DRULAP

HELSINKI — A zoo in Finland has agreed with Chinese authorities to return two loaned giant pandas to China more than eight years ahead of schedule because they have become too expensive for the facility to maintain as the number of visitors has declined.

The private Ahtari Zoo in central Finland some 330 kilometers north of Helsinki said Wednesday on its Facebook page that the female panda Lumi, Finnish for “snow,” and the male panda Pyry, meaning “snowfall,” will return “prematurely” to China later this year.

The panda pair was China’s gift to mark the Nordic nation’s 100 years of independence in 2017, and they were supposed to be on loan until 2033.

But since then, the zoo has experienced several challenges, including a decline in visitors due to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s war against Ukraine, as well as an increase in inflation and interest rates, the facility said in a statement.

The panda deal between Helsinki and Beijing, a 15-year loan agreement, had been finalized in April 2017 when Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Finland for talks with then-Finnish President Sauli Niinisto. The pandas arrived in Finland in January 2018.

The Ahtari Zoo, which specializes in typical northern European animals such as bears, lynxes and wolverines, built a special annex at a cost of about $9 million in hopes of luring more tourists to the remote nature reserve.

The upkeep of Lumi and Pyry, including a preservation fee to China, cost the zoo $1.7 million annually. The bamboo that giant pandas eat was flown in from the Netherlands.

The Chinese Embassy in Helsinki noted to Finnish media that Beijing had tried to help Ahtari solve its financial difficulties by urging Chinese companies operating in Finland to make donations to the zoo and supporting its debt arrangements.

However, declining visitor numbers combined with drastic changes in the economic environment proved too high a burden for the smallish Finnish zoo. The panda pair will enter a monthlong quarantine in late October before being shipped back to China.

Finland, a country of 5.6 million people, was among the first Western nations to establish political ties with China, doing so in 1950. China has presented giant pandas to countries as a sign of goodwill and closer political ties, and Finland was the first Nordic nation to receive them.
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ISLAMABAD — Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban confirmed Wednesday that they have formally sought to join the upcoming Russia-hosted summit of the BRICS intergovernmental group of major emerging economies.

The leaders of the 10 members of BRICS, which stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are set to convene October 22-24 in the southwestern Russian city of Kazan for the meeting. Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates joined the bloc this year.

“BRICS is an important economic forum, and as a developing economy, Afghanistan needs to join such economic gatherings,” Hamdullah Fitrat, the deputy Taliban spokesperson, stated in a video message aired by their official broadcaster.

“The Islamic Emirate is seeking a presence at the upcoming BRICS forum, and the request has been formally communicated to the host nation,” Fitrat stated, using the official title of their government in Kabul, which is officially not recognized by any country. He shared no further details.

There has been no immediate Russian response to the Taliban’s assertion.

Moscow has developed close informal ties with the de facto Afghan leaders since they retook control of the conflict-ravaged nation three years ago, when the United States-led Western countries withdrew their troops after almost two decades of war with the then-insurgent Taliban.

However, Russia has not recognized the Taliban as a legitimate government in alignment with the global consensus on the issue of recognition. Taliban delegations have repeatedly visited Moscow in recent months for bilateral economic and trade discussions.

The Russian foreign and justice ministries submitted a proposal to President Vladimir Putin in June to remove the radical Afghan group from Russia’s list of designated terrorist organizations. The move prompted speculations that Moscow has come closer to officially recognizing the de facto Kabul authorities.   

The Taliban have been on Russia’s list of transnational militant groups, which includes al-Qaida, since 2003.

The de facto Afghan leaders have implemented their strict interpretation of Islamic law, known as sharia, in the impoverished South Asian nation, prohibiting Afghan girls from attending schools beyond the sixth grade, suspending female students from universities, barring women from most workplaces, and banning music.

The Taliban also have introduced stoning and public executions of women for crimes such as adultery.

The U.N. and other nations

The international community, including the United Nations, has consistently called for the urgent reversal of restrictions on women before considering granting diplomatic legitimacy to the Taliban regime.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told a meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly this week that the Taliban’s treatment of women can be compared to “some of the most egregious systems of oppression in recent history.”

