countries.

Around the region, China has been financing railways under its Belt and Road Initiative, which funds infrastructure projects globally but has come under fire with a number of plans stalled or mired in controversy.

Here are some of the key installments in Asia’s China-backed railway network:

Indonesia: Southeast Asia first

Indonesia launched Southeast Asia’s first high-speed railway in October 2023, after years of delays.

The $7 billion China-backed project links the capital Jakarta to the city of Bandung in 45 minutes — slashing the journey by about two hours.

Built by a joint venture of four Indonesian state companies and Beijing’s China Railway International Co, it was initially set to cost less than $5 billion and be completed by 2019. But construction challenges and the pandemic led to delays and surging expenses.

Indonesia’s then-president Joko Widodo nevertheless hailed its opening as a symbol of modernization.

Laos: On the move

Laos unveiled its $6 billion Chinese-built railroad in 2021, bringing hopes of an economic boost despite backlash after thousands of farmers had to be evicted to make way for construction.

The 414-kilometer route connects the Chinese city of Kunming to Laotian capital Vientiane, with plans for the high-speed line to ultimately reach Singapore.

Infrastructure-poor Laos, a reclusive communist country of about 7.4 million people, previously had only four kilometers of railway tracks.

It was hoped that the railway would boost the Southeast Asian country’s ailing tourism industry, which struggled to rebound from the pandemic.

But experts also raised concerns over whether cash-strapped Laos — where public debt made up 116% of GDP in 2023 — would ever be able to pay back Beijing.

Thailand: Full steam ahead

After long delays, Thailand is pressing ahead with a Chinese-backed high-speed line set to partially open in 2028.

The $5.4 billion project aims to expand the connection to Kunming, running to Bangkok via Laos by 2032.

Thailand already has nearly 5,000 kilometers of railway but the sluggish, run-down network has long driven people to favor road travel — despite extremely high accident rates.

When the new railroad is fully complete, Chinese-made trains will run from Bangkok to Nong Khai, on the border with Laos, at up to 250 kph.

Unlike Laos, Thailand signed a deal to cover project expenditures itself and has pitched it as a way to boost the economy through trade with China.

China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan: Bridge to Europe

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov inaugurated construction in December of a railway linking China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, with hopes it will serve as a supply route to Europe.

“This route will ensure supply of goods from China to Kyrgyzstan and then onto Central Asia” and nearby countries “including Turkey” and “even to the European Union,” he said.

The project, which Kyrgyz authorities estimate could cost up to $8 billion, includes construction through mountains and in areas of permafrost, where the ground never fully thaws.

Vietnam: Link to manufacturing hubs

Vietnam this week approved an $8 billion railroad running from its largest northern port city to China.

The line will operate through some of Vietnam’s key manufacturing hubs, home to Samsung, Foxconn and Pegatron factories, many of which rely on components from China.

Another yet-to-be-approved line to China would connect Hanoi to Lang Son province, traveling through more areas packed with manufacturing facilities.

Malaysia: Back on track

Malaysia has revived construction of a nearly $17 billion railroad to carry passengers and freight between shipping ports on its east and west coasts.

The China-backed, 665-kilometer project was originally launched in 2011 under ex-leader Najib Razak but shelved due to a dispute about payments.

After blowing past several deadlines and budgets, it now looks set to be operational by 2027.

Pakistan, Myanmar, Philippines: Stalled

In Pakistan, a railway linking southwestern Gwadar Port with China’s northwestern Xinjiang province has long been on the cards but has yet to materialize.

If the project moves ahead, a 2023 Chinese study estimated an eyewatering price tag of $58 billion.

In coup-hit Myanmar, talks on building a railway from Mandalay to China’s Yunnan province appear to have stalled.

And in the Philippines, plans for China to fund three railways flopped after Manila backed out of talks in 2023 as the South China Sea dispute heated up. 
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Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has praised the recent U.S.-Russia talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

“This is a good initiative; it is also beneficial for Kazakhstan,” he said. “We will try to support it as much as possible.”

