The Islamic State’s affiliate in Afghanistan – seemingly pushed to the brink last year following unrelenting pressure from the U.S. and Afghan militaries, and by multiple Taliban offenses – appears to have recovered and may soon look to strike further afield, according to U.S. military and intelligence officials.The turnaround for IS-Khorasan, as the group’s Afghan affiliate is known, contrasts with its waning fortunes just over a year ago, when U.S. officials estimated it had lost “up to half its force” while suffering a string of defeats in Nangarhar and Kunar provinces.Stripped of its key territories, U.S. intelligence estimates at the time suggested IS-Khorasan was down to as few as 1,000 fighters. So too, there were growing questions about its offensive capabilities.FILE – Afghan security forces take part in an ongoing operation against Islamic State (IS) militants in the Achin district of Nangarhar province, Nov. 25, 2019.“Sleeper cells are active in other parts of the country, particularly in Kabul,” the U.N. report added, noting that is where new IS-Khorasan leader Shahab al-Muhajir, also known as Sanaullah, is based.Estimates from global intelligence services now put the number of IS-Khorasan fighters at between 1,000 and 2,500. While not the 5,000 fighters it once boasted, it has been enough for the group to carry out a series of high-profile attacks, including the 20-hour-long assault on a prison in the eastern Afghan city of Jalalabad this past August, which killed at least 29 people as well as November’s attack on Kabul University, which killed at least 19.FILE – A member of Afghan security forces inspects the site of an attack on a jail compound in Jalalabad, Aug. 3, 2020.Some intelligence services of U.N. member states also suspect IS-Khorasan is getting help from an unusual source — the Haqqani Network, which maintains ties with both the Taliban and IS rival al-Qaida.One intelligence service told the U.N. that the new IS-Khorasan leader, al-Muhajir, was once a mid-level Haqqani commander and has maintained close ties with his former associates.Those ties have paid off, the service said, with the Haqqanis providing IS-Khorasan “key expertise and access to networks” as it sought to recover from losses in its former Afghan strongholds.
 
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