“We will continue to amplify the voices of Afghan women and call for them to play a full role in the country’s life, both inside its borders and on the global stage,” he said.

U.N. officials maintain that last month’s enactment of a morality law by the Taliban has made it even more challenging to recognize Kabul rulers.

Taliban leaders reject criticism of their governance, saying it is aligned with local culture and sharia.

“It means that one of the major obstacles to Afghanistan’s full reintegration into the international community cannot be part of a necessary dialogue,” Roza Otunbayeva, the head of the U.N. Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, told a Security Council meeting last week.

China and the Taliban

China has also ramped up its political and economic ties with Kabul and is one of two countries, along with the United Arab Emirates, that have formally accepted a Taliban-appointed ambassador.

On Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a news conference that Beijing expects the Taliban to “look at the legitimate concerns” of the global community.

“That said, women’s rights and interests are not the entirety of the Afghan issue, nor the core or root cause of the issue,” Lin said. He referenced the U.N. estimates stating that almost 24 million people in Afghanistan need humanitarian assistance, with more than half of them battling severe food insecurity.

“The international community needs to focus on the most pressing difficulties Afghanistan faces, promote the rebuilding and development in Afghanistan … and at the same time encourage, in the spirit of equality and respect, the governing authorities of Afghanistan to improve and strengthen protection of women and children’s rights,” Lin stated.

Chinese companies have signed several agreements with the Taliban to enhance economic and trade cooperation, focusing mainly on the Afghan mining sector.

Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi told a news conference in Kabul last week that his government controlled about 40 Afghan embassies and consulates worldwide, and that its diplomatic relations with the international community were improving. He stated that the Taliban are keen to develop “friendly” ties with Western nations.

The U.S. and the West at large insist that formal recognition of the Taliban depends on their actions regarding women’s rights, education for girls and women and freedom of movement.
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BANGKOK — Thailand’s exports rose for a second straight month in August, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday as it maintained its forecast of 1% to 2% growth this year despite the baht strengthening to 30-month highs against the U.S. dollar.

With demand picking up in key markets, further export growth was expected this year and it could even come in above forecast, although the baht’s rise would impact Q4 shipments, said Poonpong Naiyanapakorn, head of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office.

Exports, a key driver of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, rose 7% in August from a year earlier, and followed July’s 15.2% rise, which was the fastest growth in 28 months. Economists in a Reuters poll had expected a rise of 5.8%

Imports rose 8.9% in August from a year earlier, compared with a forecast rise of 7.30% in the poll.

That led to a trade surplus of $0.26 billion in August, compared with a forecast deficit of $0.07 billion.

In the first 8 months of 2024, exports rose 4.2% from a year earlier, while imports rose 5.2%, with the cumulative trade deficit at $6.35 billion.

The baht has risen 4.6% since the beginning of the year, with large gains seen in the past month, to be the region’s second-strongest performing currency after Malaysia’s ringgit.

“The stronger baht is impacting liquidity and profits, especially for agricultural goods,” said Chaichan Chareonsuk, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council.

“Some business could take a loss when negotiating new orders or not get orders,” he said.

The Finance Ministry and central bank are due to meet next week to discuss currency appreciation and inflation target.

The Bank of Thailand said it was closely monitoring the currency and was ready to reduce volatility.

For August, shipments to the United States rose 3% from a year earlier, while exports to China was up 6.7% but those to Japan were down 11.3%.

Last month, rice exports rose 39.5% from a year earlier to 885,387 metric tons, and were up 46.6% in value terms to $562 million.
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New Delhi — Catapulted to power on an anti-corruption platform, Sri Lanka’s new Marxist-leaning president, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, faces an uphill task in meeting his commitments to clean up the country’s political culture and improving lives for millions mired in poverty since the country’s economic collapse two years ago, say analysts.

With his party having only three lawmakers in the 225-member parliament, Dissanayake has called for fresh elections a year ahead of schedule to choose a new house that could give him wider support for the sweeping reforms that he has promised.

“Dissanayake’s hope would be to secure a comfortable majority in parliament,” according to Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political analyst in the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo, told VOA. “In the past, it was customary for mainstream parties to bribe opposition lawmakers to join them, but his main plank is clean governance, so he will need to win the numbers.”