Tokayev’s comments are the first official response from Central Asia to the talks, which sparked serious international debate. Central Asia has been officially neutral in the Ukrainian war and has been largely silent on the three-year-old conflict. 

Click here for the full story in the Uzbek. 
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WASHINGTON — The Vietnam National Assembly on Wednesday gave a near-unanimous approval to a railway bill that allows the country to utilize Chinese loans for the construction of a new $8.3 billion link aimed at improving transport connections between the two neighboring countries.

The country’s rubber-stamp parliament gave the go-ahead to the project, with 455 of the 459 members voting for the project.

The approval marks a significant step forward in Vietnam’s infrastructure modernization efforts, as the country seeks to boost connectivity and economic growth, local media reported.

The 427-kilometer railway project will run from the Vietnam-China border gate at Lao Cai-Hekou, through the capital of Hanoi and port city of Haiphong, to Ha Long City, the official Vietnam News Agency reported.

It is one of two railway lines to China that Vietnam plans as part of its “Two Corridors, One Belt” initiative, which connects to Beijing’s Belt and Road global infrastructure program.

Phase 1 of the project will build a single-track standard gauge rail with a designed speed of 160 kph. Phase 2 will upgrade it to a double-track line able to support a speed of 200 kph.

The government has proposed paying for the project with money from the state budget, domestic capital sources and loans, including from the Chinese government.

The Vietnam News Agency reported that the railway will be financed through a concessional loan provided by the Chinese government. Funding will also be sourced from the Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank), the news agency said.

Neither Vietnam nor China disclosed the amount of the loan.

“Investing in a new railway line ensures meeting transportation needs, restructuring the transportation market shares, reducing logistics costs and ensuring sustainable development,” Le Quang Tung, general secretary of Vietnam’s 15th legislature, told Vietnam Television (VTV).

Minister of Construction Nguyen Hong Minh, formerly the transport minister, highlighted the necessity of the project during a parliamentary session last week. He emphasized that Vietnam’s current railway system is outdated and insufficient for the nation’s needs.

The government hopes the new railway will stimulate economic development by improving transportation efficiency between major cities and regions.

Tran Thanh Canh, a poet and resident in Hanoi, told VOA by phone that he welcomed the Vietnamese National Assembly’s approval of the railway project.

“This project should have been done a long time ago, to connect the western part of China via the shortest route to the sea at Hai Phong port. It brings many economic benefits to both Vietnam and China,” he said. “This is a very necessary project and suitable for the economic development of both countries.”

The plan to build these major railway lines is part of Beijing’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative and was agreed upon during meetings between Vietnamese General Secretary To Lam and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in late August 2024, as well as between Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Chinese Prime Minister Li Cuong in Hanoi in mid-October 2024.

“The project comes with both advantages and disadvantages for Vietnam as the borrower, but the disadvantages are predominant,” Nguyen Minh Le, a longtime expert in China-Vietnam relations in California, told VOA by phone.

Nguyen said Xi has recently narrowed down the scope of the BRI and just focused on neighboring countries like Vietnam.

“Vietnam has actively become engaged in China’s BRI projects and receiving funding. It should stay cautious about sovereignty and autonomy because of Chinese debt-trap diplomacy,” Nguyen added.

The new rail line will run through some of Vietnam’s key manufacturing hubs, home to Samsung, Foxconn, Pegatron and other global giants, many of whom rely on a regular flow of components from China, Agence France-Presse reported.

“Railway infrastructure projects are hugely expensive, incur numerous land rights and environmental issues and nearly always run over budget and deadline. Even if these projects are approved, it will be many years before passengers jump on board,” Gary Bowerman, director of Check-in Asia, a travel and hospitality research company, told VOA by email.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun on Wednesday said that since last year, China and Vietnam have exchanged views on multiple occasions on enhancing railway connectivity between the two countries.

“The two sides agreed to accelerate the feasibility study of the Lao Cai-Hanoi-Hai Phong standard-gauge railway, speed up the plan compilation of the Dong Dang-Hanoi standard-gauge railway and the Mong Cai-Ha Long-Hai Phong standard-gauge railway, and advance the work of building a standard-gauge railway connection point between Hekou and Lao Cai,” Guo said during a news conference in Beijing.

Vietnam’s Ministry of Transport has indicated that more details on the bidding process and project timeline will be released in the coming months.

The project is expected to take approximately six years to complete following its approval and the finalization of the loan agreement, according to the Vietnam Railway Authority.

Some information for this report came from Agence France-Presse. 
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GENEVA — The World Trade Organization said on Wednesday that discussions on trade tensions were “constructive,” after China accused the United States of imposing “tariff shocks” that could upend the global trading system.

China condemned tariffs launched or threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump at a WTO meeting on Tuesday. Washington dismissed China’s comments as hypocritical.

Trump has announced sweeping 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond with retaliatory tariffs and to file a WTO dispute against Washington in what could be an early test of Trump’s stance towards the institution.

The majority of the six countries that participated in the talks on trade turbulence, put on the agenda by China, raised concern about mounting tensions, but also called for restraint, said WTO spokesperson Ismaila Dieng in a press conference in Geneva on Wednesday.

The United States, Nicaragua, Namibia, Malaysia, Trinidad and Tobago, and Russia took part in the discussions, which were part of broader talks on trade.

The large majority “stressed the importance of upholding WTO principles and values and called for action to preserve the stability and effectiveness of the global trading system,” Dieng added.

Two trade sources at the meeting told Reuters that some countries expressed deep concern about the ramifications of tariffs, while others criticized China for alleged market distortions.

It is the first time that mounting trade frictions were formally addressed on the agenda of the watchdog’s top decision-making body, the General Council.

‘Tariff shocks’

“These ‘tariff shocks’ heighten economic uncertainty, disrupt global trade, and risk domestic inflation, market distortion, or even global recession,” China’s ambassador to the WTO, Li Chenggang, said at a closed-door meeting of the global trade body on Tuesday, according to a statement sent to Reuters.

“Worse, the U.S. unilateralism threatens to upend the rules-based multilateral trading system.”

U.S. envoy David Bisbee called China’s economy a “predatory non-market economic system” in response and accused it of violating and evading WTO rules.

Negotiating tactic

Some delegates said they saw China’s intervention as an attempt to show itself supporting WTO rules — a posture that can help China win allies in ongoing global trade negotiations.

Disputes between the two top economies at the WTO long pre-date Trump’s arrival. Beijing has accused Washington of breaking rules while Washington says Beijing does not deserve its “developing country” status at the WTO.

The Trump administration has announced plans to withdraw or disengage from other global organizations, but the WTO has not yet been a major focus for the White House.

However, incoming U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has called the WTO “deeply flawed.”
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TAIPEI, TAIWAN — Philippine defense officials say they will hold a large, 10-day military training exercise next month, aiming to strengthen the country’s ability to respond to any crisis caused by an “external threat.”

Although Manila did not name China explicitly when it announced the drills — the biggest in recent years — they come as Beijing has increased the frequency of its maritime patrols and coast guard maneuvers around several disputed reefs that lie within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone, or EEZ.

Several of those patrols have resulted in clashes and the use of aggressive maneuvers and accusations of vessel ramming. China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea as its own despite an international ruling to the contrary, insists that its actions have been in accordance with the law.

The Combined Arms Training Exercise, or Catex, will take place March 3-12, involving approximately 6,000 soldiers and live-fire drills involving some of the Philippines’ most advanced artillery weapons.

Expanded drills

In the announcement on Monday, defense officials said that unlike past exercises, this year’s Catex will be conducted across the archipelago, including the northern island of Luzon, the island of Visayas in Central Philippines, and the southern island of Mindanao.