In a country that rejected mainstream parties in the presidential polls, there is what Uyangoda calls a “very good chance” that he will be able to substantially improve his party’s parliamentary tally. Elections will be held on Nov. 14.

Currently, Dissanayake has the smallest cabinet in the country’s history as he lacks the numbers for a full-fledged cabinet. He has named a new prime minister, Harini Amarasuriya, and two ministers — in Sri Lanka, only lawmakers can be appointed as ministers.

Winning wider support will be crucial. “Otherwise attempts to deliver on his election promises can be blocked by knee-jerk opposition, due to differences in ideology or political opportunism,” Rajni Gamage, a research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told VOA.

Meeting expectations of relief from the punishing austerity measures imposed by a $ 2.9 billion bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund is the first big test Dissanayake faces. He will handle the key finance portfolio.

His pledge to renegotiate Sri Lanka’s deal with the IMF – which he says is not favorable to working class citizens — will not be easy at a time when the country is still heavily debt-ridden and has limited room to expand welfare measures. The package has helped steer the economy back to a nascent growth path, but the government will need to stick to the program’s criteria of keeping the budget deficit in check.

An IMF spokesman in Washington said on Monday that it looked forward to working with President Dissanayake “towards building on the hard-won gains that have helped put Sri Lanka on a path to economic recovery.”

While options for providing relief may be limited, analysts said Dissanayake is expected to reduce income taxes for lower income groups and lower taxes on food and medicine.

There is also concern among the business community about the position the Marxist leader, the son of a laborer, will take on free market policies.

The policies of his Marxist party, Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, are aligned with protectionism, according to Gamage. “Their party’s economic growth policy is woven around prioritizing industrialization and domestic manufacturing, supporting local businesses and agriculture.”

However, Dissanayake now heads a coalition, the National People’s Power, an umbrella group of small political parties, youth, civil society and women’s groups and trade unions.

In recent years he has also moderated his party’s hard-left stance and said he believes in an open economy.

“The business class is uneasy because of the Marxist tradition to which he belongs. But my sense is that Dissanayake is a very pragmatic and rational man,” Jehan Perera, who heads the National Peace Council in Colombo, told VOA. “And the coalition the president heads is not a Marxist group.”

Delivering on the clean governance he has promised could also face a pushback.

“Corruption is very deep-seated in the system. It is endemic in society and goes from top to bottom, so rooting it out is very tough,” said Perera. “He will face strong vested interests to rebuild a system that has broken down. But on the positive side, he has the support of the people.”

After taking the oath of office, Dissanayake sounded a note of caution amid the widespread optimism raised by his victory among millions of Sri Lankans, saying he is not a “magician” but an “ordinary citizen.”

“There are things I know and don’t know. My aim is to gather those with the knowledge and skills to help lift this country,” he said on Monday.

The coming months will be crucial for a country that is navigating a vastly altered political landscape.

“The management of the economic crisis and management of public expectations will be his biggest challenge, otherwise discontent will grow again,” said analyst Uyangoda. “Past leaders have all belonged to the political elite. This is the first time there is a president who belongs to the working class, so the hopes of the ordinary people are very, very high.”
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MANILA, Philippines — Developing Asia is on track to grow 5% this year, supported by strong consumption and high demand for tech exports, the Asian Development Bank forecast on Wednesday, and said China was expected to roll out more economic support measures.

In an update to its Asian Development Outlook report, the ADB left most growth projections for economies in the region unchanged from its July report, maintaining its growth outlook for developing Asia at 5.0% this year and 4.9% next year.

It revised down its inflation forecasts for developing Asia, which groups 46 countries in the Asia-Pacific, to 2.8% for this year and 2.9% for next year from previous forecasts of 2.9% and 3.0%, respectively.

The Manila-based lender highlighted some downside risks to its outlook, including rising protectionism, escalating geopolitical tensions, adverse weather conditions, and a deterioration in China’s property market.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, is battling deflationary pressures, and struggling to lift growth despite a series of policy measures aimed at spurring domestic spending.

On Tuesday, China’s central bank announced broad monetary stimulus and property market support measures as authorities look to restore confidence in the economy.

“Whether that will work remains to be seen because a lot of the structural problems in the property sector remain persistent,” ADB Chief Economist Albert Park said at a briefing.

“It may take more effort and work by their government” to alleviate concerns of consumers and investors, Park said, adding “more proactive government policy would be helpful.”

Park also said the ADB was not so concerned about deflation in China as it sees prices recovering.

Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve kicked off its own easing cycle with a hefty half-percentage-point rate cut.

“With the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut, central banks have more space to ease, and we expect more of them to do so,” Park said.

The ADB kept its 2024 growth forecast for China at 4.8%, below the government’s official target of about 5%. Growth for 2025 is still forecast at 4.5%.

“The PRC (People’s Republic of China) growth forecast is retained despite the prolonged downturn in the property sector, on the assumption that further fiscal and monetary easing will help sustain the economy,” Park said.
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CIREBON, Indonesia — A G7-backed push to close coal power plants in emerging markets is facing further delays after a July deadline passed without a deal on the early closure of an Indonesian power plant that would be the first to shut under the initiative.

The push against coal comes under the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with Indonesia, Senegal, South Africa and Vietnam that call for billions of dollars in investments, grants and loans from G7 members, multilateral banks and private lenders to help them transition to low-carbon economies.

Cutting emissions from coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, is seen as a crucial element of the JETPs if the world is to stave off the worst impacts of climate change.

But a deal on the early shutdown of coal power plants in South Africa remains elusive amid its struggles with rolling blackouts, and hope for proof of concept has turned to Indonesia’s 660 megawatt Cirebon-1 plant in West Java province, 220 km east of capital Jakarta.

The legal and financial implications of closing Cirebon-1 are a stumbling block though. Jakarta is worried, too, that costs for replacing it with renewable energy could reach $1.3 billion, mostly in subsidies to cover more expensive renewable power generation, according to the finance ministry.

A new government is taking office in October as well and that could further dent the chance of a deal on Cirebon, said Fabby Tumiwa, a renewables expert and member of the technical team advising Indonesia on its JETP.

“If this is not signed before Oct. 20, I am worried that this matter will be overlooked,” Fabby said, citing calls by President-elect Prabowo Subianto for self-sufficiency and energy security that suggest a commitment to coal, which generates two-thirds of Indonesia’s electricity.

Prabowo, who takes office on that date, has not commented on Cirebon and has rarely discussed his energy policy, though the retirement of coal power is mentioned in his campaign pledges.

Prabowo’s team has not responded to requests for comment.

Under Indonesia’s JETP, richer nations have pledged $20 billion to help the Southeast Asian nation with its energy transition, although little of that money has been disbursed.

Legal concerns

Earlier this month, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the outgoing government was trying to close the Cirebon deal as soon as possible, without giving details.

David Elzinga, team leader for the Asian Development Bank’s regional Energy Transition Mechanism program that is working on the early shutdown scheme, said his group was seeking a binding deal on Cirebon acceptable to both the outgoing and incoming administrations.

“Indonesia has positioned itself to be a leader … It’s really important now that we get the deal done,” Elzinga said.

A deal on Cirebon is crucial for the ADB’s regional ETM program as it plans similar deals in countries including Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as for other plants in Indonesia.

To get there, state utility Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) and plant operator PT Cirebon Electric Power (CEP) need to reach a new power purchase agreement, which they failed to do by July, CEP Director Joseph Pangalila told Reuters.

The need for stronger legal protections and a clear road map for retiring coal plants was the main problem, PLN said, given that power generation costs could rise by nearly 90%.

PLN directors also fear a deal could expose them to future criminal charges if anti-graft investigators see the transaction as burdening the state with losses, JETP advisor Fabby said.

Rachmat Kaimuddin, deputy minister overseeing power infrastructure, acknowledged this at a recent forum, saying stakeholders were considering the legal repercussions that might arise from any closures.

“If we’re not careful, some people can get into trouble because it can create what they call state loss,” he said.

In June, a former chief executive of state energy firm Pertamina was sentenced to nine years in jail for signing a long-term gas contract that a corruption court said caused state losses of $114 million.

Others to follow

“We are anxious that it needs to get done, but at the same time what is important is that the first transaction be done in the best possible manner,” said Ramesh Subramaniam, ADB director general and head of the bank’s sectors group.