The expanded drills will “strengthen our command-and-control capabilities, further enhancing our preparedness to respond to any challenge that may threaten our national security,” Philippine Army Chief Lieutenant General Roy Galido told media during a news conference on Monday.

Typhon missile system

While the Philippine military is expected to test the Autonomous Truck-Mounted Howitzer Systems, its largest artillery weapon, during the live-fire drills, Galido said the U.S.-made Typhon missile system, which has prompted concerns from China, won’t be part of the large-scale exercise.

The Philippine military is still “appreciating the system and being able to understand how to utilize it in our defense concept,” he told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post in an interview on Monday.

The deployment of the Typhon missile system to the northern Philippines has prompted concerns from China. During a press conference Friday, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang urged Manila to “remove the [Typhon] system as soon as possible.”

Analysts say the Philippines should focus on building up anti-ship missile capabilities and procuring more unmanned aerial vehicles rather than buying expensive items like submarines, which the Philippines is reportedly considering purchasing from India.

“The anti-ship missiles can survive in a modern war with China, and it can really force the Chinese military planners to rethink their strategies,” Zachary Abuza, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at the National War College in Washington, told VOA by phone.

Other experts say the military drills and the ongoing efforts to acquire missile or air defense systems are part of the Philippines’ attempt to strengthen its sea capabilities and deterrence against China.

“Given the Philippines’ limited materiel capabilities, these efforts are part of a long-term endeavor that will need continuity to ensure the Philippines will be able to muster the capabilities to pursue the objective of countering China’s maritime aggression,” Don McLain Gill, a lecturer in international studies at De La Salle University in the Philippines, told VOA in a recorded voice message.

‘Aggressive’ China action

The announcement of the drills comes amid another uptick in tensions between China and the Philippines after a Chinese navy helicopter allegedly flew within 10 feet of a Philippine patrol plane near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Tuesday.

The Philippine coast guard characterized the Chinese aircraft’s actions as “aggressive and escalatory” and said they remained “committed to asserting our sovereignty, sovereign rights and maritime jurisdiction” in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, Southern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army — China’s military — accused the Philippine aircraft of “illegally” intruding on the airspace above Scarborough Shoal, which China views as its territory, and said its troops “are resolute in defending national sovereignty and security as well as peace and stability in the South China Sea.”

Weakest link?

Experts say the latest incident reflects Beijing’s attempt to test the Philippines’ defense capabilities and the United States’ commitment to supporting Manila, which has a mutual defense treaty with Washington.

“China sees the Philippines as the weakest link in the U.S. security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region, so they are testing how effective Manila can push back against its assertive behaviors,” Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University in Japan, told VOA by phone.

He said while it’s important for the Philippines to strengthen defense cooperation with like-minded democracies, including conducting joint patrols and military exercises, Manila should also carefully calibrate its responses to Chinese aggression.

The Philippines’ response should “reciprocate the pressure that the Chinese are putting on them because the Chinese strategic mindset is based on the idea of active defense, which means when they pressure their opponents to escalate the conflict, that gives them the right to escalate their behaviors,” Nagy said.

New legal challenge possible

In addition to strengthening defense capabilities, the Reuters news agency reported last month that the Philippines may soon initiate a second legal challenge against China over the South China Sea by suing Beijing for allegedly damaging the marine environment.

Despite the report, Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said in response to a question from VOA during a public event held by the London-based think tank Chatham House on Tuesday that Manila has no plan to launch a legal challenge against China right now.

Joshua Espena, a lecturer of international relations at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines, told VOA that since the Philippines is gearing up for the parliamentary election in May, Manila is unlikely to initiate a new legal challenge against China at this point. “The 2016 South China Sea Arbitration ruling gives the Philippines sufficient ground to do what the government needs to do,” he said.

As the U.S. focuses on facilitating a peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, Nagy said, China will likely maintain its pressure campaign against the Philippines in the coming months.
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