A number of private banks are lined up to invest and a series of new deals also could be started once Cirebon is done, with the ADB having already looked at about 30 other plants in Indonesia, he said.

“Although this has taken time, we have learnt a lot … and our very clear feeling is the next ones to come will be considerably easier.”

Cirebon-1 is a fairly new plant that started up in 2012. A deal would mean it stops operations in 2035 instead of 2042.

Despite running cleaner than older plants, emissions from Cirebon and others around Jakarta are often blamed for Indonesia’s chronic pollution, and some of the locals in neighboring fishing villages would be happy to see it go.

Fisherman Amin, 64, blamed the plant and coal unloading at its jetty for pollution and a scarcity of fish in nearby waters.

“When they first opened, the water was fine, but it became increasingly murky. The green mussel farms here didn’t have any harvest in the past two years,” he said.

“From the beginning of construction, I was against it.”
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Taipei, Taiwan — A report released on Wednesday finds that Hong Kong’s national security law, enacted in July 2020, has eroded academic freedom in the former British colony.

The report, co-authored by Human Rights Watch, and the Washington-based advocacy organization Hong Kong Democracy Council, said university authorities have imposed greater control and limitations on student activities and that students and faculty members are increasingly exercising self-censorship to avoid getting into trouble.

“Students, academics, and administrators, especially those from Hong Kong studying contemporary socio-political issues, feel as if they are living under a microscope,” the report says.

Some analysts say the opaque definition of what constitutes a violation of the security law has created a chilling effect among students and faculty members at Hong Kong universities.

“When the red line isn’t clear, there will be a pervasive sense of fear, and students and faculty members will try to make adjustments to ensure they don’t get into trouble,” Maya Wang, the associate China director at Human Rights Watch, told VOA by phone.

The report said Hong Kong’s eight public universities have been managed by people who hold views favored by Beijing following the imposition of the law in 2020. Since then, university officials have increased crackdowns on student unions and banned symbols or events viewed as promoting pro-democracy values.

“University officials have punished students for holding peaceful protests and gatherings, and have broadly censored student publications, communications, and events,” the report reads.

Wang at Human Rights Watch said since many college students and academics were involved in 2019 protests over an extradition bill, one of the Chinese government’s priorities following the implementation of the law is to “impose ideological control” over universities.

“The decline of academic freedom in Hong Kong’s universities is part of Beijing’s attempt to impose ideological control over the entire city,” she told VOA.

Exercising self-censorship

Most of the 33 students and academics interviewed for the report said self-censorship is a common practice at universities in Hong Kong, especially on socio-political topics related to China and Hong Kong.

“They do this when expressing themselves in classrooms, when writing and researching academic articles, and when inviting speakers for academic conferences,” the report says, adding that academics teaching Hong Kong and China current affairs feel “especially vulnerable.”

In some cases, university officials have asked academics in the social science field to stop offering courses on topics that Beijing considers sensitive. Others face censorship imposed by university administrators or academic publishers.

Some academics said the prevalence of self-censorship at universities in Hong Kong will reduce international understanding of the dynamics in China.

“Hong Kong was always an important space that gives the international community some insight into what’s happening in Hong Kong and the broader China, but that space is now rapidly disappearing,” Lokman Tsui, a research fellow at the University of Toronto’s Citizen Lab and a former journalism professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, told VOA by phone.

The law’s negative impact on academic freedom in Hong Kong seems to differ between academics in different fields. “Some said [the NSL] affected everything they do; others said it has very little impact,” the report says.

Since university management is stacked with supporters of the Chinese government’s position, the report says university administrators have worked with Chinese and Hong Kong authorities to harass, intimidate or even remove academics voicing different opinions.

“The government does that by defaming and intimidating those academics perceived to hold liberal or pro-democracy views in the state-owned media and denying or not issuing visas to foreign academics expressing such opinions,” the report says, adding that universities would then fire, let go or deny tenure to these academics.

Human Rights Watch and Hong Kong Democracy Council said the Chinese government’s efforts to “cleanse” universities in Hong Kong have led to a “harmonization” of opinion in academia in Hong Kong. They also help amplify Chinese and Hong Kong authorities’ claim that pro-democracy voices are now “in the minority.”

“The Chinese government’s overall intention has been to ‘cleanse’ the universities [and] the result is a sanitized version of higher education compliant with the Party’s views, which so far continues to deliver a high-caliber education,” the report says.
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Washington — China, which has long influenced Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups, is pressuring the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, or MNDAA — part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that includes the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) — to avoid aligning with other opposition forces that China perceives as Western-backed, experts say.

The MNDAA, also known as the Kokang ethnic armed group, whose members are Mandarin-speaking Han Chinese native to Kokang, reposted a statement on social media confirming their alliance with China.

“Our political red line is not to form alliances or work together with those who are against China,” read the statement, which was briefly posted Sept. 4 and reposted on Sept. 19.

Analysts say that Beijing’s pressure on ethnic armed groups, especially the MNDAA, reflects its strategic interests in maintaining control over Myanmar’s political landscape. Strategically located along Myanmar’s northeastern border with China, the MNDAA is being pushed to sever ties with opposition forces that Beijing views as having U.S. support.

China used its economic and political leverage when it reportedly cut off trade and supplies to Laukkai, the capital of the Kokang region, to create distance between the MNDAA and the National Unity Government (NUG) — the pro-democracy shadow government leading the fight against the ruling junta.

“The MNDAA’s statement is a follow-up to China’s warning that the ‘three bottom lines’ must not be crossed,” said Than Soe Naing, a veteran political analyst based in Myanmar.

The “three bottom lines,” articulated by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in August, call for Myanmar to avoid civil strife, remain part of ASEAN, and prevent external interference. 

According to a political analyst based in Yangon who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation, there is a perception in China that the National Unity Government and certain resistance forces, as well as some ethnic armed organizations, are close to the United States and are receiving U.S. support.

“This policy reflects China’s emphasis on preventing external forces from interfering in Burma’s affairs, which Beijing views as critical to its regional strategy,” said political analyst Than Soe Naing, using an alternative name for Myanmar.

So far, Beijing has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement, despite the group’s request for China’s help to resolve the conflict and its willingness to cease fighting and cooperate with Beijing to negotiate a solution to Myanmar’s crisis. Myanmar also has not commented on the MNDAA’s statement.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military continues airstrikes in northern Shan State. According to a Sept. 24 MNDAA social media post,a recent strike killed one civilian and injured 16 in Lashio, former headquarters of the junta’s Northeastern Command. 

Beijing’s interests in Myanmar

Frequent visits by Chinese officials to Myanmar have reinforced perceptions that Beijing is siding with Myanmar’s military because it perceives the opposition groups to be in alignment with the United States, observers say.

“China sees the NUG and the People’s Defense Forces as Western-backed entities, and for China, that is a red line,” said Thomas Kean, senior consultant for Myanmar at the International Crisis Group.

According to Hla Kyaw Zaw, a China-based expert on China-Myanmar relations, Myanmar offers China a valuable connection to the Indian Ocean, providing an essential trade route that would allow Beijing to compete more effectively in the region with the United States.

“If Myanmar is stable, China’s southwestern land-locked provinces will have a safe and secure outlet to the sea,” Hla Kyaw Zaw explained. “Beijing wants these initiatives to move forward quickly.”

China is the largest investor in Myanmar, and the internal conflict is “not conducive to foreign investment and trade,” according to a Stimson Center report.

That said, Kean told VOA that despite MNDAA’s public stance on China, the group may still maintain limited cooperation with resistance forces to secure its territorial interests.

Nan Lwin, head of the Myanmar China studies program at the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, said, “If China is to be credible for the Myanmar peace process, it will need to have a multi-country approach.”

Balancing act for opposition

Earlier this year, the National Unity Government, or NUG, issued its first formal policy statement on Beijing, pledging to safeguard Chinese investments and enterprise as resistance forces continue to gain ground in areas near the Chinese border. 

However, the Yangon-based analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity said this policy is insufficient to win over China, which seeks complete control in the region and wants to prevent any outside influence, particularly from the United States, near its strategic access point to the Indian Ocean.

“The more the conflict escalates on its border, the greater the risk of disagreements between China and the U.S. on Myanmar,” Kean said.

 
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